NBA betting thread

[David.]

staying away from Indiana Washington Houston.

I like Philadelphia now. they're -3.8 since ishs return, compared to -12 on the season.

 

[The Wizard of Moz]

Tonight is exactly why I don't bet on the NBA

Thought the under in the Cavs-Warriors was a sure thing

¯\_(ツ)_/¯

 

[bigfoot5415]

Inconsistency hurts. This season I have stayed away from Houston, LAC (until recently), Wizards & memphis. All of which were big winners for me last year. I personally will bet 2-3 games a night at a low amount ($5-10), possibly bet big on one depending on matchup ($25), and a small parlay (price varies by # of games for me).

Philly (-10.5)
Pistons (-3)...unless of course Butler explodes, but id have to imagine Detroit will be coming off a high from beating GSW.
The over for Boston v Dallas at 203 looks pretty good. I would also consider (but not lock) our under of 209.

Meh 2-2.

 

[David.]

Meh 2-2.

Same

 

[David.]

Sxers, raptors.

6-10 so far

 

[David.]

San Antonio and Detroit tonight.

2-0 yesterday

 

[The Wizard of Moz]

With the way LeBron and this team is, figuring out which games he'll sit and the ones he'll play is a total crapshoot.

Initially the team wanted to give guys off immediately before or after 2 rest days so they'll have an extended break, but now they seem to be moving away from that. There's decent odds he could sit any of these final 12 games.

I feel like there is money to be made on the Cavs if betting before LBJ announced out. We must crack this code @David.

 

[shoes22]

If you don't mind, I'm just going to hijack this thread to post my odds for the rest of the series. This is what my model predicts for the first round of the playoffs:

Cleveland Cavaliers (1) vs. Detroit Pistons (8)
Cavs in 4: 36.00%
Cavs in 5: 33.60%
Cavs in 6: 17.25%
Cavs in 7: 8.47%
Pistons in 7: 2.12%
Pistons in 6: 1.61%
Pistons in 5: 0.70%
Pistons in 4: 0.25%

Overall Odds:
Cavs win series: 95.32% likely
Pistons win series: 4.68% likely

Toronto Raptors (2) vs. Indiana Pacers (7)
Raptors in 4: 18.88%
Raptors in 5: 32.33%
Raptors in 6: 17.93%
Raptors in 7: 17.42%
Pacers in 7: 4.63%
Pacers in 6: 6.03%
Pacers in 5: 1.89%
Pacers in 4: 0.89%

Overall Odds:
Raptors win series: 86.56% likely
Pacers win series: 13.44% likely

Miami Heat (3) vs. Charlotte Hornets (6)
Heat in 4: 4.71%
Heat in 5: 14.42%
Heat in 6: 11.65%
Heat in 7: 20.23%
Hornets in 7: 12.40%
Hornets in 6: 20.41%
Hornets in 5: 10.06%
Hornets in 4: 6.10%

Overall Odds:
Heat win series: 51.02% likely
Hornets win series: 48.98% likely

Atlanta Hawks (4) vs. Boston Celtics (5)
Hawks in 4: 7.18%
Hawks in 5: 19.18%
Hawks in 6: 14.26%
Hawks in 7: 21.59%
Celtics in 7: 10.64%
Celtics in 6: 16.25%
Celtics in 5: 6.98%
Celtics in 4: 3.92%

Overall Odds:
Hawks win series: 62.22% likely
Celtics win series: 37.78% likely

Golden State Warriors (1) vs. Houston Rockets (8)
Warriors in 4: 36.04%
Warriors in 5: 37.54%
Warriors in 6: 14.53%
Warriors in 7: 8.58%
Rockets in 7: 1.28%
Rockets in 6: 1.50%
Rockets in 5: 0.38%
Rockets in 4: 0.16%

Overall Odds:
Warriors win series: 96.68% likely
Rockets win series: 3.32% likely

San Antonio Spurs (2) vs. Memphis Grizzlies (7)
Spurs in 4: 51.49% likely
Spurs in 5: 34.96% likely
Spurs in 6: 9.22% likely
Spurs in 7: 3.55% likely
Grizzlies in 7: 0.31% likely
Grizzlies in 6: 0.36% likely
Grizzlies in 5: 0.07% likely
Grizzlies in 4: 0.03% likely

