NBA betting thread

[Snarly]

Damn, now I know where the NBA refs are created.

 

[shoes22]

Yawn. No changes in the expected outcome tonight either.

Atlanta Hawks (4) vs. Boston Celtics (5)
Hawks in 4: 20.25% (+9.05%)
Hawks in 5: 34.65% (+7.77%)
Hawks in 6: 16.21% (+0.51%)
Hawks in 7: 16.73% (-5.19%)
Celtics in 7: 7.17% (-2.23%)
Celtics in 6: 4.99% (-6.67%)
Celtics in 5: 0.0% (-3.24%)
Celtics in 4: 0.0%

Overall Odds:
Hawks win series: 87.84% likely (+12.14%)
Celtics win series: 12.16% likely (-12.14%)

San Antonio Spurs (2) vs. Memphis Grizzlies (7)
Spurs in 4: 64.00% (+8.03%)
Spurs in 5: 29.44% (-4.09%)
Spurs in 6: 4.99% (-2.45%)
Spurs in 7: 1.38% (-1.22%)
Grizzlies in 7: 0.12% (-0.11%)
Grizzlies in 6: 0.06% (-0.15%)
Grizzlies in 5: 0.0% (-0.03%)
Grizzlies in 4: 0.0%

Overall Odds:
Spurs win series: 99.82% likely (+0.28%)
Grizzlies win series: 0.18% likely (-0.28%)

 

[shoes22]

Games last night all followed the status quo for the 3rd straight day!

Miami Heat (3) vs. Charlotte Hornets (6)
Heat in 4: 20.25% (+9.05%)
Heat in 5: 34.65% (+7.77%)
Heat in 6: 16.21% (+0.51%)
Heat in 7: 16.73% (-5.19%)
Hornets in 7: 7.17% (-2.23%)
Hornets in 6: 4.99% (-6.67%)
Hornets in 5: 0.0% (-3.24%)
Hornets in 4: 0.0%

Overall Odds:
Heat win series: 87.84% likely (+12.14%)
Hornets win series: 12.16% likely (-12.14%)

Cleveland Cavaliers (1) vs. Detroit Pistons (8)
Cavs in 4: 56.25% (+11.25%)
Cavs in 5: 30.00% (-3%)
Cavs in 6: 9.38% (-4.31%)
Cavs in 7: 3.25% (-2.5%)
Pistons in 7: 0.81% (-0.63%)
Pistons in 6: 0.31% (-0.57%)
Pistons in 5: 0.0% (-0.25%)
Pistons in 4: 0.0%

Overall Odds:
Cavs win series: 98.88% likely (+1.44%)
Pistons win series: 1.12% likely (-1.44%)

LA Clippers (4) vs. Portland Trailblazers (5)
Clippers in 4: 25.00% (+10.22%)
Clippers in 5: 37.5% (+7.13%)
Clippers in 6: 15.63% (-1.07%)
Clippers in 7: 14.06% (-5.94%)
Trailblazers in 7: 4.69% (-2.71%)
Trailblazers in 6: 3.13% (-5.41%)
Trailblazers in 5: 0.0% (-2.21%)
Trailblazers in 4: 0.0%

Overall Odds:
Clippers win series: 92.19% likely (+10.34%)
Trailblazers win series: 7.81% likely (-10.34%)

 

[The Wizard of Moz]

I'm really looking forward to seeing these odds for the next round when the series are more competitive haha

 

[shoes22]

Great day for NBA betting last night! As you'll see below, Game 3s are almost always the most important game when determining odds for a playoff series (Game 1 is the second-most important). The reason for that is it's the first chance the "underdog team" gets a chance to hold-serve on their home floor. Because the underdog team always has better percentage odds to win at home than on the road, Game 3s often either reset the dynamic of the series back to initial projections, or swings momentum far in the other direction as the dominant team goes in for the kill. As a result, there are big percentage fluctuations in all 3 games. Without further ado...


