Potential Playoff Roster

[CBBI]

Tito loves Tomlin. Tito trusts Tomlin.

I would start Clevinger over Tomlin too but Tito won't.... not a chance.

And if you disagree, then you haven't been following the Indians all that closely since Tito arrived. Tomlin is by far Tito's favorite and most trusted player....

We'll see.

There's been a huge amount of romanticizing Tomlin based on last year's postseason when he was literally the only option Francona had.

Francona didn't go with Tomlin last year because of some crazy trust factor. Carrasco was hurt, Salazar was hurt, Clevinger wasn't having a good season and Bauer ended up slicing his finger up.

If everyone's healthy, Tomlin should be the 6th option to start a playoff game IMO.

 

[Out of the Rafters at the Q]

C: Gomes/Perez
1B/DH: Santana/EE
2B: Kipnis
SS: Lindor
3B: Ramirez
Bench IF: Urshela
LF: Brantley
CF: Zimmer, Jackson
RF: Chiz, Bruce, Guyer

If healthy, I think all of these guys have earned a spot. Guyer and Urshela are the closest to not making it, but both will for the matchups they provide (Versus lefties or defensively).

The biggest question out of those players is will Kipnis and Brantley both be back, 100% healthy, and ready to go for the ALDS?

That's 14 guys, leaving you 11 pitching spots. 4 listed starters, 7 bullpen arms.

Kluber/Carrasco/Bauer are all starting locks. It's between Salazar and Clevinger (not Tomlin) to earn that fourth starting spot.

Allen, Miller, Shaw, Smith, Olson are all lead pipe locks. That leaves two spots between

Salazar/Clevinger
Tomlin
McAllister
Otero
Goody

I really think Goody gets left off. But, deciding between those last four will be difficult. Guess right now? Salazar gets shelved for the year at some point, and McAllister gets left off as well.

 

[EdMonix11]

We'll see.

There's been a huge amount of romanticizing Tomlin based on last year's postseason when he was literally the only option Francona had.

Francona didn't go with Tomlin last year because of some crazy trust factor. Carrasco was hurt, Salazar was hurt, Clevinger wasn't having a good season and Bauer ended up slicing his finger up.

If everyone's healthy, Tomlin should be the 6th option to start a playoff game IMO.

I'm not sure what last years playoffs have to do with anything. Nor do I have any idea what Carrasco and Bauer have to do with Tomlin potentially starting a playoff game....their place in the rotation is solidified. Those reasons never factored in what I said about Tito trusting Tomlin. Tito has literally said Tomlin is his favorite player and his biggest competitor WAY before last year's playoff performance.

Tomlin will start a playoff game before Clevinger and Salazar. That much I know-- Salazar has been a trainwreck on and off the field and Tito has shown zero trust in Clevinger (Tito is protecting him).

 

[Out of the Rafters at the Q]

I'm not sure what last years playoffs have to do with anything. Nor do I have any idea what Carrasco and Bauer have to do with Tomlin potentially starting a playoff game....their place in the rotation is solidified. Those reasons never factored in what I said about Tito trusting Tomlin. Tito has literally said Tomlin is his favorite player and his biggest competitor WAY before last year's playoff performance.

Tomlin will start a playoff game before Clevinger and Salazar. That much I know-- Salazar has been a trainwreck on and off the field and Tito has shown zero trust in Clevinger (Tito is protecting him).

Except you don't.

 

[CBBI]

I'll confidently go on record saying Tomlin over Clevinger or a healthy and confident Salazar would be a mistake.

He really should be the third of three options. Second option if Salazar can't get sorted out.

 

[sportscoach]

Except you don't.

He is going by Francona's own words at the end of the day. Tomlin will pitch before Clevinger in the playoff this season without a doubt. Tomlin is the 4th SP, and Clev is the 5th guy. We may see Salazar once again out of the pen if he makes the roster.

Now next season I think Tomlin will end up in the pen while Clevinger is in the starting rotation, but thats in 18, but not this season.

 

[3 Ball...GOT IT]

Tomlin over Clevinger is absolutely bananas and won't happen unless things drastically change. At best I can see Tomlin taking a bullpen spot over Salazar, and leaving Salazar off of the roster.

