NBA betting thread

[shoes22]

Alright folks, now that the 1st round is in the books it's time to hold my feet to the fire and see how well my model has done so far. From the initial post on April 18th the model correctly identified the overall winner in 7 out of 8 playoff series. The one it got wrong was the Trailblazers advancing, but accounting for the Chris Paul and Blake Griffin injuries would make it 8 for 8.

It predicted the exact outcome in 4 of 8 playoff series. (Damn you Charlotte for not winning Game 6.) In the 4 series it got wrong, it first predicted the correct outcomes of Raptors in 7 after Game 1, Heat in 7 after Game 3, Trailblazers in 6 after Game 4, and Hawks in 6 after Game 5.

Overall the accuracy was not too impressive, but the real strength of the model is less predicting overall series (which is the result of multiplying odds), but moreso predicting individual games. Through that lens it does much better. The model correctly identified the winner in 39 out of the 44 first round games. The ones it got wrong were Indiana beating Toronto in game 1, Dallas beating OKC in game 2, Houston beating Golden State in game 3, Charlotte beating Miami in game 5, and Miami beating Charlotte in game 6.

Now that I've sufficiently bored you with all that, here's how the second round looks after last night:

Golden State Warriors (1) vs. Portland Trailblazers (5)
Warriors in 4: 21.95% (+7.14%)
Warriors in 5: 30.73% (+4.86%)
Warriors in 6: 18.48% (-0.49%)
Warriors in 7: 15.09% (-3.13%)
Trailblazers in 7: 6.47% (-1.34%)
Trailblazers in 6: 5.53% (-3.07%)
Trailblazers in 5: 1.74% (-2.15%)
Trailblazers in 4: 0.0% (-1.82%)

Game 2 Odds:
Warriors win 70%/Trailblazers win 30%

Overall Odds:
Warriors win series: 86.26% likely (+8.38%)
Trailblazers win series: 13.74% likely (-8.38%)

And the series you've been waiting for...

Toronto Raptors (2) vs. Miami Heat (3)
Raptors in 4: 4.41%
Raptors in 5: 13.36%
Raptors in 6: 11.31%
Raptors in 7: 19.35%
Heat in 7: 12.90%
Heat in 6: 20.89%
Heat in 5: 11.02%
Heat in 4: 6.76%

Game 1 Odds:
Raptors win 60%/Heat win 40%

Overall Odds:
Raptors win series: 48.42% likely
Heat win series: 51.58% likely

 

[Pioneer10]

I don't know if Miami should be favored in any series where they don't have homecourt: there are terrible on the road

 

[Xearoii]

39 out of the 44 first round games

That's pretty damn impressive.

Now incorporate Vegas spreads, and get to 39/44. You can print money haha

 

[shoes22]

I don't know if Miami should be favored in any series where they don't have homecourt: there are terrible on the road

Generally, they’re not. However if they win all their home games, they only need to win 1 out of 3 games in Toronto to take the series in 6.

The home team is favored to win in every game of that series, but the home games in Toronto are projected to be roughly 4% closer games overall than the ones in Miami, so the odds end up looking how they do.

 

[shoes22]

And away we go!

Cleveland Cavaliers (1) vs. Atlanta Hawks (4)
Cavs in 4: 26.80% (+7.37%)
Cavs in 5: 34.85% (+4.14%)
Cavs in 6: 17.08% (-1.73%)
Cavs in 7: 13.01% (-3.6%)
Hawks in 7: 3.88% (-1.36%)
Hawks in 6: 3.49% (-2.47%)
Hawks in 5: 0.89% (-1.33%)
Hawks in 4: 0.0% (-1.02%)

Game 2 Odds:
Cavs win 77%/Hawks win 23%

Overall Odds:
Cavs win series: 91.74% likely (+6.18%)
Hawks win series: 8.26% likely (-6.18%)

San Antonio Spurs (2) vs. Oklahoma City Thunder (3)
Spurs in 4: 0.0% (-17.28%)
Spurs in 5: 15.45% (-16.95%)
Spurs in 6: 19.31% (+2.33%)
Spurs in 7: 28.20% (+9.63%)
Thunder in 7: 10.43% (+4.24%)
Thunder in 6: 18.74% (+11.84%)
Thunder in 5: 7.87% (+5.98%)
Thunder in 4: 0.0%

Game 3 Odds:
Spurs win 46%/Thunder win 54%

Overall Odds:
Spurs win series: 62.96% likely (-22.06%)
Thunder win series: 37.04% likely (+22.06%)

 

[FiveThous]

This is awesome work @shoes22, do you do work like this for fantasy sports?

