OF-2022

[KluberSociety]

Naylor is only 24 so you would expect he's still improving but comparing this season to 2019 I'm not seeng any progress.

2019 253 AB's. .249/.315/.403/.719 0.1 WAR
2021 233 AB's. .253/.301/.399/.700 0.2 WAR

Identical for all intents and purposes. Maybe he would have come on strong in the second half when the balls started carrying, but he's a line drive and ground ball hitter with 16 HR's in 583 AB's so I doubt it. To me Naylor looks like a left-handed Harold Ramirez; tremendous strength but hits everything on the ground or on a line, rarely elevates, and is below average defensively. Doesn't hit for power or average and rarely walks.

Amed Rosario is from the same school of hitting but his average is 20-30 points higher because he uses the opposite field and he plays a critical defensive position.

Naylor has the advantage of being able to double as the backup first baseman so we don't need to keep Yu Chang or Owen Miller on the 25 just in case something happens to Bradley. So we could carry five outfielders and platoon at both corner positions. You could have a Zimmer/Harold Ramirez platoon in right and a Naylor/Mercado platoon in left.

Naylor has latent power and has been making a lot of contact; it just hasn't been productive contact.

He's certainly got hitting potential, whether he ever realizes enough of it to be a productive MLB hitter is up in the air. For what it's worth Fangraphs has him at negative WAR in every season, totaling up to -0.8. This is a result of his atrocious OF defense.

I don't see why the guy should ever be thought of as an outfielder. He's terrible at outfield, worse than Harold according to metrics and I believe it because he is so clunky out there. Harold is more of a clown show but he can get to balls.

He's got a career -1.8 UZR/150 at 1B, and -13.4 UZR/150 at OF (Harold in contrast is -5.8); let him just work on the former when he has zero potential to be decent at the latter.

 

[Wham with the Right Hand]

Naylor has latent power and has been making a lot of contact; it just hasn't been productive contact.

He's certainly got hitting potential, whether he ever realizes enough of it to be a productive MLB hitter is up in the air. For what it's worth Fangraphs has him at negative WAR in every season, totaling up to -0.8. This is a result of his atrocious OF defense.

I don't see why the guy should ever be thought of as an outfielder. He's terrible at outfield, worse than Harold according to metrics and I believe it because he is so clunky out there. Harold is more of a clown show but he can get to balls.

He's got a career -1.8 UZR/150 at 1B, and -13.4 UZR/150 at OF (Harold in contrast is -5.8); let him just work on the former when he has zero potential to be decent at the latter.

In addition to Naylor we have Zimmer, Johnson, and Jones as left-handed hitting corner outfielders not to mention Mercado, Harold Ramirez, and potentially Oscar Gonzalez from the right side. That's a lot of competition for a .260/.700 hitter with little pop and bad defense.

I agree he has a better chance by competing with Bradley for the first base job, but even there I think he would lose. But he's only 24. They could put him in Columbus next year and give Bradley an extended shot at locking down the first base job. If he fails, Naylor is Plan B.

 

[KluberSociety]

In addition to Naylor we have Zimmer, Johnson, and Jones as left-handed hitting corner outfielders not to mention Mercado, Harold Ramirez, and potentially Oscar Gonzalez from the right side. That's a lot of competition for a .260/.700 hitter with little pop and bad defense.

I agree he has a better chance by competing with Bradley for the first base job, but even there I think he would lose. But he's only 24. They could put him in Columbus next year and give Bradley an extended shot at locking down the first base job. If he fails, Naylor is Plan B.

That's essentially how I see it too, Jones could be a wild card for that slot as well.

One thing I find interesting is (low sample warning), Harold actually has decent metrics in CF. When I think of a "misplayed Harold fly ball" I think of him interacting poorly with the wall, which is less of an issue in CF. Optimally if he is going to play (and we didn't already have a CF) I think you might be able to make the case for Harold playing CF as opposed to a corner outfielder, because playing a below average CF is more valuable than playing a below average corner position. "Put the weak defenders at the corner positions" is a lazy way out of thinking about optimal positioning.

 

[Criznit]

In addition to Naylor we have Zimmer, Johnson, and Jones as left-handed hitting corner outfielders not to mention Mercado, Harold Ramirez, and potentially Oscar Gonzalez from the right side. That's a lot of competition for a .260/.700 hitter with little pop and bad defense.