Here's how I see it shaking out:

C: Gomes/Perez
1B: Santana
2B: Kipnis
SS: Lindor
3B: Ramirez/Urshela
LF: Brantley
CF: Chisenhall/Jackson
RF: Bruce/Guyer
DH: Encarnacion/Diaz

SP: Kluber/Carrasco/Bauer/Clevinger
Bullpen:
Salazar, Allen, Miller, Smith, Shaw, Olson, Otero


I don't see there really being any reason Diaz doesn't make the roster. He's hitting .350 since getting called back up with a .510 OBP. You can't leave him off the roster.

In a perfect world, I'd have Diaz start at third, Jose at second, and then sub in Urshela for defensive purposes. I think this is possible against lefties, but platooning him with Kipnis against righties. Not sure that happens though, as I expect them to use Diaz as a late game pinch-hitter probably.

The only other question mark to me is the last bullpen spot between Otero, Goody, and McAllister. But Otero offers the ground-ball ability to escape jams that the other two don't provide. Their abilities are redundant with the other relievers.


It's also worth pointing out that this is similar to how they set up the roster last year, as far as number of bullpen arms and hitting bench spots.

 

[EdMonix11]

Except you don't.

Salazar has officially been moved to the bullpen and Tomlin will for sure start over Clevinger.

What on earth makes you think Tito has faith in Clevinger?

I'd myself pick Clevinger over Tomlin but the point of this exercise is to predict what Tito will do and that means Tomlin over Clevinger all day long.

 

[sportscoach]

Tomlin over Clevinger is absolutely bananas and won't happen unless things drastically change. At best I can see Tomlin taking a bullpen spot over Salazar, and leaving Salazar off of the roster.

Here's how I see it shaking out:

C: Gomes/Perez
1B: Santana
2B: Kipnis
SS: Lindor
3B: Ramirez/Urshela
LF: Brantley
CF: Chisenhall/Jackson
RF: Bruce/Guyer
DH: Encarnacion/Diaz

SP: Kluber/Carrasco/Bauer/Clevinger
Bullpen:
Salazar, Allen, Miller, Smith, Shaw, Olson, Otero


I don't see there really being any reason Diaz doesn't make the roster. He's hitting .350 since getting called back up with a .510 OBP. You can't leave him off the roster.

In a perfect world, I'd have Diaz start at third, Jose at second, and then sub in Urshela for defensive purposes. I think this is possible against lefties, but platooning him with Kipnis against righties. Not sure that happens though, as I expect them to use Diaz as a late game pinch-hitter probably.

The only other question mark to me is the last bullpen spot between Otero, Goody, and McAllister. But Otero offers the ground-ball ability to escape jams that the other two don't provide. Their abilities are redundant with the other relievers.


It's also worth pointing out that this is similar to how they set up the roster last year, as far as number of bullpen arms and hitting bench spots.

If Kipnis is healthy Diaz will not be on the team cause of the fact Francona will like Urshela on the bench since he is a better defensive guy. Francona will have a healthy Tomlin 100% of the time over Clev whether we like it or not. I am not saying that Clev may have better numbers, but Francona will choose the veteran over the younger guy every time if he can. McAllister, Otero will be on the roster before Goody these playoffs as well. I am not saying guys like Diaz, Clev and Goody don't deserve to be there, but Francona will want the veterans first for the playoffs.

ps. For the most part by the numbers i agree with you, but I have to factor in the coach and who he prefers.

 

[3 Ball...GOT IT]

If Kipnis is healthy Diaz will not be on the team cause of the fact Francona will like Urshela on the bench since he is a better defensive guy. Francona will have a healthy Tomlin 100% of the time over Clev whether we like it or not. I am not saying that Clev may have better numbers, but Francona will choose the veteran over the younger guy every time if he can. McAllister, Otero will be on the roster before Goody these playoffs as well. I am not saying guys like Diaz, Clev and Goody don't deserve to be there, but Francona will want the veterans first for the playoffs.

ps. For the most part by the numbers i agree with you, but I have to factor in the coach and who he prefers.

Diaz, Kipnis, and Urshela would all make the playoff roster if it started today and everyone was healthy. There's no need for either Goody or McAllister. Especially if you have one of Tomlin, Clevinger, or Salazar available in the bullpen. There's no need to have a righty with a high strikeout rate as your 7th reliever when you've got Shaw in that same role. Diaz's offensive abilities and Urshela's defensive abilities outweigh what either Goody or McAllister would provide on a game by game basis, and it's not close.