Overall Odds:
Spurs win series: 99.23% likely
Grizzlies win series: 0.77% likely

Oklahoma City Thunder (3) vs. Dallas Mavericks (6)
Thunder in 4: 23.41%
Thunder in 5: 35.10%
Thunder in 6: 17.47%
Thunder in 7: 14.87%
Mavericks in 7: 3.26%
Mavericks in 6: 4.17%
Mavericks in 5: 1.18%
Mavericks in 4: 0.54%

Overall Odds:
Thunder win series: 90.85% likely
Mavericks win series: 9.15% likely

LA Clippers (4) vs. Portland Trailblazers (5)
Clippers in 4: 10.21%
Clippers in 5: 23.64%
Clippers in 6: 16.27%
Clippers in 7: 21.35%
Trailblazers in 7: 8.72%
Trailblazers in 6: 12.45%
Trailblazers in 5: 4.82%
Trailblazers in 4: 2.54%

Overall Odds:
Clippers win series: 71.47% likely
Trailblazers win series: 28.53% likely

What does this mean in general? The West is very top-heavy while the East is considerably more competitive.

 

[gijimbo]

If you don't mind, I'm just going to hijack this thread to post my odds for the rest of the series. This is what my model predicts for the first round of the playoffs:

Cleveland Cavaliers (1) vs. Detroit Pistons (8)
Cavs in 4: 36.00%
Cavs in 5: 33.60%
Cavs in 6: 17.25%
Cavs in 7: 8.47%
Pistons in 7: 2.12%
Pistons in 6: 1.61%
Pistons in 5: 0.70%
Pistons in 4: 0.25%

Overall Odds:
Cavs win series: 95.32% likely
Pistons win series: 4.68% likely

Toronto Raptors (2) vs. Indiana Pacers (7)
Raptors in 4: 18.88%
Raptors in 5: 32.33%
Raptors in 6: 17.93%
Raptors in 7: 17.42%
Pacers in 7: 4.63%
Pacers in 6: 6.03%
Pacers in 5: 1.89%
Pacers in 4: 0.89%

Overall Odds:
Raptors win series: 86.56% likely
Pacers win series: 13.44% likely

Miami Heat (3) vs. Charlotte Hornets (6)
Heat in 4: 4.71%
Heat in 5: 14.42%
Heat in 6: 11.65%
Heat in 7: 20.23%
Hornets in 7: 12.40%
Hornets in 6: 20.41%
Hornets in 5: 10.06%
Hornets in 4: 6.10%

Overall Odds:
Heat win series: 51.02% likely
Hornets win series: 48.98% likely

Atlanta Hawks (4) vs. Boston Celtics (5)
Hawks in 4: 7.18%
Hawks in 5: 19.18%
Hawks in 6: 14.26%
Hawks in 7: 21.59%
Celtics in 7: 10.64%
Celtics in 6: 16.25%
Celtics in 5: 6.98%
Celtics in 4: 3.92%

Overall Odds:
Hawks win series: 62.22% likely
Celtics win series: 37.78% likely

Golden State Warriors (1) vs. Houston Rockets (8)
Warriors in 4: 36.04%
Warriors in 5: 37.54%
Warriors in 6: 14.53%
Warriors in 7: 8.58%
Rockets in 7: 1.28%
Rockets in 6: 1.50%
Rockets in 5: 0.38%
Rockets in 4: 0.16%

Overall Odds:
Warriors win series: 96.68% likely
Rockets win series: 3.32% likely

San Antonio Spurs (2) vs. Memphis Grizzlies (7)
Spurs in 4: 51.49% likely
Spurs in 5: 34.96% likely
Spurs in 6: 9.22% likely
Spurs in 7: 3.55% likely
Grizzlies in 7: 0.31% likely
Grizzlies in 6: 0.36% likely
Grizzlies in 5: 0.07% likely
Grizzlies in 4: 0.03% likely

