The two point guard offense

[Wham with the Right Hand]

I was looking at how various 5-man combinations have done so far and was struck by how effective Garland and Rubio were when they played together. The numbers represent points per 100 possessions.

Here is how units with Garland, Rubio, and the listed players have fared:

Mark, Mobley, JA +52.4 (78 possessions)
Cedi, Mobley, Love +13.6 (72)
Cedi, Mobley, JA +49.8 (52)
Cedi, Windler, Mobley +25.3 (47)
Wade, Mark, Love +39.4 (42)
Cedi, Love, JA +31.0 (41)
Cedi, Mark, Love +74.6 (29)
Okoro, Love, JA +79.3 (29)
Wade, Mark, JA +43.6 (24)
Okoro, Mobley, JA +10.6 (22)
Wade, Mobley, JA +9.5 (21)
Sexton, Mobley, JA -88.3 (20)

OK, putting Garland, Rubio, and Sexton on the floor together was a disaster. Rubio is not a small forward.

There were only a couple of Garland/Rubio units that were negative against the 11 listed above that were positive, in some cases, wildly positive.

cleaningtheglass.com ranks the top four most used Cavaliers units against the rest of the league.

1. Garland/Okoro/Markkanen/Mobley/Allen +12.3 in 397 possessions (72nd percentile)

2. Garland/Okoro/Wade/Mobley/Allen +19.3 in 218 possessions (85th percentile)

3. Garland/Stevens/Markkanen/Mobley/Allen +13.5 in 176 possessions (77th percentile)

4. Garland/Sexton/Markkanen/Mobley/Allen +2.1 in 140 possessions (45th percentile)
That last unit could be the starting lineup next season.

The fact that the 2nd most used 5-man unit includes Wade and the 3rd most used unit includes Stevens shows just how much injuries have impacted the Cavs this year. Assuming everybody is healthy coming out of the break I expect Wade and Stevens to get very little playing time from here on out.

Looking at these numbers makes me wonder just how much Rubio’s injury affected the Cavs’ season. Some of those Garland/Rubio units were absolutely destroying the opposition. I mean like 50-80 points per 100 possessions. I get that the sample sizes were small; less than half a game in most cases. But considering the unit of Garland, Rubio, Marky, Mobley, and Allen was outscoring opponents by 52 points is pretty mind blowing, and that’s based on 72 possessions.

How much has Rubio’s injury hurt the Cavs? Maybe not at all; the Cavs have a winning percentage of 58.8% in games Rubio played and 62.5% in games he did not. But Rubio played in a lot of games during the COVID period when key players were out, usually on both teams.

When JBB put two point guards on the floor together the results were often amazingly good. He’s starting to try that for brief periods with Garland and Rondo. We’ll see how that works out over the next 24 games.

Also, how will it work out next year to have Garland and Sexton on the court together with three bigs? Two guards who can both get dribble penetration and force defensive help, leaving a big man open for a lob or a bounce pass. They can take turns initiating the offense, or let whoever has the slowest defender run the middle pick-and-roll while the other spots up for a 3.

Same with Garland and LeVert, who has very good numbers running the P&R. If JBB can get everybody to buy in to their roles and put the right pieces together next year this could be a top 10 scoring team IMO.

 

[foucault87]

The reason its hard to replicate a 2 PG offense that includes Rubio is what makes Rubio unique even among the many good PGs in the league today: his vision. There are maybe 4 players in the league that have a comparable understanding of how the game moves, and I doubt we are going to be getting Luka, Trae, or Joker through the door soon. On the plus side, we do have the 4th guy (Rondo), but he is 35 and struggles to get into the paint like he used to.

I do think this has shown a good foundation for what we can expect moving forward from Garland, who while not a top 5 passer, is certainty top 10. Combine that with his shooting stroke out to Dame/Steph range and his willingness to move offball and you have a player that is super versatile on offense and can be complimented by any number of back court partners.

 

[Wham with the Right Hand]

One thing I noticed since posting this is how few possessions even our most commonly used units have. Each game consists of about 100 possessions per team. The Cavs are averaging 85 shots per game and when you add in 10 trips to the free throw line and 14 turnovers you come up with 109 possessions. If you don't want to count offensive rebounds as a possession you can subtract 10 and get 99 possessions per game.

The Cavs' most used lineup only has 397 possessions this season. That's four games. Four games out of 58. Our second most used lineup has only two games of accumulated court time.

That fact that Garland/Sexton/Markkanen/Mobley/Allen is still our 4th most used unit despite Sexton playing in just over 10 out of 58 games is crazy. It shows how much injuries have affected the Cavs this season.

For example, Phoenix, which has the NBA's best record, has gotten 1,267 possessions from their starting unit. That's over three times as many as the Cavs. Seventeen teams have the top unit getting more than 500 possessions. Twenty teams have at least one unit getting more possessions than the Cavs' most used group.