As far as Tomlin vs Clevinger in the eyes of Francona/coaching staff, I'll just agree to disagree with you on that, though there is still a good chunk of the regular season left where things can change.

 

[sportscoach]

Diaz, Kipnis, and Urshela would all make the playoff roster if it started today and everyone was healthy. There's no need for either Goody or McAllister. Especially if you have one of Tomlin, Clevinger, or Salazar available in the bullpen. There's no need to have a righty with a high strikeout rate as your 7th reliever when you've got Shaw in that same role. Diaz's offensive abilities and Urshela's defensive abilities outweigh what either Goody or McAllister would provide on a game by game basis, and it's not close.

As far as Tomlin vs Clevinger in the eyes of Francona/coaching staff, I'll just agree to disagree with you on that, though there is still a good chunk of the regular season left where things can change.

We aren't going below 11 pitchers so Kluber, Carrasco, Bauer, Miller, Allen, Shaw are automatic locks so that leaves 5 guys.

Smith, Otero, McAllister are all veterans that Francona will probably want on the roster. Numbers wise Smith has been the worst of the three bullpen arms in ERA, but FIP and other stats are way in his favor. Tomlin is likely to be chosen over Clev because Francona trusts him more. The numbers between Tomlin and Clevinger aren't as far apart as they look if you take advanced metrics which means if stats are fairly close to one another then it will go towards Tomlin. Last spot will be between Olson, Goody and Salazar, with Olson being perfect so far and a lefty, it is likely he gets the spot. McAllister, Otero and Goody have all about the same stats, so being a veteran is Francona's choice. It is not like there is a wrong choice since the numbers say either way should be equal on paper. Salazar I feel will be left off if he isn't healthy. It is hard to put him on the roster over a McAllister/Otero since they are trustworthy guys in the pen.

So in the first round going by the numbers plus Francona's preferences the pitching staff will be (Likely won't use a 4th starter in round one):

Starters:
Kluber, Carrasco, Bauer
LRP:
Tomlin, McAllister, Otero
MRP/CP
Olson, Shaw, Miller, Allen. Smith

Position players

C: Gomes/Perez
1B/DH: Santana/EE
2B: Kipnis
SS: Lindor
3B: Ramirez
RF: Bruce
CF: Chisenhall
LF: Brantley

That is my lineup position wise against a RH pitcher if everyone is healthy. It will change of course against a lefty and I know Zimmer isn't starting in CF, but if Brantley and Chis are 100% for the playoffs you kind of cannot take out either of their bats out of the lineup, while Bruce is a deep threat. Leaves four on the bench

Bench:
Zimmer, Guyer, Jackson, Urshela

I feel Francona will go with defense over hitting when it comes to the first round. If Kipnis isn't healthy then we will see a Diaz while Ramirez starts at 2B. If Brantley is still not back we will see Almonte/Gonzalez as a bench guy, but I feel Francona wants Urshela on the roster. I am not disagreeing with the fact a guy like Diaz will make more impact possibly, but Francona doesn't like having a short pen.

I wouldn't even be afraid to have Brantley and Kipnis come off the bench in the first round if they don't get back until close to the season ends, but I doubt that will happen.

 

[Kevalier]

Tomlin over Clevinger is absolutely bananas and won't happen unless things drastically change. At best I can see Tomlin taking a bullpen spot over Salazar, and leaving Salazar off of the roster.

Here's how I see it shaking out:

C: Gomes/Perez
1B: Santana
2B: Kipnis
SS: Lindor
3B: Ramirez/Urshela
LF: Brantley
CF: Chisenhall/Jackson
RF: Bruce/Guyer
DH: Encarnacion/Diaz

SP: Kluber/Carrasco/Bauer/Clevinger
Bullpen:
Salazar, Allen, Miller, Smith, Shaw, Olson, Otero


I don't see there really being any reason Diaz doesn't make the roster. He's hitting .350 since getting called back up with a .510 OBP. You can't leave him off the roster.

In a perfect world, I'd have Diaz start at third, Jose at second, and then sub in Urshela for defensive purposes. I think this is possible against lefties, but platooning him with Kipnis against righties. Not sure that happens though, as I expect them to use Diaz as a late game pinch-hitter probably.

