OF-2022

[LL3]

Bradley's line is .215/.789 against Naylor's .253/.700. The big difference is power; Bradley has 12 HR's in 163 AB's against Josh's 7 HR's in 233 AB's. If we project Bradley's numbers to 233 AB's to make the at-bat's equal, Bradley has 17 HR's and 40 RBI's versus 7 and 21 for Naylor. Double the production in the same number of at-bats.

The difference in clutch hitting is huge. Naylor is hitting .182 with RISP; Bradley is at .282. With RISP and two out, Naylor is 4-for-25 (.160) while Bradley is 5-for-15 (.333) with four walks. Bradley has a big advantage in two key areas: home runs and batting average with runners in scoring position, which is why he has double the RBI's if you equalize the at-bats.

It looks to me like Naylor is so intense that he really presses with runners in scoring position and chases too many bad pitches. Bradley is more patient. He has one walk every 6 plate appearances with RISP; Naylor has one walk in 12. That additional patience results in better pitches to hit and a batting average 100 points higher with RISP.

It's hard to make an argument for a first baseman who hits below .200 with RISP, rarely homers, and drives in a run every 12 at-bats. Also, Naylor is hitting .193/.512 against lefties; Bradley is at .192/.792. The batting averages are the same but Bradley punishes mistakes by lefties to where his OPS is 280 points higher. Bradley's OPS is actually a little higher against lefites than righties (.792 versus .787).

Based solely on the relatively small sample sizes from this season Bradley is the winner hands down.

I've said this before but unless Naylor learns to elevate the ball so he can take advantage of his strength I don't see him as an every day player in the bigs. He is hitting .287/.805 against RHP's which suggests he could be part of a platoon with somebody like Mercado or Harold Ramirez. But right now he is banging too many ground balls into the shift.

According to Fangraphs, there isn't much difference between Naylor and Bradley in ground ball and fly ball percentages. Naylor actually has a small edge in fly ball percentage, 31.9% to 31.3%. But the amazing difference is where those fly balls go. Only 11.7% of Naylor's fly balls leave the yard compared to 38.7% of Bradley's. It's incredible that when Bradley gets the ball in the air it leaves the yard nearly 40% of the time. Franmil is at 32.4; Josie is at 17.6%.

These are minute sample sizes...truly.

We're going to see this play out...barring a major acquisition, if and when Naylor is healthy, he is going to get a chance to play, as there seem to be enough people in the FO who are intrigued by what they see as his potential...not what he did or did not do in this abbreviated season. Bradley has done enough to merit a longer look, and as @CATS44 noted above, he has been good with glove, too...hardly a certainty, but may b e the best option available in the moment.

 

[CATS44]

At the moment, Bradley does look like the best option, based upon small sample size, but you still can't get around a 35% K rate....and that is not a small sample size. His K rate for four years has been untenable.

Folks talk about productive batters with high K rates, and mention Dunn and the two Davises. None of them Kd 35% of the time in their careers...and all three had to hit a ton of home runs to have any value. In addition to that, Dunn walked at a higher rate than Carlos Santana.

 

[CDAV45]

In Bradleys defense, he looks very good in the field. I dont view him as any kind of defensive liability....he may even be a plus.

For a team that is gonna live on run suppression, an average bat and an above average glove at first is a plus.

The problem is how many bats can we have in one lineup that whiff 33% of the time?

As things stand right now, we have four over 30% in the lineup.

The catchers, Franmil, Zimmer, and Bradley.

Franmil is staying. At least one of the catchers is staying, and will play most of the time. Can the offense afford to have both Zimmer and Bradley in the lineup?

I agree with your thoughts on Bradley's defense. He's moving so much better that I can't help but wonder if he couldn't play a little OF if needed?

Again, run suppression is an absolute for a championship caliber team, but if they're not hellbent on improving the lineup it won't matter.

If a good portion of the other 70% of AB are not productive then whiffing 30% or more will not cut it. Thankfully a bat like Bradley's can be productive will carrying a high SO rate as he and many others throughout the league have demonstrated. You don't have to like it, but it's the reality that we're dealing with.

My hope is still the Zimmer is our 4th OFer next season. He'll get plenty of AB to stay sharp and if he earns more than that then good for him and us.

I see no reason to give Bradley every opportunity this season to prove his worth, but I'd still find a good back-up/platoon for him. Like you said before CATS, I wouldn't put all my 1B eggs in Bradley's basket. You hit the nail on the head with that one.