Toronto Raptors (2) vs. Indiana Pacers (7)
Raptors in 4: 0.0%
Raptors in 5: 40.5% (+26.32%)
Raptors in 6: 25.92% (+7.59%)
Raptors in 7: 21.22% (-5.81%)
Pacers in 7: 7.07% (-4.51%)
Pacers in 6: 5.29% (-14.52%)
Pacers in 5: 0.0% (-9.08%)
Pacers in 4: 0.0%

Overall Odds:
Raptors win series: 87.64% likely (+28.11%)
Pacers win series: 12.36% likely (-28.11%)


Oklahoma City Thunder (3) vs. Dallas Mavericks (6)
Thunder in 4: 0.0%
Thunder in 5: 54.4% (+25.6%)
Thunder in 6: 25.73% (-1.63%)
Thunder in 7: 15.24% (-10.1%)
Mavericks in 7: 2.69% (-3.65%)
Mavericks in 6: 1.94% (-7.02%)
Mavericks in 5: 0.0% (-3.2%)
Mavericks in 4: 0.0%

Overall Odds:
Thunder win series: 95.37% likely (+13.87%)
Mavericks win series: 4.63% likely (-13.87%)

Golden State Warriors (1) vs. Houston Rockets (8)
Warriors in 4: 0.0% (-56.25%)
Warriors in 5: 63.0% (+28.5%)
Warriors in 6: 23.8% (+17.24%)
Warriors in 7: 11.07% (+8.71%)
Rockets in 7: 1.23% (+1.02%)
Rockets in 6: 0.9% (+0.77%)
Rockets in 5: 0.0%
Rockets in 4: 0.0%

Overall Odds:
Warriors win series: 97.87% likely (-1.8%)
Rockets win series: 2.13% likely (+1.8%)

 

[shoes22]

Cleveland Cavaliers (1) vs. Detroit Pistons (8)
Cavs in 4: 75.0% (+18.75%)
Cavs in 5: 20.0% (-10%)
Cavs in 6: 3.75% (-5.63%)
Cavs in 7: 1.0% (-2.25%)
Pistons in 7: 0.25% (-0.56%)
Pistons in 6: 0.0% (-0.31%)
Pistons in 5: 0.0%
Pistons in 4: 0.0%

Overall Odds:
Cavs win series: 99.75% likely (+0.87%)
Pistons win series: 0.25% likely (-0.87%)

Atlanta Hawks (4) vs. Boston Celtics (5)
Hawks in 4: 0.0% (-20.25%)
Hawks in 5: 28.0% (-6.65%)
Hawks in 6: 21.6% (+5.39%)
Hawks in 7: 27.72% (+10.99%)
Celtics in 7: 11.88% (+4.71%)
Celtics in 6: 10.8% (+5.81%)
Celtics in 5: 0.0%
Celtics in 4: 0.0%

Overall Odds:
Hawks win series: 77.32% likely (-10.52%)
Celtics win series: 22.68% likely (+10.52%)

San Antonio Spurs (2) vs. Memphis Grizzlies (7)
Spurs in 4: 80.0% (+16%)
Spurs in 5: 18.4% (-11.04%)
Spurs in 6: 1.28% (-3.71%)
Spurs in 7: 0.29% (-1.09%)
Grizzlies in 7: 0.03% (-0.09%)
Grizzlies in 6: 0.0% (-0.06%)
Grizzlies in 5: 0.0%
Grizzlies in 4: 0.0%

Overall Odds:
Spurs win series: 99.97% likely (+0.15%)
Grizzlies win series: 0.03% likely (-0.15%)

 

[shoes22]

After the results from yesterday's games!

Toronto Raptors (2) vs. Indiana Pacers (7)
Raptors in 4: 0.0%
Raptors in 5: 0.0% (-40.5%)
Raptors in 6: 28.0% (+2.08%)
Raptors in 7: 37.8% (+16.58%)
Pacers in 7: 16.2% (+9.13%)
Pacers in 6: 18.0% (+12.71%)
Pacers in 5: 0.0%
Pacers in 4: 0.0%

Overall Odds:
Raptors win series: 65.8% likely (-21.84%)
Pacers win series: 34.2% likely (+21.84%)

Miami Heat (3) vs. Charlotte Hornets (6)
Heat in 4: 0.0% (-20.25%)
Heat in 5: 26.0% (-8.65%)
Heat in 6: 21.2% (+4.99%)
Heat in 7: 26.13% (+9.4%)
Hornets in 7: 14.07% (+6.9%)
Hornets in 6: 12.6% (+7.61%)
Hornets in 5: 0.0%
Hornets in 4: 0.0%