 

[2 For The Brew]

One thing I noticed since posting this is how few possessions even our most commonly used units have. Each game consists of about 100 possessions per team. The Cavs are averaging 85 shots per game and when you add in 10 trips to the free throw line and 14 turnovers you come up with 109 possessions. If you don't want to count offensive rebounds as a possession you can subtract 10 and get 99 possessions per game.

The Cavs' most used lineup only has 397 possessions this season. That's four games. Four games out of 58. Our second most used lineup has only two games of accumulated court time.

That fact that Garland/Sexton/Markkanen/Mobley/Allen is still our 4th most used unit despite Sexton playing in just over 10 out of 58 games is crazy. It shows how much injuries have affected the Cavs this season.

For example, Phoenix, which has the NBA's best record, has gotten 1,267 possessions from their starting unit. That's over three times as many as the Cavs. Seventeen teams have the top unit getting more than 500 possessions. Twenty teams have at least one unit getting more possessions than the Cavs' most used group.

And yet we’re still winning a lot of games even with the lineup turmoil due to injuries (Covid hit everybody). Says a lot about our team and coaching staff.

In contrast the legendary 1975-76 Cavaliers missed ONE game total among all five starters (regular season). 409/410. Health is a big advantage.

 

[Wham with the Right Hand]

Not only injuries and COVID have limited the number of minutes the starters have played together but the schedule has been the second toughest in the league according to teamrankings.com.

It seems like the key players have taken turns being out. Garland missed four games with a back problem. Markkanen has been out with a sprained ankle. Okoro had an elbow injury. So what should be our staring lineup of DG/Okoro/Marky/Mobley/Allen has only played the equivalent of four games and we're 70% through the season.

 

[KansasCavFan]

I was looking at how various 5-man combinations have done so far and was struck by how effective Garland and Rubio were when they played together. The numbers represent points per 100 possessions.

Here is how units with Garland, Rubio, and the listed players have fared:

Mark, Mobley, JA +52.4 (78 possessions)
Cedi, Mobley, Love +13.6 (72)
Cedi, Mobley, JA +49.8 (52)
Cedi, Windler, Mobley +25.3 (47)
Wade, Mark, Love +39.4 (42)
Cedi, Love, JA +31.0 (41)
Cedi, Mark, Love +74.6 (29)
Okoro, Love, JA +79.3 (29)
Wade, Mark, JA +43.6 (24)
Okoro, Mobley, JA +10.6 (22)
Wade, Mobley, JA +9.5 (21)
Sexton, Mobley, JA -88.3 (20)

OK, putting Garland, Rubio, and Sexton on the floor together was a disaster. Rubio is not a small forward.

There were only a couple of Garland/Rubio units that were negative against the 11 listed above that were positive, in some cases, wildly positive.

cleaningtheglass.com ranks the top four most used Cavaliers units against the rest of the league.

1. Garland/Okoro/Markkanen/Mobley/Allen +12.3 in 397 possessions (72nd percentile)

2. Garland/Okoro/Wade/Mobley/Allen +19.3 in 218 possessions (85th percentile)

3. Garland/Stevens/Markkanen/Mobley/Allen +13.5 in 176 possessions (77th percentile)

4. Garland/Sexton/Markkanen/Mobley/Allen +2.1 in 140 possessions (45th percentile)
That last unit could be the starting lineup next season.

The fact that the 2nd most used 5-man unit includes Wade and the 3rd most used unit includes Stevens shows just how much injuries have impacted the Cavs this year. Assuming everybody is healthy coming out of the break I expect Wade and Stevens to get very little playing time from here on out.

Looking at these numbers makes me wonder just how much Rubio’s injury affected the Cavs’ season. Some of those Garland/Rubio units were absolutely destroying the opposition. I mean like 50-80 points per 100 possessions. I get that the sample sizes were small; less than half a game in most cases. But considering the unit of Garland, Rubio, Marky, Mobley, and Allen was outscoring opponents by 52 points is pretty mind blowing, and that’s based on 72 possessions.

How much has Rubio’s injury hurt the Cavs? Maybe not at all; the Cavs have a winning percentage of 58.8% in games Rubio played and 62.5% in games he did not. But Rubio played in a lot of games during the COVID period when key players were out, usually on both teams.

When JBB put two point guards on the floor together the results were often amazingly good. He’s starting to try that for brief periods with Garland and Rondo. We’ll see how that works out over the next 24 games.

Also, how will it work out next year to have Garland and Sexton on the court together with three bigs? Two guards who can both get dribble penetration and force defensive help, leaving a big man open for a lob or a bounce pass. They can take turns initiating the offense, or let whoever has the slowest defender run the middle pick-and-roll while the other spots up for a 3.