Overall Odds:
Spurs win series: 99.23% likely
Grizzlies win series: 0.77% likely

Oklahoma City Thunder (3) vs. Dallas Mavericks (6)
Thunder in 4: 23.41%
Thunder in 5: 35.10%
Thunder in 6: 17.47%
Thunder in 7: 14.87%
Mavericks in 7: 3.26%
Mavericks in 6: 4.17%
Mavericks in 5: 1.18%
Mavericks in 4: 0.54%

Overall Odds:
Thunder win series: 90.85% likely
Mavericks win series: 9.15% likely

LA Clippers (4) vs. Portland Trailblazers (5)
Clippers in 4: 10.21%
Clippers in 5: 23.64%
Clippers in 6: 16.27%
Clippers in 7: 21.35%
Trailblazers in 7: 8.72%
Trailblazers in 6: 12.45%
Trailblazers in 5: 4.82%
Trailblazers in 4: 2.54%

Overall Odds:
Clippers win series: 71.47% likely
Trailblazers win series: 28.53% likely

What does this mean in general? The West is very top-heavy while the East is considerably more competitive.

If it isn't too time intensive, you should go series by series through the finals advancing the teams that had the better chance to win the initial series.

So you could give a finals predictions and one for each preceding round.

 

[shoes22]

If it isn't too time intensive, you should go series by series through the finals advancing the teams that had the better chance to win the initial series.

So you could give a finals predictions and one for each preceding round.

I would, but since my model is influenced and relies a good portion on actual game data (as you'll see below), it's not worth creating "fake" data the further I project the playoffs out. In any case, here are the updated odds for all the games that played today. Bolded text means the most likely scenario, italicized text is the previous most likely scenario (if changed), and the +/- in parentheses indicates how much the likelihood of that scenario has increased or decreased since the previous game.

Toronto Raptors (2) vs. Indiana Pacers (7)
Raptors in 4: 0.0% (-18.88%)
Raptors in 5: 9.64% (-22.69%)
Raptors in 6: 14.5% (-3.43%)
Raptors in 7: 23.88% (+6.46%)
Pacers in 7: 10.73% (+6.10%)
Pacers in 6: 20.64% (+14.61%)
Pacers in 5: 11.23% (+9.34%)
Pacers in 4: 9.38% (+8.49%)

Overall Odds:
Raptors win series: 48.03% likely (-38.53%)
Pacers win series: 51.97% likely (+38.53%)

Atlanta Hawks (4) vs. Boston Celtics (5)
Hawks in 4: 11.2% (+4.02%)
Hawks in 5: 26.88% (+7.7%)
Hawks in 6: 15.7% (+1.44%)
Hawks in 7: 21.92% (+0.33%)
Celtics in 7: 9.4% (-1.24%)
Celtics in 6: 11.66% (-4.59%)
Celtics in 5: 3.24% (-3.74%)
Celtics in 4: 0.0% (-3.92%)

Overall Odds:
Hawks win series: 75.7% likely (+13.48%)
Celtics win series: 24.3% likely (-13.48%)

Golden State Warriors (1) vs. Houston Rockets (8)
Warriors in 4: 51.75% (+15.71%)
Warriors in 5: 35.88% (-1.66%)
Warriors in 6: 8.38% (-6.15%)
Warriors in 7: 3.37% (-5.21%)
Rockets in 7: 0.29% (-0.99%)
Rockets in 6: 0.29% (-1.21%)
Rockets in 5: 0.04% (-0.34%)
Rockets in 4: 0.0% (-0.16%)

Overall Odds:
Warriors win series: 99.38% likely (+2.7%)
Rockets win series: 0.62% likely (-2.7%)

Oklahoma City Thunder (3) vs. Dallas Mavericks (6)
Thunder in 4: 35.91% (+12.5%)
Thunder in 5: 38.26% (+3.16%)
Thunder in 6: 13.91% (-3.56%)
Thunder in 7: 8.66% (-6.21%)
Mavericks in 7: 1.53% (-1.73%)
Mavericks in 6: 1.45% (-2.72%)
Mavericks in 5: 0.28% (-0.9%)
Mavericks in 4: 0.0% (-0.54%)

Overall Odds:
Thunder win series: 96.74% likely (+5.89%)
Mavericks win series: 3.26% likely (-5.89%)

 

[Evgeni]

The problem with this model is that you can't factor in things like the Raptors being a really bad playoff team. You can't just look at previous years either, because team members change, coaches change. Raptors with more or less the same team have consistently under performed in the playoffs.