Overall Odds:
Heat win series: 73.33% likely (-14.51%)
Hornets win series: 26.67% likely (+14.51%)


Oklahoma City Thunder (3) vs. Dallas Mavericks (6)
Thunder in 4: 0.0%
Thunder in 5: 86.0% (+31.6%)
Thunder in 6: 9.24% (-16.49%)
Thunder in 7: 4.09% (-11.15%)
Mavericks in 7: 0.67% (-2.02%)
Mavericks in 6: 0.0% (-1.94%)
Mavericks in 5: 0.0%
Mavericks in 4: 0.0%

Overall Odds:
Thunder win series: 99.33% likely (+3.96%)
Mavericks win series: 0.67% likely (-3.96%)

LA Clippers (4) vs. Portland Trailblazers (5)
Clippers in 4: 0.0% (-25%)
Clippers in 5: 34.31% (-3.19%)
Clippers in 6: 24.15% (+8.52%)
Clippers in 7: 24.79% (+10.73%)
Trailblazers in 7: 9.17% (+4.48%)
Trailblazers in 6: 7.58% (+4.45%)
Trailblazers in 5: 0.0%
Trailblazers in 4: 0.0%

Overall Odds:
Clippers win series: 83.25% likely (-8.94%)
Trailblazers win series: 16.75% likely (+8.94%)

 

[shoes22]

Lookin' good in the neighborhood!

Golden State Warriors (1) vs. Houston Rockets (8)
Warriors in 4: 0.0%
Warriors in 5: 88.0% (+25%)
Warriors in 6: 8.64% (-15.16%)
Warriors in 7: 2.96% (-8.11%)
Rockets in 7: 0.40% (-0.83%)
Rockets in 6: 0.0% (-0.9%)
Rockets in 5: 0.0%
Rockets in 4: 0.0%

Overall Odds:
Warriors win series: 99.60% likely (+1.73%)
Rockets win series: 0.40% likely (-1.73%)

Atlanta Hawks (4) vs. Boston Celtics (5)
Hawks in 4: 0.0%
Hawks in 5: 0.0% (-28%)
Hawks in 6: 26.4% (+4.8%)
Hawks in 7: 35.11% (+7.39%)
Celtics in 7: 18.09% (+6.21%)
Celtics in 6: 20.4% (+9.6%)
Celtics in 5: 0.0%
Celtics in 4: 0.0%

Overall Odds:
Hawks win series: 61.51% likely (-15.81%)
Celtics win series: 38.49% likely (+15.81%)

 

[gourimoko]

Lookin' good in the neighborhood!

Golden State Warriors (1) vs. Houston Rockets (8)
Warriors in 4: 0.0%
Warriors in 5: 88.0% (+25%)
Warriors in 6: 8.64% (-15.16%)
Warriors in 7: 2.96% (-8.11%)
Rockets in 7: 0.40% (-0.83%)
Rockets in 6: 0.0% (-0.9%)
Rockets in 5: 0.0%
Rockets in 4: 0.0%

Overall Odds:
Warriors win series: 99.60% likely (+1.73%)
Rockets win series: 0.40% likely (-1.73%)

Atlanta Hawks (4) vs. Boston Celtics (5)
Hawks in 4: 0.0%
Hawks in 5: 0.0% (-28%)
Hawks in 6: 26.4% (+4.8%)
Hawks in 7: 35.11% (+7.39%)
Celtics in 7: 18.09% (+6.21%)
Celtics in 6: 20.4% (+9.6%)
Celtics in 5: 0.0%
Celtics in 4: 0.0%

Overall Odds:
Hawks win series: 61.51% likely (-15.81%)
Celtics win series: 38.49% likely (+15.81%)

@shoes22 , can you run the model for Clippers-GSW sans-Curry, please?

 

[shoes22]

@shoes22 , can you run the model for Clippers-GSW sans-Curry, please?

Alright, here's what I got. The following numbers are based on the following 2 assumptions:
1) that Curry won't return at any point during this series, and
2) that his production is replaced 50% by other players.

