The Brian Hoyer thread...

[Huber.]

Tyson chicken is the sponsor in the background....

 

[Real Deal]

I'd say Miami played prevent defense in the 2nd half that allowed Hoyer to collect himself.

 

[Randolphkeys]

I'd say Miami played prevent defense in the 2nd half that allowed Hoyer to collect himself.

I completely agree, but Miami's ability to score at will, both in the air and on the ground, had whipped the crowd in a frenzy in the first half. Had the Texans done anything defensively, his half would have looked more like Phillip Rivers or Andrew Luck's cluncker first halves. Hoyer didn't have a good first half, but were we are still blaming everything that happens in a football game on the QB.

 

[Soda]

Hoyer didn't have a good first half, but were we are still blaming everything that happens in a football game on the QB.

Honestly, I'm surprised you're surprised. There aren't many people out there willing to listen to reason after a loss. Or after a win. As a society, people like low hanging fruit.

 

[Randolphkeys]

Honestly, I'm surprised you're surprised. There aren't many people out there willing to listen to reason after a loss. Or after a win. As a society, people like low hanging fruit.

Multiple years of the same bad posting won't sit right with me; there shouldn't be surprise there. You are absolutely right that simple statements for the complexities of the NFL reveal simple-mindedness; but we have a few people who get off on trolling rather than discussion.

 

[AZ_]

I completely agree, but Miami's ability to score at will, both in the air and on the ground, had whipped the crowd in a frenzy in the first half. Had the Texans done anything defensively, his half would have looked more like Phillip Rivers or Andrew Luck's cluncker first halves. Hoyer didn't have a good first half, but were we are still blaming everything that happens in a football game on the QB.

They gained three yards on their first seven drives.

Three.

The defense was bad, the defense IS bad.

Hoyer was bad, Hoyer IS bad.

 

[AZ_]

Hoyer may not be good.

But at least he's not Ryan Mallett.

 

[Randolphkeys]

Well, let's pretend that an actual discussion is going to take place here rather than the usual attempts at annoying each other.

Half a game of football, carefully selected by convenient timing, doesn't tell any story about Brian Hoyer or any player for that matter. It tells the story of a few Browns fans who had seen enough of Todd Gurley running amok on the overrated Browns defense one afternoon that they sought some solace in a former Brown's quarterback's struggles.

If we were to look at the roughest half for most every QB not named Tom Brady or Aaron Rodgers this season, they have all had at least one terrible half.

So this is week 8, we don't need to extrapolate small sample sizes anymore. Hoyer has played 1 1/2 bad games. He has played 3 1/2 good games. His stats per game this season rank him below the top 10 quarterbacks and somewhere in that 11-20 range. I'd expect that due to injuries and his "hot and cold" style of play, he ends up somewhere in the 15-25 range by the end of the season.

This is exactly what we saw last year as a Brown. He is a pro-style quarterback in his prime who doesn't make the kind of mistakes you see from guys who can't make NFL throws, however he has more bad Sundays where nothing is clicking than the top 10 type QBs in the circle of trust. Can he pass to a receiver who is "college open"? Yes, fairly consistently. Does he pass to a receiver who is "NFL open", meaning the receiver needs to break at the right time in tight coverage? About half the Sundays I've seen, he does and the other half he doesn't. Does he handle pressure? Not as well as Brady and Rodgers, but not as poorly as several QBs starting right now.

He's in the lower-middle of starters, just like he is paid to be.

So, simple statements like "He may not be good" don't speak to the scarcity of "good" quarterbacks, in the subjective opinion of a few people. He's a bridge QB who has uneven Sundays, just like many, many other QBs in this league.

 

[AZ_]

Well, let's pretend that an actual discussion is going to take place here rather than the usual attempts at annoying each other.

Half a game of football, carefully selected by convenient timing, doesn't tell any story about Brian Hoyer or any player for that matter. It tells the story of a few Browns fans who had seen enough of Todd Gurley running amok on the overrated Browns defense one afternoon that they sought some solace in a former Brown's quarterback's struggles.

If we were to look at the roughest half for most every QB not named Tom Brady or Aaron Rodgers this season, they have all had at least one terrible half.

So this is week 8, we don't need to extrapolate small sample sizes anymore. Hoyer has played 1 1/2 bad games. He has played 3 1/2 good games. His stats per game this season rank him below the top 10 quarterbacks and somewhere in that 11-20 range. I'd expect that due to injuries and his "hot and cold" style of paly, he ends up somewhere in the 15-25 range by the end of the season.

This is exactly what we saw last year as a Brown. He is a pro-style quarterback in his prime who doesn't make the kind of mistakes you see from guys who can't make NFL throws, however he has more bad Sundays where nothing is clocking than the top 10 type QBs in the circle of trust. Can he pass to a receiver who is "college open"? Yes, fairly consistently. Does he pass to a receiver who is "NFL open", meaning the receiver needs to break at the right time in tight coverage? About half the Sundays I've seen, he does and the other half he doesn't. Does he handle pressure? Not as well as Brady and Rodgers, but not as poorly as several QBs starting right now.

He's in the lower-middle of starters, just like he is paid to be.

So, simple statements like "He may not be good" don't speak to the scarcity of "good" quarterbacks, in the subjective opinion of a few people. He's a bridge QB who has uneven Sundays, just like many, many other QBs in this league.

Saying he doesn't handle pressure as well as Brady or Rodgers may be obvious, but I'd stop short of saying "several."

Of 30 QBs eligible to qualify, Hoyer's tied for 29th in dropbacks affected by pressure (just 26%). Now I know there has been insinuated on here that the offensive line has been a major culprit during his struggles, however this would lead me to believe that statement is slightly incorrect.

When pressured, Hoyer ranks 27th in completion percentage. If you take away drops and throw aways, he's actually 29th (accuracy % under pressure).

Too small of a sample size?

Let's dive into 2014 as well...

Hoyer ranked 20th of 27 eligible QBs by being pressured on just 29% of his dropbacks.

While pressured, he was tied for 24th in completion percentage. If you take away drops and throw aways, he once again got worse and ranked 26th out of 27 eligible QBs (50.5%).

When people say he handles the pressure better than several of the QBs starting in the NFL today, I find myself asking questions like, "Who?" and "Why is that person starting?"

I may never find the answers, neither may the Browns....but I long for a day when we no longer have these discussions of debating the merits of bridge QBs whose dreams of NFL glory will soon be lost to reality.

 

[Randolphkeys]

Saying he doesn't handle pressure as well as Brady or Rodgers may be obvious, but I'd stop short of saying "several."

Of 30 QBs eligible to qualify, Hoyer's tied for 29th in dropbacks affected by pressure (just 26%). Now I know there has been insinuated on here that the offensive line has been a major culprit during his struggles, however this would lead me to believe that statement is slightly incorrect.

When pressured, Hoyer ranks 27th in completion percentage. If you take away drops and throw aways, he's actually 29th (accuracy % under pressure).

Too small of a sample size?

Let's dive into 2014 as well...

Hoyer ranked 20th of 27 eligible QBs by being pressured on just 29% of his dropbacks.

While pressured, he was tied for 24th in completion percentage. If you take away drops and throw aways, he once again got worse and ranked 26th out of 27 eligible QBs (50.5%).

When people say he handles the pressure better than several of the QBs starting in the NFL today, I find myself asking questions like, "Who?" and "Why is that person starting?"

I may never find the answers, neither may the Browns....but I long for a day when we no longer have these discussions of debating the merits of bridge QBs whose dreams of NFL glory will soon be lost to reality.

I think you have some great points on one specific area of quarterback play: What happens when there is significant pressure due to the pocket breaking down.

First of all, I'd like to point out we have stopped discussing many other integral facets of what a QB must do. Making NFL throws in tight coverage is now off the table. We are just looking at how Hoyer handles pressure compared to other QBs.

In that situation, we have all seen Hoyer play multiple games, and probably significantly less with our own eyes for a few others. I won't pretend I have watched Cousins or Bortles NFL careers as often, so I'm going on what I remember.

We can agree Hoyer isn't a one read or two read QB. In pressure, he makes his progressions and throws the ball away, or attempts to force a ball. Guys like Wilson, Newton, Kaepernick, Taylor, Vick, or Landry Jones are going to escape much more effectively than Hoyer, one of the more immobile QBs taking snaps regularly. The one or two read QBs who can run have a short shelf life and haven't shown consistent winning play, but mobility with the ability to run a pro style offense like Wilson is certainly ideal. Even Luck, Rodgers, Bortles, and even McCown can gain extra yards or at least buy time while playing a pro-style offense. This is going to skew the numbers a bit, because Hoyer never tucks and runs. I never denied he is right there with Peyton Manning in poor escapability since his knee injury, let alone scrambling.

Hoyer handles pressure much like the current late 30s incarnation of Peyton Manning. He is quick to dump the ball out of bounds. If that isn't working as the game rolls on and his team falls behind, he forces throws to "make something happen". We saw that two weeks ago when "Tail-End of His Career Manning Who Has Regular Cable" had a tough time moving the ball against Cleveland.

However, two areas regarding pressure that impress me are Hoyer's low turnovers and his low sack rate. Despite the lack of mobility, he has taken an average of 2 sacks per game, tied with P Manning and Matt Ryan among others. That is top quarter of the starters, much like he was as a Brown. McCown on the other hand has taken 3.5 per game. In interception rate, he is tied with Eli Manning for a very low .6 picks per game, again top quarter of the league among starters. McCown has also been very strong lately and is now at .5 a game. And while Hoyer had that brutal first game with fumbling, it hasn't happened since. McCown is among the worst at losing fumbles from the QB position so far this year.

Many guys who dance around trying to make something happen end up taking more sacks and turning the ball over a lot. That is why Hoyer has been labeled a guy who minimizes risks despite being clearly immobile. This Browns offense wanted to build a moving pocket offense with bootlegs. Okay, bad fit for Hoyer. But there is evidence he has been a good match for the offense they are running in Texas.

 

[Ocelot]

So this thread still isn't in Around the NFL yet?

 

[The Human Q-Tip]

Let's dive into 2014 as well...

Hoyer ranked 20th of 27 eligible QBs by being pressured on just 29% of his dropbacks.

While pressured, he was tied for 24th in completion percentage. If you take away drops and throw aways, he once again got worse and ranked 26th out of 27 eligible QBs (50.5%)....

When people say he handles the pressure better than several of the QBs starting in the NFL today, I find myself asking questions like, "Who?" and "Why is that person starting?"

Well, that's all very nice, but aren't you overlooking one key fact?

He may have ranked 24th in completion percentage when pressured in 2014, but he was 32nd in overall completion percentage. In other words, as shitty as his relative accuracy is under pressure, it's even shittier when he's not under pressure.

So, you could actually make the case that he's great (at least if graded on the Hoyer curve) under pressure! Doesn't help much if you're looking for a QB with decent accuracy, but at least it's something.

Sort of, anyway....

 

[MalTalm]

Well, that's all very nice, but aren't you overlooking one key fact?

He may have ranked 24th in completion percentage when pressured in 2014, but he was 32nd in overall completion percentage. In other words, as shitty as his relative accuracy is under pressure, it's even shittier when he's not under pressure.

So, you could actually make the case that he's great (at least if graded on the Hoyer curve) under pressure! Doesn't help much if you're looking for a QB with decent accuracy, but at least it's something.

Sort of, anyway....

I propose we establish a Hoyer curve by which we can judge all future QB prospects. a chart of relative comp % w/ pressure vs. without.

We can also have a Weeden curve, relative sack % vs blitz vs w/o blitz.

And a Manziel curve, relative moxie vs relative NFL production.

 

[Randolphkeys]

I bet this thread would have continued to go unused if the Browns didn't absolutely suck, resembling a flaming junkyard tire fire emanating a thick, acrid smoke.

...Thread moved.

 

[AZ_]

I like to think it would have kept going in your honor for the duration of his career.