I agree he has a better chance by competing with Bradley for the first base job, but even there I think he would lose. But he's only 24. They could put him in Columbus next year and give Bradley an extended shot at locking down the first base job. If he fails, Naylor is Plan B.

Initially I thought there was zero chance Naylor would play AAA in 2021. Now I am thinking it's about 20%, especially if he is suiting up as a 1st baseman. Though I have never seen him play in the OF, Nolan Jones in RF and Naylor in LF doesn't sound good from a defensive standpoint.

Something is going to give before 2022 - good luck on figuring that out before they do it.

 

[Criznit]

That's essentially how I see it too, Jones could be a wild card for that slot as well.

One thing I find interesting is (low sample warning), Harold actually has decent metrics in CF. When I think of a "misplayed Harold fly ball" I think of him interacting poorly with the wall, which is less of an issue in CF. Optimally if he is going to play (and we didn't already have a CF) I think you might be able to make the case for Harold playing CF as opposed to a corner outfielder, because playing a below average CF is more valuable than playing a below average corner position. "Put the weak defenders at the corner positions" is a lazy way out of thinking about optimal positioning.

Harold has one of the worst arms I have seen in the OF ever. I do not see how he fits on this team going forward, might even get let go before this seasons end.

 

[Benway]

Naylor is at least a passable Major League hitter and has been since the age of 22. Bradley, as yet, is not.

 

[KluberSociety]

Naylor is at least a passable Major League hitter and has been since the age of 22. Bradley, as yet, is not.

Naylor has a career wRC+ of 86, Bradley 97. They do it different ways but Naylor's lack of game power really has bitten him.

 

[Benway]

Naylor has a career wRC+ of 86, Bradley 97. They do it different ways but Naylor's lack of game power really has bitten him.

In terms of projectability, though, Naylor's age 22 campaign indicates a much higher ceiling. I feel that I have to give him a pass on the last two years of zero development.
I've been waiting for Bradley since 2015, but that ship never pulled into harbor. I guess I'm calling him a Mike Ford.

 

[CATS44]

If I'm gonna continue to wait for a player to finally put it together and produce, I'm gonna tend towards the one that is..

1) Youngest
2) Has all his options left
3) Is still pre arby.

 

[CDAV45]

Naylor is at least a passable Major League hitter and has been since the age of 22. Bradley, as yet, is not.

And you base this assessment off of what? Thing about Naylor is that even if he is what you claim, he brings little value to any position he plays. He's not good defensively and his power has yet to show itself with any consistency. I so badly want to be wrong about this.....more than I could ever express. I see a slower, LH version of HRam with Josh. He certainly cannot impact a baseball the way Bradley can. I like OPS+ and Naylor's is 89 in 233 AB and Bradley's is 108 in 159 AB. Bradley is a more productive hitter at this point.

 

[Benway]

And you base this assessment off of what? Thing about Naylor is that even if he is what you claim, he brings little value to any position he plays. He's not good defensively and his power has yet to show itself with any consistency. I so badly want to be wrong about this.....more than I could ever express. I see a slower, LH version of HRam with Josh. He certainly cannot impact a baseball the way Bradley can. I like OPS+ and Naylor's is 89 in 233 AB and Bradley's is 108 in 159 AB. Bradley is a more productive hitter at this point.

I guess I just favor players who hold their own at 22, which Naylor did. He hasn't developed in the two succeeding seasons, which is certainly not a good sign, but a lot of things have held him back. I think he still has upside.
Bradley has one very good tool, but it looks as though he's going to need another way to contribute that he does not appear to have.
But we'll find out soon enough! I've been eagerly awaiting Bobby Bradley's arrival for 6 years, and they will certainly make sure what he is or isn't by next season.
I'm just a lot less hopeful than I once was.

Remember Angelo LoGrande?

 

[KluberSociety]

I guess I just favor players who hold their own at 22, which Naylor did. He hasn't developed in the two succeeding seasons, which is certainly not a good sign, but a lot of things have held him back. I think he still has upside.
Bradley has one very good tool, but it looks as though he's going to need another way to contribute that he does not appear to have.
But we'll find out soon enough! I've been eagerly awaiting Bobby Bradley's arrival for 6 years, and they will certainly make sure what he is or isn't by next season.
I'm just a lot less hopeful than I once was.