 

[The Wizard of Moz]

The problem with this model is that you can't factor in things like the Raptors being a really bad playoff team. You can't just look at previous years either, because team members change, coaches change. Raptors with more or less the same team have consistently under performed in the playoffs.

Well I don't know how shoes' model works, but I would like to say a few things

Most importantly, it's a model. All models are going to have problems. Even for modeling simple things in life it's difficult to capture a model that fully describes a process. Models will have their strengths and weaknesses, and that's ok. A lot of times it would be too costly or unrealistic to try to capture every single dynamic in play, and there will always be lurking variables out there that most don't even know is affecting a process.

That goes beyond sports. My current job has me modeling investments. One assumption that a lot of models in the industry make is that investors are risk-neutral (they neither sick nor avoid risky assets).

Logically, that assumption sucks. People on average are risk averse(they avoid risk). If people were risk-neutral CDs at banks would be extinct, and the insurance industry would be doomed.

But it turns out that assumption doesn't really affect the modeling of a lot of different assets that are already purchased, only ones that have a provision to be 'returned' under certain circumstances.

Would the model be better if we could capture the risk aversion of investors? Of course. But each investor is different. And capturing just how risk averse each investor is is extremely costly, time consuming, and I would argue misleading because it depends on the input of the investors and you could get a survey bias. That simplification saves a lot of time and money, and it turns out doesn't come up as an issue as often as one would initially think.

Ok back to the basketball world. I don't know how Shoes model works, but he absolutely can factor in the Raptors recent playoff history. But there are immediately a few problems:

• How much does past performance correlate into future performance?
• How do you quantify being 'really bad', and have 'really bad' teams in the past gone on to defy that label to win a championship. Moreover, does that even matter since these are different teams, different human beings entirely we are talking about.
• Like you said, different players, coaches also factor in. How does Demare Carroll affect the Raptors 'choke' factor? A hell of a lot less than LeBron James would. But how much less?
• How much of it has to do with youth? Do other teams with similar aged key contributors face such fates? And what age does this 'wear off' if it does?

Any time you add additional parameters to the model it becomes more complex. There are actually theorems out there about measuring if additional parameters are worth adding to a model. A trade off between complexity and accuracy.

Using the past seasons could also very easily lead to overfitting the data and getting a model that heavily favors those that have won in the past, and heavily punishes those who have lost early. Such a model would punish the Warriors last season because before that they were first round exits. Is such a model good, and the Warriors 'beat the odds?' I don't know, I don't model these things

But look how much complexity would be added, and questions that would arise from something as simple as a playoff adjustment factor.

Models are models. Simplifications of real life processes. Understanding their strengths and weaknesses is vital, and models can still perform extremely well without capturing every statistical relationship out there.

 

[shoes22]

The problem with this model is that you can't factor in things like the Raptors being a really bad playoff team. You can't just look at previous years either, because team members change, coaches change. Raptors with more or less the same team have consistently under performed in the playoffs.

That’s the thing though...my model is accounting for the Raptors “choking”. Without making it needlessly super complicated, the easiest way to account for something like that is by factoring in how previous games between these two teams went, who played, and what happened when they played. It’s easily the best predictor of how the series will progress.

With that said, even that is not enough to entirely offset the Raptors team strength this year as a whole. These are seven game series for a reason.

I should also add I’m not basing any of these odds or predictions on previous years data. Everything is based off the 2015-2016 season only.

 

[shoes22]

Updated odds after today's games!