 

[shoes22]

This is awesome work @shoes22, do you do work like this for fantasy sports?

Nope, for the time being only focusing on general NBA odds.

 

[FiveThous]

Nope, for the time being only focusing on general NBA odds.

Wagered a little bit on the money line of your favorites tonight, no pressure @shoes22.

 

[shoes22]

Wagered a little bit on the money line of your favorites tonight, no pressure @shoes22.

Oh lord...I probably should have put up a little disclaimer beforehand so I'm not held liable for any losses as a result of these odds

As for last night's games...no changes in projected outcome across the board. The Raptors losing last night makes winning Game 2 an absolute must-win for them if they want to stay in this series. They need to treat it like a Game 7. If Toronto wins game 2, the series resets and the projected odds more or less remain the same. If they lose, the Heat virtually guarantee a series victory and are projected to close out in either 4 or 5 games.

The Trailblazers blowing that big Game 2 lead last night is unfortunate. It would have made pushing the Curry-less Warriors to 6 or even 7 games the most likely outcome. As it is, the Blazers are still expected to win 1 of 2 games at home, and the Warriors are expected to close out in 5.

Toronto Raptors (2) vs. Miami Heat (3)
Raptors in 4: 0.0% (-4.41%)
Raptors in 5: 3.76% (-9.6%)
Raptors in 6: 6.88% (-4.43%)
Raptors in 7: 15.04% (-4.31%)
Heat in 7: 11.34% (-1.56%)
Heat in 6: 25.27% (+4.38%)
Heat in 5: 18.97% (+7.95%)
Heat in 4: 18.73% (+11.97%)

Game 2 Odds:
Raptors win 57%/Heat win 43%

Overall Odds:
Raptors win series: 25.68% likely (-22.74%)
Heat win series: 74.32% likely (+22.74%)

Golden State Warriors (1) vs. Portland Trailblazers (5)
Warriors in 4: 31.36% (+9.41%)
Warriors in 5: 34.50% (+3.77%)
Warriors in 6: 15.87% (-2.61%)
Warriors in 7: 11.00% (-4.09%)
Trailblazers in 7: 4.72% (-1.75%)
Trailblazers in 6: 2.56% (-2.97%)
Trailblazers in 5: 0.0% (-1.74%)
Trailblazers in 4: 0.0%

Game 3 Odds (assuming Curry isn't playing):
Warriors win 56%/Trailblazers win 44%

Overall Odds:
Warriors win series: 92.73% likely (+6.47%)
Trailblazers win series: 7.27% likely (-6.47%)

 

[FiveThous]

Oh lord...I probably should have put up a little disclaimer beforehand so I'm not held liable for any losses as a result of these odds

I've been gambling for ages shoes, I know better than to think there is anything close to a sure thing. I was mostly just razzing you.

 

[shoes22]

Cavs are movin' on up!

Cleveland Cavaliers (1) vs. Atlanta Hawks (4)
Cavs in 4: 38.44% (+11.64%)
Cavs in 5: 37.22% (+2.37%)
Cavs in 6: 13.21% (-3.87%)
Cavs in 7: 7.88% (-5.13%)
Hawks in 7: 2.09% (-1.79%)
Hawks in 6: 1.15% (-2.34%)
Hawks in 5: 0.0% (-0.89%)
Hawks in 4: 0.0%

Game 3 Odds:
Cavs win 62%/Hawks win 38%

Overall Odds:
Cavs win series: 96.75% likely (+5.01%)
Hawks win series: 3.25% likely (-5.01%)

 

[shoes22]

Toronto Raptors (2) vs. Miami Heat (3)
Raptors in 4: 0.0%
Raptors in 5: 6.98% (+3.22%)
Raptors in 6: 10.92% (+4.04%)
Raptors in 7: 20.27% (+5.23%)
Heat in 7: 15.29% (+3.95%)
Heat in 6: 28.37% (+3.1%)
Heat in 5: 18.17% (-0.8%)
Heat in 4: 0.0% (-18.73%)

Game 3 Odds:
Raptors win 35%/Heat win 65%

Overall Odds:
Raptors win series: 38.17% likely (+12.49%)
Heat win series: 61.83% likely (-12.49%)

 

[shoes22]

There's a reason they call Game 3's the momentum changers! After game 3s, the model becomes decidedly more confident in its predictions.

