Gson
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Changing RCF's index page, please click on "Forums" to access the forums.
Poll: Will Shane Bieber be traded before Opening Day 2024?
- Thread starter Criznit
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MadThinker88
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Sorry… typo
Meant 2024
The question that must be answered is how much a year of Bieber for $12 mil is worth plus the value of the draft pick compensation that comes with him if he is traded now.
Biebs put up 2.4 fWAR on 124 IP with a 3.80 ERA and a matching 3.87 FIP last year. He is 29.
So far, the FA/extension market for SPs looks like this:
Wacha, 32 yrs old....2.6 fWAR on 134.1 IP...3.22 ERA...3.89....$16 mil per year.
Glasnow, 30 yrs old...3.6 fWAR on 120 IP...3.53 ERA....2.91 FIP...$27 mil per year.
Flaherty, 28 yrs old....1.8 fWAR on 144 IP...4.99 ERA...4.36 FIP....$14 mil per year.
Mahle, 29 yrs old....had TJS in May. His numbers over the last two years...2.5 fWAR on 146.1 IP....4.18 ERA...3.97 FIP....$11 mil per year.
Lugo, 34 yrs old...2.8 fWAR on 146.1 IP...3.57 ERA...3.83 FIP....$15 mil per year.
Rodriguez, 41 yrs old...3.0 fWAR on 152.2 IP...3.30 ERA...3.66 FIP...$20 mil per year.
Martinez, 33 yrs old...1.4 fWAR on 110.1 IP...3.43 ERA...3.92 FIP. $13 mil per year.
Gray, 34 yrs old...5.3 fWAR on 184 IPF...2.79 ERA...2.84 FIP...$28 mil per year.
A few others...
Lynn...$11 mil per year.
Gibson...$12 mil
Maeda...$12 mil
Clearly, Biebs is somewhere between a bargain and a steal at $12 mil. The draft pick compensation has a fair amount of value.
A contender can look at him as a low risk one year acquisition with a high draft pick attached, or as a possible extension. long term pick up with a somewhat depressed contract extension.
If the Guardians trade Biebs before ST, they are looking at a very thin rotation. If the FO is truly looking to contend, they would have to bring in something more than a filler SP. It would be nearly impossible to find a better bargain than Biebs + compensation for $12 mil.
Biebs put up 2.4 fWAR on 124 IP with a 3.80 ERA and a matching 3.87 FIP last year. He is 29.
So far, the FA/extension market for SPs looks like this:
Wacha, 32 yrs old....2.6 fWAR on 134.1 IP...3.22 ERA...3.89....$16 mil per year.
Glasnow, 30 yrs old...3.6 fWAR on 120 IP...3.53 ERA....2.91 FIP...$27 mil per year.
Flaherty, 28 yrs old....1.8 fWAR on 144 IP...4.99 ERA...4.36 FIP....$14 mil per year.
Mahle, 29 yrs old....had TJS in May. His numbers over the last two years...2.5 fWAR on 146.1 IP....4.18 ERA...3.97 FIP....$11 mil per year.
Lugo, 34 yrs old...2.8 fWAR on 146.1 IP...3.57 ERA...3.83 FIP....$15 mil per year.
Rodriguez, 41 yrs old...3.0 fWAR on 152.2 IP...3.30 ERA...3.66 FIP...$20 mil per year.
Martinez, 33 yrs old...1.4 fWAR on 110.1 IP...3.43 ERA...3.92 FIP. $13 mil per year.
Gray, 34 yrs old...5.3 fWAR on 184 IPF...2.79 ERA...2.84 FIP...$28 mil per year.
A few others...
Lynn...$11 mil per year.
Gibson...$12 mil
Maeda...$12 mil
Clearly, Biebs is somewhere between a bargain and a steal at $12 mil. The draft pick compensation has a fair amount of value.
A contender can look at him as a low risk one year acquisition with a high draft pick attached, or as a possible extension. long term pick up with a somewhat depressed contract extension.
If the Guardians trade Biebs before ST, they are looking at a very thin rotation. If the FO is truly looking to contend, they would have to bring in something more than a filler SP. It would be nearly impossible to find a better bargain than Biebs + compensation for $12 mil.
CDAV45
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Good post CATS. Thanks for putting up the numbers. It's good to see how Bieber's value relatively compares to others.
I agree wholeheartedly that if they deal Bieber there will have to be a SP addition or 2. Clearly they won't go with a high valued, experienced SP so they could aim to acquire a prospect or young SP that looks poised to do well(breakout). Do you gamble on Bieber's health and losing any value he might have or do you count on a young, talented but inexperienced kid? I don't know the answer to that question honestly.