Cleveland Cavaliers (1) vs. Detroit Pistons (8)
Cavs in 4: 45.00% (+9%)
Cavs in 5: 33.00% (-0.6%)
Cavs in 6: 13.69% (-3.56%)
Cavs in 7: 5.75% (-2.72%)
Pistons in 7: 1.44% (-0.68%)
Pistons in 6: 0.88% (-0.73%)
Pistons in 5: 0.25% (-0.45%)
Pistons in 4: 0.0% (-0.25%)

Overall Odds:
Cavs win series: 97.44% likely (+2.12%)
Pistons win series: 2.56% likely (-2.12%)

Miami Heat (3) vs. Charlotte Hornets (6)
Heat in 4: 11.2% (+6.49%)
Heat in 5: 26.88% (+12.46%)
Heat in 6: 15.7% (+4.02%)
Heat in 7: 21.92% (+1.69%)
Hornets in 7: 9.4% (-3%)
Hornets in 6: 11.66% (-8.75%)
Hornets in 5: 3.24% (-6.82%)
Hornets in 4: 0.0% (-6.10%)

Overall Odds:
Heat win series: 75.7% likely (+24.68%)
Hornets win series: 24.3% likely (-24.68%)

San Antonio Spurs (2) vs. Memphis Grizzlies (7)
Spurs in 4: 55.97% (+4.48%)
Spurs in 5: 33.53% (-1.43%)
Spurs in 6: 7.44% (-1.78%)
Spurs in 7: 2.6% (-0.95%)
Grizzlies in 7: 0.23% (-0.08%)
Grizzlies in 6: 0.21% (-0.15%)
Grizzlies in 5: 0.03% (-0.04%)
Grizzlies in 4: 0.0% (-0.03%)

Overall Odds:
Spurs win series: 99.54% likely (+0.31%)
Grizzlies win series: 0.46% likely (-0.31%)

LA Clippers (4) vs. Portland Trailblazers (5)
Clippers in 4: 14.78% (+4.57%)
Clippers in 5: 30.37% (+6.73%)
Clippers in 6: 16.70% (+0.43%)
Clippers in 7: 20.00% (-1.35%)
Trailblazers in 7: 7.40% (-1.32%)
Trailblazers in 6: 8.54% (-3.91%)
Trailblazers in 5: 2.21% (-2.61%)
Trailblazers in 4: 0.0% (-2.54%)

Overall Odds:
Clippers win series: 81.85% likely (+10.38%)
Trailblazers win series: 18.15% likely (-10.38%)

 

[shoes22]

How did the results of today's games change the projected outcome of each series since Game 1? Not one bit. Take a look:

Toronto Raptors (2) vs. Indiana Pacers (7)
Raptors in 4: 0.0%
Raptors in 5: 14.18% (+4.54%)
Raptors in 6: 18.33% (+3.83%)
Raptors in 7: 27.03% (+3.15%)
Pacers in 7: 11.58% (+0.85%)
Pacers in 6: 19.81% (-0.83%)
Pacers in 5: 9.08% (-2.15%)
Pacers in 4: 0.0% (-9.38%)

Overall Odds:
Raptors win series: 59.53% likely (+11.5%)
Pacers win series: 40.47% likely (-11.5%)

Golden State Warriors (1) vs. Houston Rockets (8)
Warriors in 4: 56.25% (+4.5%)
Warriors in 5: 34.5% (-1.38%)
Warriors in 6: 6.56% (-1.82%)
Warriors in 7: 2.36% (-1.01%)
Rockets in 7: 0.21% (-0.08%)
Rockets in 6: 0.13% (-0.16%)
Rockets in 5: 0.0% (-0.04%)
Rockets in 4: 0.0%

Overall Odds:
Warriors win series: 99.67% likely (+0.29%)
Rockets win series: 0.33% likely (-0.29%)

Oklahoma City Thunder (3) vs. Dallas Mavericks (6)
Thunder in 4: 0.0% (-35.91%)
Thunder in 5: 28.8% (-9.46%)
Thunder in 6: 27.36% (+13.45%)
Thunder in 7: 25.34% (+16.68%)
Mavericks in 7: 6.34% (+4.81%)
Mavericks in 6: 8.96% (+7.51%)
Mavericks in 5: 3.2% (+2.92%)
Mavericks in 4: 0.0%

Overall Odds:
Thunder win series: 81.50% likely (-15.24%)
Mavericks win series: 18.50% likely (+15.24%)