I think we should make a list of teams that took on a lot of salary this year in hopes of getting better, but might be looking to clear it if things don't go their way. So, the likeliest possible trade partners for us to use our TPE on. This is admittedly hard, because with the cap jumping again next season, a lot of teams currently over the cap will still find themselves well under it next season by just letting the contracts they have naturally expire, without having to move guys.
THese are in NO particular order, other than being in the order I looked them up.
1. Washington- Estimated to be around 95 million in cap next year with four big, long term deals on the books + Andrew Nicholson's moderate long term deal on the books. Likeliest player they'd look to move if things aren't working? Mahimi or Gortat. It doesn't make a lot of sense to be paying two centers 12 and 15 million dollars a year if you're struggling to get the 8th seed in the East. Neither of those guys fits into the Cavs TPE however. Players the Cavs could fit into their TPE and may want? Markieff MOrris and Andrew Nicholson are possibilities. They both fill kind of the same role, and if the Wizards can't find a partner to take Mahimi or Gortat, moving one of these two may make some sense. Odds of making a deal? Moderate.
2. Los Angeles Clippers- I only put them here because they are projected to be extremely cap strapped next season if they choose to re-sign Blake and Paul. If they don't, then it's likely one of those two guys will be traded, particularly if it looks like they can't compete with Golden State. Likeliest player they'd look to move if things aren't working? Jamal Crawford or Austin Rivers. Two gunners getting paid a lot of money. I'm not sure Crawford is even movable unless he explodes. Neither one, however, fits into our TPE. Players the Cavs could fit into the their TPE and may want? JJ Reddick and that's it. He's now on a great, great contract, though, and it only has a year left. His salary clears at the end of the season, so trading him just to create space makes no sense at all. Odds of making a deal? Terrible.
3. Dallas- Sitting around 85 or so million in committed salaries next year and that's not enough to go after a max free agent anymore. And we all know Cubes likes to do that (and fail). Likeliest player they'd look to move if things aren't working? West Matthews. The first season coming off of his achilles injury, generally a career killer, was not a promising one. Everything was down. Even in today's market, he's not worth the 17 million he's getting paid. Assuming he plays like he did last season, he's basically unmovable. Players the Cavs could fit into their TPE and may want? Dwight Powell. Has shown some promise as a young big that can shoot. Will need to see more of him this season though to say if he's worth that 9 million dollar salary or not. Odds of making a deal? Moderate
4. Portland- Becomes a possibility if they sign Ezeli to something like a Mahimi/Mozgov contract. That puts them around 82 million in salaries next year with McCollum entering restricted free agency. They obviously have to match him. Problem is, it also might mean they just wait until next off-season to figure out the salary stuff, and by that time the Varejao TPE has expired. Likeliest player they'd look to move if things aren't working? This is obvious, Evan Turner. They severly overpaid for him and if he reverts to being normal Evan Turner, he'd be the first choice to try and dump. But if he reverts to normal Evan Turner, he's unmovable. Players the Cavs could fit into their TPE and may want? Aminu, but he's not going anywhere in a salary dump with that contract. Too cheap for useful, young role players. Ed Davis makes more sense, particularly if they do add Ezeli. He still can't find a lot of PT no matter where he goes. Odds of making a deal? Poor. I say poor for a combination of two reasons. One, back to my point above, they can wait to do it until the summer when they have to match a max offer sheet for McCollum, which he will get. No need to move salary prior to that. But the second reason is because they don't actually have to move salary to match McCollum. They can go over the cap so long as their wealthy owner is willing to spend. As far as potentially chasing big name free agents, the only way they can do that is either A) letting McCollum walk and moving a smaller salary or B) moving one of the big salaries that we can't fit into our TPE, like Turner.
Two teams that I wish were on the list but just don't make sense: Houston and Memphis. Houston, first of all, can get to over 30 million in cap space pretty damn easily next summer. I'd love to get my hands on Brewer or Ariza, but I don't see why they'd just dump either one of those guys, even if things weren't going great.
As for Memphis, while you can certainly imagine things going poorly, their team salary is constructed in a way that there are almost no viable salary dump targets. Three massive, long term contracts on the books surrounded by really tiny salaries, like Brandan Wright. Moving Brandan Wright does almost nothing at all for them if things don't work out, other than possibly get them just a little bit closer to going after a max guy next summer. So, maybe you can make a case there.
I do believe Washington is the most likely team to try and clear salary this season because A) I think things are more likely to go poorly than the rest of the teams on that list and B) They've got players with long term contracts overlapping at multiple positions.
And that's my contribution. I'll admit I didn't take the closest of looks at what RFAs are coming up next summer that teams close to the line will be looking to match. I also didn't take a close look at teams who might be near the luxury tax line this season who might want to move players just to avoid paying the tax. Mainly because I'm pretty sure there aren't that many. So if anyone has any teams to add because of that, or any other reason, feel free.
Finally, this is a fairly optimistic post. I'm kind of wishing that some of these teams that are projected to be well under the cap next year will look to dump salary this season.
