The Magic Number Thread: 2017 Edition

[Tonedef75]

Couldn't we clinch on Friday with a Cavs victory and Celtics loss?

No, but we can clinch on Saturday since the Celtics play in Charlotte that night. They don't play on Friday.

 

[Taiter]

Couldn't we clinch on Friday with a Cavs victory and Celtics loss?

I expect the Celtics to bounce back and win Saturday night, but I guess it depends on how long the Wednesday hangover lasts.

 

[bob2the2nd]

I expect the cavs will have to win 2 games to clinch and Boston will try and finish strong. Im really torn if i would rather see the wizards or raptors in the 4 seed. Im leaning raptors.

 

[KilgoreTrout]

 

[shoes22]

Okay as promised, here's how the breakdown looks. The percentage on the left are the odds the Cavs clinch on a particular day. The percentage on the right is the cumulative percentage, which tell you the odds that we've clinched by a particular day. Those 2 numbers make up how the projected and average clinch dates are determined at the bottom. With the Celts loss last night, our projected clinch date has moved up a day.

Cavs clinch on Saturday, April 8th: 45.05% | 45.05%
Cavs clinch on Sunday, April 9th: 28.74% | 73.79%
Cavs clinch on Monday, April 10th: 11.63% | 85.42%
Cavs clinch on Wednesday, April 12th: 10.03% | 95.45% (+8.56%)
Celtics clinch: 4.55%​

Projected #1 seed clinch date: Cavs clinch on Saturday, April 8th
Average #1 seed clinch date: Cavs clinch on Sunday, April 9th
Cavs' magic number to clinch the #1 seed:

 

[KilgoreTrout]

Can't believe people didn't appreciate my old skool Cavs pics more. Elmore Smith looking majestic? Dajuan Wagner driving the lane? Come on! Where's the love?!

 

[buzzdog]

Can't believe people didn't appreciate my old skool Cavs pics more. Elmore Smith looking majestic? Dajuan Wagner driving the lane? Come on! Where's the love?!

He's number 0.

 

[KilgoreTrout]

He's number 0.

See above!

 

[Cratylus]

I'm curious how Shoes' metrics take into account the suckitude and cluelessness of Lue.

 

[The Wizard of Moz]

Can't believe people didn't appreciate my old skool Cavs pics more. Elmore Smith looking majestic? Dajuan Wagner driving the lane? Come on! Where's the love?!

I'm like 9 years old I never got to watch any of them play

 

[shoes22]

I'm curious how Shoes' metrics take into account the suckitude and cluelessness of Lue.

The results of the last 45 days take care of that for me by having our remaining games projected as "toss-ups" (probability of winning anywhere between 47-53%) for the 2 games between the Hawks and Raptors, and we're actually projected to lose to the Heat on Monday, which is pathetic when you consider the talent advantage we have.

In the grand scheme of things it doesn't matter, because as of now our projected clinch dates just get shifted down a day. Odds of securing the #1 seed are still firmly in our favor. Breakdown:

Cavs clinch on Saturday, April 8th: 0% (-45.05%)
Cavs clinch on Sunday, April 9th: 27.56% | 27.56%
Cavs clinch on Monday, April 10th: 25.79% | 53.35%
Cavs clinch on Wednesday, April 12th: 26.32% | 79.67% (-15.78%)
Celtics clinch: 20.33%​

Projected #1 seed clinch date: Cavs clinch on Sunday, April 9th
Average #1 seed clinch date: Cavs clinch on Monday, April 10th
Cavs' magic number to clinch the #1 seed:

 

[shoes22]

With the Celtics win tonight, the Cavs have run out of breathing room. They must win tomorrow against the Hawks, or they will no longer be the favorites to get the 1 seed.

Cavs clinch on Sunday, April 9th: 0% (-27.56%)
Cavs clinch on Monday, April 10th: 28.36% | 28.36%
Cavs clinch on Wednesday, April 12th: 36.68% | 65.04% (-14.63%)
Celtics clinch: 34.96%​

Projected #1 seed clinch date: Cavs clinch on Wednesday, April 12th
Average #1 seed clinch date: Cavs clinch on Wednesday, April 12th
Cavs' magic number to clinch the #1 seed:

 

[Taiter]

Cavs should sit the starters last two games. Just give up the 1 seed and rest players. Team needs to get its mind reset after this dumpster fire.

And again, the officials should be fired. That was one of the worst officiated games I have ever seen.

 

[wuck]

Agreed. I think they have to concede the Heat game and rest the big three, all of whom played heavy minutes today.

 

[shoes22]

Yeah...unlikely we get the #1 seed anymore, unfortunately.

Cavs clinch on Monday, April 10th: 5.25% | 5.25% (-23.11%)
Cavs clinch on Wednesday, April 12th: 35.94% | 41.19% (-23.85%)
Celtics clinch: 58.81%​

Projected #1 seed clinch date: Celtics clinch on Wednesday, April 12th
Average #1 seed clinch date: Celtics clinch on Wednesday, April 12th
Cavs' magic number to clinch the #1 seed: