Texans' Record Watch

[Jack Brickman]

Can't take your opinion seriously when you say a team that just won 9 games has a maximum win total of 6 this year

I get we all want the Texans to lose 16 games. Saying their MAX amount of wins is 6 is just biased. You have their max at 2.5 wins less than the betting line. You see no problem with that?

It's the NFL. Teams overperform on expectations all the time and then crash back down to Earth the following season. Not saying that will happen here, but it literally happens every year to a couple of teams.

 

[The Wizard of Moz]

It's the NFL. Teams overperform on expectations all the time and then crash back down to Earth the following season. Not saying that will happen here, but it literally happens every year to a couple of teams.

Saying it's the NFL is even more of a reason that it's asinine to say that their max win total is 6

It's either a gross exaggeration or a complete lack of respect for the Texans defense. There might only be 2 teams I would say have a max of 6 wins in the entire NFL. If every break goes the Texans way they only come away with 6 wins? That may be true for the Browns or Jets but that's just not the proper use of the term max

 

[Ocelot]

According to simple pythagorean expectation Houston was a 6.5 win team last year.

If you look at estimated wins (which factors in a league average schedule among other things) they performed as a 4.5 win team.

The Texans really benefited from going 5-1 in their division last year which will be tough to repeat. So there's a fair amount of data to suggest that the 9 wins may have been an outlier, especially if you believe the division improved.

 

[FiveThous]

According to simple pythagorean expectation Houston was a 6.5 win team last year.

If you look at estimated wins (which factors in a league average schedule among other things) they performed as a 4.5 win team.

The Texans really benefited from going 5-1 in their division last year which will be tough to repeat. So there's a fair amount of data to suggest that the 9 wins may have been an outlier, especially if you believe the division improved.

The Titans might be the best team in that division this year.

 

[caf]

While the Texans had a 9-7 record the last three years, their point differential is pretty alarming:

2014: 65
2015: 26
2016: -49

A negative win differential with an above .500 record isn't good.

0 - Games won by more than 7
9 - Games won by 7 or less
2 - Games lost by 7 or less
5 - Games lost by more than 7

Let that sink in. The Texans didn't win one single game by more than a touchdown.

 

[Douglar]

If the Texan's crash and burn like the 2008 Browns, I'd feel like a Boston Celtics fan waiting for a Brooklyn Nets pick to get delivered.

 

[Pick6]

I don't think anybody expected the Panthers to shit the bed like they did last year, but it happens. Honestly the only teams to surely not shit the bed are the Pat's.

 

[The Human Q-Tip]

According to simple pythagorean expectation Houston was a 6.5 win team last year.

If you look at estimated wins (which factors in a league average schedule among other things) they performed as a 4.5 win team.

The Texans really benefited from going 5-1 in their division last year which will be tough to repeat. So there's a fair amount of data to suggest that the 9 wins may have been an outlier, especially if you believe the division improved.

There's quite a large difference between how many games you expect a team to win, and the max they might win if everything goes right for them.

 

[Ocelot]

There's quite a large difference between how many games you expect a team to win, and the max they might win if everything goes right for them.

I'm not sure I understand your point. It's possible Watson could be Joe Montana and Watt, Clowney and Miller could all enjoy perfect health on the way to a surprise 16-0 season. It's unlikely, but crazier things have happened in sports.

All I'm doing is looking at the information provided from last year which suggests there's a decent likelihood of regression in overall record. Given the uncertainty for the Texans specifically and questions in the division I'm guessing the over/under will come out around 7.5 wins.

 

[The Wizard of Moz]

I'm not sure I understand your point. It's possible Watson could be Joe Montana and Watt, Clowney and Miller could all enjoy perfect health on the way to a surprise 16-0 season. It's unlikely, but crazier things have happened in sports.

All I'm doing is looking at the information provided from last year which suggests there's a decent likelihood of regression in overall record. Given the uncertainty for the Texans specifically and questions in the division I'm guessing the over/under will come out around 7.5 wins.

I knew it was only a matter of time before someone brought up the max amount of wins is 16

Ocelot there's nothing wrong with your second paragraph. All we are saying is putting the max of the Texans wins at 6 is really far fetched

 

[The Human Q-Tip]

I'm not sure I understand your point. It's possible Watson could be Joe Montana and Watt, Clowney and Miller could all enjoy perfect health on the way to a surprise 16-0 season. It's unlikely, but crazier things have happened in sports.

All I'm doing is looking at the information provided from last year which suggests there's a decent likelihood of regression in overall record. Given the uncertainty for the Texans specifically and questions in the division I'm guessing the over/under will come out around 7.5 wins.

Seriously?

Then let's try it this way. How many games do you think the Browns are likely to win this season? 4? 5? What if they catch some breaks and one of the QB's develops reasonably? Maybe 7? 8 if they get a lot of breaks?

See the difference between saying the upper end is 8, and saying the upper end is 16?

 

[TopGun]

While the Texans had a 9-7 record the last three years, their point differential is pretty alarming:

2014: 65
2015: 26
2016: -49

A negative win differential with an above .500 record isn't good.

0 - Games won by more than 7
9 - Games won by 7 or less
2 - Games lost by 7 or less
5 - Games lost by more than 7

Let that sink in. The Texans didn't win one single game by more than a touchdown.

They beat Chicago by 9 in the first game of the season, but everything else is correct and I agree with you that their record was much better than their play would suggest.

 

[caf]

They beat Chicago by 9 in the first game of the season, but everything else is correct and I agree with you that their record was much better than their play would suggest.

Oi. I can't do maths.

 

[Ocelot]

I knew it was only a matter of time before someone brought up the max amount of wins is 16

Ocelot there's nothing wrong with your second paragraph. All we are saying is putting the max of the Texans wins at 6 is really far fetched

Agreed. I'm not trying to support any notions of the Texans maxing out at 6 wins. I'm just offering some data points that suggest there could be some regression from 9 wins.

 

[SixPACK]

Jax - Win
Cinci - Win
Pats - Loss
Titans - Loss
Chiefs - Loss
Browns - Win
Bye
Seattle - Loss
Indi - Toss up
Rams - Win
Cardinals - Loss
Ravens - Toss up
Titans - Loss
49ers - Win
Jags - Win
Pitt - Loss
Colts - Toss up

That is based off of Super Bowl odds, as of today.

6-7 w/3 toss-up games (same exact SB odds)

Now, as others have said, anything can freakin' happen. It's the NFL. They will win some of those "Loss" games and lose some of those "Win" games. They could win all "Toss up" games or lose all of them.

With that, I am going to say we will get their pick anywhere between 14-25