The Magic Number Thread: 2017 Edition

[col63onel]

@shoes22 I think we've actually clinched the tiebreaker vs Boston. Even if we lose against Boston next week.

Refer to my post earlier in this thread.*

First tiebreaker is H2H
Second tiebreaker is conference record
Third tiebreaker is record vs playoff teams in your own conference.

http://www.nba.com/news/features/playoff.tiebreakers/

Obviously, if we beat Boston, we win the season series 3-1.

If we lose, the season series is tied at 2-2, which means we go to conference record.

Right now, Cavs are one game up on Boston in the loss column overall, but 2 games up in the loss column in conference record. Both teams only have games vs the East left. So if Boston ties us in overall record, that means they only gained 1 game on us, both in overall and conference record, which puts Boston still 1 game behind us in conference record.

*Technically, the 2nd tiebreaker is division record, but that only applies to teams in the same division, so obviously doesn't apply to us and Boston.

 

[Ohio]

Celtics, Raptors, Wizards all lost last night. I like.

 

[shoes22]

The problem with counting wins for Boston and saying "easy games" is that Boston isn't of the caliber where their games are a sure thing by any stretch of the imagination.

Yeah in my model at least, I'm not counting Boston's games as "sure things"...the bigger issue right now is we can't count on the Cavs to win easy games.

@shoes22 I think we've actually clinched the tiebreaker vs Boston. Even if we lose against Boston next week.

Holy shit you're right! Great find. We actually clinched the tiebreaker over Boston like a week and a half ago. I would've caught this sooner or later, but I'm glad you did and I'm disappointed myself for not looking over the schedule more carefully.

Anyhow in light of these happenings, here's how the standings and projections look before the start of tonight's games! Our odds for securing the #1 seed are just under a coin flip.

Projected #3 seed clinch date: Cavs clinch over the Wizards on Friday, April 7th
Average #3 seed clinch date: Cavs clinch over the Wizards on Friday, April 7th
Current odds Cavs lock up at least the #3 seed: 96.43% (+3.55%)

Projected #2 seed clinch date: Cavs clinch over the Raptors on Sunday, April 9th
Average #2 seed clinch date: Cavs clinch over the Raptors on Friday, April 7th
Current odds Cavs lock up at least the #2 seed: 95.72% (+5.42%)

Projected #1 seed clinch date: Celtics clinch on Monday, April 10th
Average #1 seed clinch date: Celtics clinch on Wednesday, April 12th
Current odds Cavs clinch #1 seed: 45.62% (+30.67%)

Cavs' magic number to clinch home court through the second round: 6
Cavs' magic number to clinch the #1 seed:

 

[shoes22]

Updated standings! The Cavs were expected to lose last night so none of the projections have changed.

Projected #3 seed clinch date: Cavs clinch over the Wizards on Friday, April 7th
Average #3 seed clinch date: Cavs clinch over the Wizards on Friday, April 7th
Current odds Cavs lock up at least the #3 seed: 94.68% (-1.75%)

Projected #2 seed clinch date: Cavs clinch over the Raptors on Sunday, April 9th
Average #2 seed clinch date: Cavs clinch over the Raptors on Friday, April 7th
Current odds Cavs lock up at least the #2 seed: 93.7% (-2.02%)

Projected #1 seed clinch date: Celtics clinch on Monday, April 10th
Average #1 seed clinch date: Celtics clinch on Wednesday, April 12th
Current odds Cavs clinch #1 seed: 35.59% (-10.03%)

Cavs' magic number to clinch home court through the second round: 6
Cavs' magic number to clinch the #1 seed:

 

[wuck]

 

[The Wizard of Moz]

Fuck the Magic and fuck whoever that dude is who looks like a fucking QUAIL who had that weak ass last drive to lose it for ORL

 

[shoes22]

My model once again correctly predicted the outcome of all of last night's games, so there are no changes in projections.

Projected #3 seed clinch date: Cavs clinch over the Wizards on Friday, April 7th
Average #3 seed clinch date: Cavs clinch over the Wizards on Friday, April 7th
Current odds Cavs lock up at least the #3 seed: 98.08% (+3.4%)

Projected #2 seed clinch date: Cavs clinch over the Raptors on Sunday, April 9th
Average #2 seed clinch date: Cavs clinch over the Raptors on Friday, April 7th
Current odds Cavs lock up at least the #2 seed: 95.61% (+1.91%)

Projected #1 seed clinch date: Celtics clinch on Monday, April 10th
Average #1 seed clinch date: Celtics clinch on Wednesday, April 12th
Current odds Cavs clinch #1 seed: 38.51% (+2.92%)

Cavs' magic number to clinch home court through the second round: 4
Cavs' magic number to clinch the #1 seed:

 

[wuck]

 

[shoes22]

Once again, another perfect night in the model projections!

Projected #3 seed clinch date: Cavs clinch over the Wizards on Friday, April 7th
Average #3 seed clinch date: Cavs clinch over the Wizards on Thursday, April 6th
Current odds Cavs lock up at least the #3 seed: 99.56% (+1.48%)

Projected #2 seed clinch date: Cavs clinch over the Raptors on Sunday, April 9th
Average #2 seed clinch date: Cavs clinch over the Raptors on Friday, April 7th
Current odds Cavs lock up at least the #2 seed: 96.85% (+1.24%)

Projected #1 seed clinch date: Celtics clinch on Monday, April 10th
Average #1 seed clinch date: Celtics clinch on Wednesday, April 12th
Current odds Cavs clinch #1 seed: 36.73% (-1.78%)

Cavs' magic number to clinch home court through the second round: 3
Cavs' magic number to clinch the #1 seed:

This one goes out to the shortest tenured Cavalier in history!

 

[Ohio]

Top 2 seed all but clinched with Toronto losing tonight.

 

[shoes22]

Top 2 seed all but clinched with Toronto losing tonight.

Right you are! In fact with the unexpected Toronto loss, we're actually expected to clinch them first over Washington, assuming we don't clinch over both of them with a win over the Celtics tomorrow. Updated odds:

Projected #3 seed clinch date: Cavs clinch over the Wizards on Friday, April 7th
Average #3 seed clinch date: Cavs clinch over the Wizards on Thursday, April 6th
Current odds Cavs lock up at least the #3 seed: 99.79% (+0.23%)

Projected #2 seed clinch date: Cavs clinch over the Raptors on Friday, April 7th
Average #2 seed clinch date: Cavs clinch over the Raptors on Wednesday, April 5th
Current odds Cavs lock up at least the #2 seed: 99.68% (+2.83%)

Projected #1 seed clinch date: Celtics clinch on Monday, April 10th
Average #1 seed clinch date: Celtics clinch on Wednesday, April 12th
Current odds Cavs clinch #1 seed: 39.77% (+3.04%)

Cavs' magic number to clinch home court through the second round: 1
Cavs' magic number to clinch the #1 seed:

Pipe 'em JR!!

 

[The Wizard of Moz]

@shoes22 hope you've got the Dion picture ready to roll for tomorrow night


Aye!

 

[KilgoreTrout]

@shoes22 hope you've got the Dion picture ready to roll for tomorrow night


Aye!

A certain 7-footer out of Kentucky State University might have something to say about that...

 

[Snarly]

Damn Indians and Cavs have to playing Important games at the same time. A sweep for the Tribe and a possible Clinch for the Cavs. UGH! I will be pulling for the Cavs or watching that more for sure because this will be a play off style game. Two teams will be ready healthy and to go. What a fun time to be a Cleveland sports fan.

 

[Arketebel]