The only other question mark to me is the last bullpen spot between Otero, Goody, and McAllister. But Otero offers the ground-ball ability to escape jams that the other two don't provide. Their abilities are redundant with the other relievers.


It's also worth pointing out that this is similar to how they set up the roster last year, as far as number of bullpen arms and hitting bench spots.

No way Guyer makes the playoff roster over Zimmer. Zim's defense and baserunning are far too valuable not to have on the roster.

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[sportscoach]

No way Guyer makes the playoff roster over Zimmer. Zim's defense and baserunning are far too valuable not to have on the roster.

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Also Zimmer doesn't need to start to make an impact. Let's say like the game is tied later and EE/Santana just gets a hit. Zimmer can be a weapon on the bases for a slower guy. Also if we are ahead, we get Zimmer in CF 6th/7th inning for a stronger defense. Chisenhall has the better bat, but in no way can we not have a weapon like Zimmer on the bench. If we do not keep 6 OFs it will be Guyer off the roster. We may not have Guyer on the roster as well if the opposing team doesn't have lefty starters as well to keep another guy who can play in the INF like Gonzalez.

 

[MGMT]

It hasn't actually been said by Tito that Salazar's move to the pen is permanent -- has it? It could be more of a stint to see if he can get command back; if he does well out of the pen, perhaps he sees a start or two. Depending on how those goes, perhaps he gets in the playoff rotation.

Just seems like there are a few pieces of information to gather before that's definitively determined.

 

[Cassity14]

We aren't going below 11 pitchers so Kluber, Carrasco, Bauer, Miller, Allen, Shaw are automatic locks so that leaves 5 guys.

Smith, Otero, McAllister are all veterans that Francona will probably want on the roster. Numbers wise Smith has been the worst of the three bullpen arms in ERA, but FIP and other stats are way in his favor. Tomlin is likely to be chosen over Clev because Francona trusts him more. The numbers between Tomlin and Clevinger aren't as far apart as they look if you take advanced metrics which means if stats are fairly close to one another then it will go towards Tomlin. Last spot will be between Olson, Goody and Salazar, with Olson being perfect so far and a lefty, it is likely he gets the spot. McAllister, Otero and Goody have all about the same stats, so being a veteran is Francona's choice. It is not like there is a wrong choice since the numbers say either way should be equal on paper. Salazar I feel will be left off if he isn't healthy. It is hard to put him on the roster over a McAllister/Otero since they are trustworthy guys in the pen.

So in the first round going by the numbers plus Francona's preferences the pitching staff will be (Likely won't use a 4th starter in round one):

Starters:
Kluber, Carrasco, Bauer
LRP:
Tomlin, McAllister, Otero
MRP/CP
Olson, Shaw, Miller, Allen. Smith

Position players

C: Gomes/Perez
1B/DH: Santana/EE
2B: Kipnis
SS: Lindor
3B: Ramirez
RF: Bruce
CF: Chisenhall
LF: Brantley

That is my lineup position wise against a RH pitcher if everyone is healthy. It will change of course against a lefty and I know Zimmer isn't starting in CF, but if Brantley and Chis are 100% for the playoffs you kind of cannot take out either of their bats out of the lineup, while Bruce is a deep threat. Leaves four on the bench

Bench:
Zimmer, Guyer, Jackson, Urshela

I feel Francona will go with defense over hitting when it comes to the first round. If Kipnis isn't healthy then we will see a Diaz while Ramirez starts at 2B. If Brantley is still not back we will see Almonte/Gonzalez as a bench guy, but I feel Francona wants Urshela on the roster. I am not disagreeing with the fact a guy like Diaz will make more impact possibly, but Francona doesn't like having a short pen.

I wouldn't even be afraid to have Brantley and Kipnis come off the bench in the first round if they don't get back until close to the season ends, but I doubt that will happen.

Bruce has been raking since joining the club, but you have to think that will average out over time. I believe he was acquired to be the 4th outfielder and provide depth to finish the regular season then platoon and pinch hit in the postseason. If everyone is healthy, I think you'll see Zimmer, Brantley, and Chis in the outfield. Against a lefty, maybe Bruce plays in right in place of Chis.