This is why I wanted to deal Bieber last off season when it was evident that he could not be extended. In those scenarios it is best for this organization(and others like it) to move on from a player like that unless you are a sure fire WS contender. We weren't that and we're still not that, but I think we're getting closer.
Martyinnewyork
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Welcome back, CATS!
Just to clarify on the compensation pick, the value if we trade him to a profit-sharing team is the equivalent of a 1st round pick. If we are trading him to a tax paying team, the earliest is a 2nd round pick. So, 3 comp picks last year were all 2nd rounders.
It kind of shows that most of the bottom teams usually trade these big stars early to maximize the benefit of 1-1/2+ years as NYY, NYM, LAA don't care about that late 2nd rounder too much when lining up trades now vs trade deadline.
Alabuckeye
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So…based on the last couple posts….Biebs has more intrinsic value to us to keep, as he’s a bargain. But only if we upgrade our offense as we can not make a run in the playoffs with our offense as it was in 23 or even 22.
but how do we improve our offense if he’s not the center piece of a trade to do that?
otoh, it makes sense to upgrade our offense because we have to in order to keep progressing….regardless of whether we keep him or not.
but how do we improve our offense if he’s not the center piece of a trade to do that?
otoh, it makes sense to upgrade our offense because we have to in order to keep progressing….regardless of whether we keep him or not.
PocketMonger
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This years team is not a legit WS contender so Shane needs to get dealt for 2025 and beyond. A really nice core is coming together around Jose/Naylor and the young pitchers but they're not quite there yet.
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There are other ways to acquire MLB talent other than trading Bieber. Trade prospects for legit MLB production...prospects that we aren't gonna use anyway...before they lose their value like so many before them.
While we might have a nice offensive core coming together, which IMO is questionable, we are unlikely to be able to keep it together. If we can't afford to pay Bieber $12 mil or extend him, what makes anybody think we can afford to pay JNaylor $12 mil next year or extend him?
While we might have a nice offensive core coming together, which IMO is questionable, we are unlikely to be able to keep it together. If we can't afford to pay Bieber $12 mil or extend him, what makes anybody think we can afford to pay JNaylor $12 mil next year or extend him?
Benway
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Well, it's not about paying Bieber $12MM, it's about not paying him $300MM/10.
I think that we'd LOVE to sign him for $80MM/5, but that's just not on the table.
CDAV45
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Any of us can say "they can do this instead of that", but that might not lineup with reality. If there is a market for MIFers it must be a weak one because Cleveland still has all of theirs. Clearly there is a market for SP because there is always a market for SP. The question surrounding Bieber is what are they getting? Is it a bonafide ace, a MOR starter or a season wasted to the IL?
mopete12
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Very good question. I figured that he and CATS were on a nice remote vacation together and would come back at the same time.
Gson
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Gilligan and the Skipper = Cats & Q?
This is a recurring sentiment, and it has become an annual mantra.
Every year this franchise is waiting for next year. It hasn't made a significant win now move since trading for Brad Hand, and before that signing Encarnacion.
This in spite of having significant assets in the farm system to do so. We made several significant trades in order to add significant assets to our farm systems. Almost all those assets have turned to dust.
At the beginning of 2021, we had 17 MIFs 25 yrs old or younger who were either in Cleveland or listed as legit prospects. Five of them are gone with no return of any mention, and we still don't have a legit shortstop.
We've also had a boatload of RF prospects, mostly LHed, and the only thing we have to show for it is Brennan.
We go into this season with five legit regulars.
Jose
Kwan
Gimenez
J Naylor
Bo...whose still unproven, but I'm counting him.
We have no clue what we have at the other three, outside of possible platoons of guys who are little more than a wing and a prayer.
Our SS ranked 27th last year.
Our RF ranked 29th.
Our CF and DH ranked last.
We've made no significant move to fix any of them.
We ranked 29th in wRC+ vs lefties.
We've made NO move, significant or otherwise, to improve that.
The FO just hopes that some kid will come along and solve the problem. Of course, we have so many kids trying out for all these positions that either...
1) Nobody gets the time to get a legit shot.
2) One kid gets a legit shot, while several others are lost due to roster needs.
Under the present SOP, the Guardians will never attain a win now situation. By the time a 26 man roster of productive youngsters are in place, the FO will be looking to trade away the most experienced.