Remember Angelo LoGrande?

Naylor hasn't made a whole lot of progress either from his age 22 season and is now 24. Bradley is only 1 year older than Naylor. I don't really see them as much different. They're poor defensive players who have average offensive tools at best when it averages out, at least now. The one thing I'd worry about with Bradley is pitchers knowing more how to pitch to him now, knowing his weakness to offspeed pitches. He has looked very off balance, pulling off of righty changeups for instance. He looks a little impatient now too which isn't helping on that front.

 

[Benway]

Naylor hasn't made a whole lot of progress either from his age 22 season and is now 24. Bradley is only 1 year older than Naylor. I don't really see them as much different. They're poor defensive players who have average offensive tools at best when it averages out, at least now. The one thing I'd worry about with Bradley is pitchers knowing more how to pitch to him now, knowing his weakness to offspeed pitches. He has looked very off balance, pulling off of righty changeups for instance. He looks a little impatient now too which isn't helping on that front.

All I know is that I'd expect both of these fellows to be drafted very, very late in a Rotisserie draft. I could even see Bradley going for about $4 and Naylor taken in the reserve rounds. (Without the benefit of off season and spring training updates.)

Bottom line is: I do not expect much from either. If I was pressed, I'd say Bradley busts and Naylor fades away. But you never know!!

 

[CATS44]

In Bradleys defense, he looks very good in the field. I dont view him as any kind of defensive liability....he may even be a plus.

For a team that is gonna live on run suppression, an average bat and an above average glove at first is a plus.

The problem is how many bats can we have in one lineup that whiff 33% of the time?

As things stand right now, we have four over 30% in the lineup.

The catchers, Franmil, Zimmer, and Bradley.

Franmil is staying. At least one of the catchers is staying, and will play most of the time. Can the offense afford to have both Zimmer and Bradley in the lineup?

 

[Wham with the Right Hand]

Bradley's line is .215/.789 against Naylor's .253/.700. The big difference is power; Bradley has 12 HR's in 163 AB's against Josh's 7 HR's in 233 AB's. If we project Bradley's numbers to 233 AB's to make the at-bat's equal, Bradley has 17 HR's and 40 RBI's versus 7 and 21 for Naylor. Double the production in the same number of at-bats.

The difference in clutch hitting is huge. Naylor is hitting .182 with RISP; Bradley is at .282. With RISP and two out, Naylor is 4-for-25 (.160) while Bradley is 5-for-15 (.333) with four walks. Bradley has a big advantage in two key areas: home runs and batting average with runners in scoring position, which is why he has double the RBI's if you equalize the at-bats.

It looks to me like Naylor is so intense that he really presses with runners in scoring position and chases too many bad pitches. Bradley is more patient. He has one walk every 6 plate appearances with RISP; Naylor has one walk in 12. That additional patience results in better pitches to hit and a batting average 100 points higher with RISP.

It's hard to make an argument for a first baseman who hits below .200 with RISP, rarely homers, and drives in a run every 12 at-bats. Also, Naylor is hitting .193/.512 against lefties; Bradley is at .192/.792. The batting averages are the same but Bradley punishes mistakes by lefties to where his OPS is 280 points higher. Bradley's OPS is actually a little higher against lefites than righties (.792 versus .787).

Based solely on the relatively small sample sizes from this season Bradley is the winner hands down.

I've said this before but unless Naylor learns to elevate the ball so he can take advantage of his strength I don't see him as an every day player in the bigs. He is hitting .287/.805 against RHP's which suggests he could be part of a platoon with somebody like Mercado or Harold Ramirez. But right now he is banging too many ground balls into the shift.

According to Fangraphs, there isn't much difference between Naylor and Bradley in ground ball and fly ball percentages. Naylor actually has a small edge in fly ball percentage, 31.9% to 31.3%. But the amazing difference is where those fly balls go. Only 11.7% of Naylor's fly balls leave the yard compared to 38.7% of Bradley's. It's incredible that when Bradley gets the ball in the air it leaves the yard nearly 40% of the time. Franmil is at 32.4; Josie is at 17.6%.