Cleveland Cavaliers (1) vs. Atlanta Hawks (4)
Cavs in 4: 63% (+24.56%)
Cavs in 5: 30.34% (-6.88%)
Cavs in 6: 4.20% (-9.01%)
Cavs in 7: 2.02% (-5.86%)
Hawks in 7: 0.44% (-1.65%)
Hawks in 6: 0.0% (-1.15%)
Hawks in 5: 0.0%
Hawks in 4: 0.0%

Overall Odds:
Cavs win series: 99.56% likely (+2.81%)
Hawks win series: 0.44% likely (-2.81%)


San Antonio Spurs (2) vs. Oklahoma City Thunder (3)
Spurs in 4: 0.0%
Spurs in 5: 36% (+20.55%)
Spurs in 6: 24.48% (+5.17%)
Spurs in 7: 24.57% (-3.63%)
Thunder in 7: 8.19% (-2.24%)
Thunder in 6: 6.76% (-11.98%)
Thunder in 5: 0.0% (-7.87%)
Thunder in 4: 0.0%

Game 4 Odds:
Spurs win 48%/Thunder win 52%

Overall Odds:
Spurs win series: 85.05% likely (+22.09%)
Thunder win series: 14.95% likely (-22.09%)

 

[FiveThous]

Who does the model like tonight?

 

[shoes22]

Who does the model like tonight?

Yeah sorry I was busy/slacking yesterday

The most important "momentum shifting" game to look at to me is the next Heat-Raptors game. It is a must-win for the Heat to have a chance to win this series. My odds still favor them for some reason with the Valanciunas/Whiteside washout, but if they don't win tonight it will be the first series my model was just dead wrong about after a promising start.

Here are the odds for all the remaining series:

San Antonio Spurs (2) vs. Oklahoma City Thunder (3)
Spurs in 4: 0.0%
Spurs in 5: 0.0% (-36%)
Spurs in 6: 30.15% (+5.67%)
Spurs in 7: 34.64% (+10.07%)
Thunder in 7: 17.06% (+8.1%)
Thunder in 6: 18.15% (+11.39%)
Thunder in 5: 0.0%
Thunder in 4: 0.0%

Game 5 Odds:
Spurs win 67%/Thunder win 33%

Overall Odds:
Spurs win series: 64.79% likely (-20.26%)
Thunder win series: 35.21% likely (+20.26%)


Toronto Raptors (2) vs. Miami Heat (3)
Raptors in 4: 0.0%
Raptors in 5: 23.18% (+16.2%)
Raptors in 6: 20.00% (+9.08%)
Raptors in 7: 25.51% (+5.24%)
Heat in 7: 16.31% (+1.02%)
Heat in 6: 14.99% (-13.38%)
Heat in 5: 0.0% (-18.17%)
Heat in 4: 0.0%

Game 4 Odds:
Raptors win 41%/Heat win 59%

Overall Odds:
Raptors win series: 68.70% likely (+30.53%)
Heat win series: 31.30% likely (-30.53%)


Golden State Warriors (1) vs. Portland Trailblazers (5)
Warriors in 4: 0.0% (-31.36%)
Warriors in 5: 35.36% (+0.86%)
Warriors in 6: 25.63% (+9.76%)
Warriors in 7: 21.52% (+10.52%)
Trailblazers in 7: 10.13% (+5.41%)
Trailblazers in 6: 7.37% (+4.81%)
Trailblazers in 5: 0.0%
Trailblazers in 4: 0.0%

Game 4 Odds:
Warriors win 52%/Trailblazers win 48%

Overall Odds:
Warriors win series: 82.50% likely (-10.23%)
Trailblazers win series: 17.5% likely (+10.23%)


How costly was the Trailblazers blowing Game 2? Just for fun, I decided to calculate what the odds would have been if the Blazers held on to win that game, everything else remaining the same:

Golden State Warriors (1) vs. Portland Trailblazers (5)
Warriors in 4: 0.0%
Warriors in 5: 0.0%
Warriors in 6: 18.39%
Warriors in 7: 28.97%
Trailblazers in 7: 13.63%
Trailblazers in 6: 23.65%
Trailblazers in 5: 15.36%
Trailblazers in 4: 0.0%

Overall Odds:
Warriors win series: 47.35% likely
Trailblazers win series: 52.65% likely

Of course, these projected odds are still with Curry not playing. If he came back and was able to play even close to his former level, the odds would tip several percentage in the Warriors favor. It's still interesting to look at nevertheless.