With that in mind, here's what it predicts...

Warriors in 4: 7.68%
Warriors in 5: 19.23%
Warriors in 6: 14.85%
Warriors in 7: 20.96%
Clippers in 7: 10.80%
Clippers in 6: 15.53%
Clippers in 5: 7.05%
Clippers in 4: 3.89%

Warriors win series: 62.73% likely
Clippers win series: 37.27% likely

Essentially, the Warriors are expected to win by a little less than a 2:1 ratio.

As i've said before, this is just projecting out based on if the series started today and the 50% replacement production estimate for Curry. Right now it's also not accounting for the extra fatigue on the rest of the roster playing more minutes after losing their best player.

The projection will be exponentially more accurate as we get closer to the series start and (obviously) once games start being played.

 

[shoes22]

Wild wild day in the NBA. The numbers in the Clippers-Blazers below are accounting for Chris Paul not playing the rest of the series.

Miami Heat (3) vs. Charlotte Hornets (6)
Heat in 4: 0.0%
Heat in 5: 0.0% (-26.0%)
Heat in 6: 23.68% (+2.48%)
Heat in 7: 34.33% (+8.2%)
Hornets in 7: 19.31% (+5.24%)
Hornets in 6: 22.68% (+10.08%)
Hornets in 5: 0.0%
Hornets in 4: 0.0%

Overall Odds:
Heat win series: 58.01% likely (-15.32%)
Hornets win series: 41.99% likely (+15.32%)


LA Clippers (4) vs. Portland Trailblazers (5)
Clippers in 4: 0.0%
Clippers in 5: 0.0% (-34.31%)
Clippers in 6: 18.7% (-5.45%)
Clippers in 7: 28.38% (+3.59%)
Trailblazers in 7: 23.22% (+14.05%)
Trailblazers in 6: 29.7% (+22.12%)
Trailblazers in 5: 0.0%
Trailblazers in 4: 0.0%


Overall Odds:
Clippers win series: 47.08% likely (-36.17%)
Trailblazers win series: 52.92% likely (+36.17%)

 

[shoes22]

So, interesting little quirk about today's games. Both the Raptors and Hawks are projected to lose their next game, and yet Raptors in 6 and Hawks in 6 is the current most likely scenario in both series. The reason for this is the margin of victory in both games are so slim (Pacers are favored by 4% and the Celtics by 8% in Game 6, respectively) that due to variance, the road team winning in 6 still ends up the most likely outcome of the series.

Toronto Raptors (2) vs. Indiana Pacers (7)
Raptors in 4: 0.0%
Raptors in 5: 0.0%
Raptors in 6: 48% (+20%)
Raptors in 7: 29.12% (-8.68%)
Pacers in 7: 22.88% (+6.48%)
Pacers in 6: 0.0% (-18.0%)
Pacers in 5: 0.0%
Pacers in 4: 0.0%

Overall Odds:
Raptors win series: 77.12% likely (+11.32%)
Pacers win series: 22.88% likely (-11.32%)

Atlanta Hawks (4) vs. Boston Celtics (5)
Hawks in 4: 0.0%
Hawks in 5: 0.0%
Hawks in 6: 46% (+19.6%)
Hawks in 7: 44.82% (+9.71%)
Celtics in 7: 9.18% (-8.91%)
Celtics in 6: 0.0% (-20.4%)
Celtics in 5: 0.0%
Celtics in 4: 0.0%

Overall Odds:
Hawks win series: 90.82% likely (+29.31%)
Celtics win series: 9.18% likely (-29.31%)

 

[shoes22]

Couple of road team wins should make for some exciting closeout games!

Miami Heat (3) vs. Charlotte Hornets (6)
Heat in 4: 0.0%
Heat in 5: 0.0%
Heat in 6: 0.0% (-23.68%)
Heat in 7: 22.32% (-12.01%)
Hornets in 7: 13.68% (-5.63%)
Hornets in 6: 64% (+41.32%)
Hornets in 5: 0.0%
Hornets in 4: 0.0%

Overall Odds:
Heat win series: 22.32% likely (-35.69%)
Hornets win series: 77.68% likely (+35.69%)


LA Clippers (4) vs. Portland Trailblazers (5)
Clippers in 4: 0.0%
Clippers in 5: 0.0%
Clippers in 6: 0.0% (-18.7%)
Clippers in 7: 14.79% (-13.59%)
Trailblazers in 7: 14.21% (-9.01%)
Trailblazers in 6: 71% (+41.3%)
Trailblazers in 5: 0.0%
Trailblazers in 4: 0.0%


Overall Odds:
Clippers win series: 14.79% likely (-32.29%)
Trailblazers win series: 85.21% likely (+32.29%)

 

[shoes22]

Alright everyone, I present to you our first two known matchups of the second round!

Cleveland Cavaliers (1) vs. Atlanta Hawks (4)
Cavs in 4: 19.43%
Cavs in 5: 30.71%
Cavs in 6: 18.81%
Cavs in 7: 16.61%
Hawks in 7: 5.24%
Hawks in 6: 5.96%
Hawks in 5: 2.22%
Hawks in 4: 1.02%

Also for each second round series, for all non-closeout games I'll be posting odds for each individual game. (I should have done this in the 1st round as well but it slipped my mind.)

Game 1 Odds:
Cavs win 76%/Hawks win 24%

Overall Odds:
Cavs win series: 85.56% likely
Hawks win series: 14.44% likely


San Antonio Spurs (2) vs. Oklahoma City Thunder (3)
Spurs in 4: 10.50%
Spurs in 5: 24.35%
Spurs in 6: 16.32%
Spurs in 7: 21.49%
Thunder in 7: 8.36%
Thunder in 6: 12.10%
Thunder in 5: 4.50%
Thunder in 4: 2.37%

Game 1 Odds:
Spurs win 72%/Thunder win 28%

Overall Odds:
Spurs win series: 72.67% likely
Thunder win series: 27.33% likely

 

[shoes22]

Toronto Raptors (2) vs. Indiana Pacers (7)
Raptors in 4: 0.0%
Raptors in 5: 0.0%
Raptors in 6: 0.0% (-48%)
Raptors in 7: 52% (+22.88%)
Pacers in 7: 48% (+25.12%)
Pacers in 6: 0.0%
Pacers in 5: 0.0%
Pacers in 4: 0.0%

Overall Odds:
Raptors win series: 52% likely (-25.12%)
Pacers win series: 48% likely (+25.12%)

Miami Heat (3) vs. Charlotte Hornets (6)
Heat in 4: 0.0%
Heat in 5: 0.0%
Heat in 6: 0.0%
Heat in 7: 65% (+42.68%)
Hornets in 7: 35% (+21.32%)
Hornets in 6: 0.0% (-64%)
Hornets in 5: 0.0%
Hornets in 4: 0.0%

Overall Odds:
Heat win series: 65% likely (+42.68%)
Hornets win series: 35% likely (-42.68%)


And for the second round series...

Golden State Warriors (1) vs. Portland Trailblazers (5)
Warriors in 4: 14.82%
Warriors in 5: 25.87%
Warriors in 6: 18.97%
Warriors in 7: 18.22%
Trailblazers in 7: 7.81%
Trailblazers in 6: 8.60%
Trailblazers in 5: 3.89%
Trailblazers in 4: 1.82%

Game 1 Odds:
Warriors win 70%/Trailblazers win 30%

Overall Odds:
Warriors win series: 77.88% likely
Trailblazers win series: 22.12% likely

San Antonio Spurs (2) vs. Oklahoma City Thunder (3)
Spurs in 4: 17.28% (+6.78%)
Spurs in 5: 32.4% (+8.05%)
Spurs in 6: 16.98% (+0.66%)
Spurs in 7: 18.57% (-2.92%)
Thunder in 7: 6.19% (-2.19%)
Thunder in 6: 6.90% (-5.2%)
Thunder in 5: 1.89% (-2.81%)
Thunder in 4: 0.0% (-2.37%)

Game 2 Odds:
Spurs win 75%/Thunder win 25%

Overall Odds:
Spurs win series: 85.02% likely (+12.56%)
Thunder win series: 14.98% likely (-12.56%)