Same with Garland and LeVert, who has very good numbers running the P&R. If JBB can get everybody to buy in to their roles and put the right pieces together next year this could be a top 10 scoring team IMO.

This combo is interesting. And not at all that surprising.

 

[foucault87]

This combo is interesting. And not at all that surprising.

Of course, Garland/Mobley/Allen are the best parts of most of our lineups

 

[KansasCavFan]

Of course, Garland/Mobley/Allen are the best parts of most of our lineups

Yet their highest output is when paired with Okoro and Wade. Interesting!

 

[foucault87]

Yet their highest output is when paired with Okoro and Wade. Interesting!

Edit: misread

and why is that?

 

[KansasCavFan]

Edit: misread

and why is that?

You'd probably have to ask Wham for sure since he is the one who is posting the information.
From the eyeball test? This group shares the ball the best and plays the best defense. Good defense will add to the +/- coulmn too.

Wham?

 

[CavsKermit]

The only way Sexton is re-signing here is if LeVert is a borderline disaster, and even in that scenario, Sexton is not a PG and shouldn't be in the starting unit. He's too much of a liability on the defensive end which is why were seeing Garland/Rubio and Rubio/Okoro lineups even when he was healthy. But there's no way the Cavs should be paying LeVert $19M and Sexton even $15M. That's just malpractice in terms of cap space.

 

[foucault87]

You'd probably have to ask Wham for sure since he is the one who is posting the information.
From the eyeball test? This group shares the ball the best and plays the best defense. Good defense will add to the +/- coulmn too.

Wham?

I would also argue its a sample size thing. I mean 500 mins is not that much. Too many injuries. You could just as easily slot Markk or Love in there and get similar production

The only way Sexton is re-signing here is if LeVert is a borderline disaster, and even in that scenario, Sexton is not a PG and shouldn't be in the starting unit. He's too much of a liability on the defensive end which is why were seeing Garland/Rubio and Rubio/Okoro lineups even when he was healthy. But there's no way the Cavs should be paying LeVert $19M and Sexton even $15M. That's just malpractice in terms of cap space.

I disagree with some of this. Having more creators is always a good thing especially when we have only Garland for a while now. He still has potential as a passer and has potential to improve on defense. I think the real malpractice is ascribing Sexton to a limited mold for what he is as a player. HE is young and will get better.

 

[KansasCavFan]

I would also argue its a sample size thing. I mean 500 mins is not that much. Too many injuries. You could just as easily slot Markk or Love in there and get similar production



I disagree with some of this. Having more creators is always a good thing especially when we have only Garland for a while now. He still has potential as a passer and has potential to improve on defense. I think the real malpractice is ascribing Sexton to a limited mold for what he is as a player. HE is young and will get better.

They probably did. They just listed the top 4. And the one that is the best was with Okoro and Wade. And again, the eyeball test supports the numbers. And vice versa.

 

[The Human Q-Tip]

I was looking at how various 5-man combinations have done so far and was struck by how effective Garland and Rubio were when they played together. The numbers represent points per 100 possessions.

Here is how units with Garland, Rubio, and the listed players have fared:

Mark, Mobley, JA +52.4 (78 possessions)
Cedi, Mobley, Love +13.6 (72)
Cedi, Mobley, JA +49.8 (52)
Cedi, Windler, Mobley +25.3 (47)
Wade, Mark, Love +39.4 (42)
Cedi, Love, JA +31.0 (41)
Cedi, Mark, Love +74.6 (29)
Okoro, Love, JA +79.3 (29)
Wade, Mark, JA +43.6 (24)
Okoro, Mobley, JA +10.6 (22)
Wade, Mobley, JA +9.5 (21)
Sexton, Mobley, JA -88.3 (20)

OK, putting Garland, Rubio, and Sexton on the floor together was a disaster. Rubio is not a small forward.

There were only a couple of Garland/Rubio units that were negative against the 11 listed above that were positive, in some cases, wildly positive.

cleaningtheglass.com ranks the top four most used Cavaliers units against the rest of the league.

1. Garland/Okoro/Markkanen/Mobley/Allen +12.3 in 397 possessions (72nd percentile)

2. Garland/Okoro/Wade/Mobley/Allen +19.3 in 218 possessions (85th percentile)

3. Garland/Stevens/Markkanen/Mobley/Allen +13.5 in 176 possessions (77th percentile)

4. Garland/Sexton/Markkanen/Mobley/Allen +2.1 in 140 possessions (45th percentile)
That last unit could be the starting lineup next season.

The fact that the 2nd most used 5-man unit includes Wade and the 3rd most used unit includes Stevens shows just how much injuries have impacted the Cavs this year. Assuming everybody is healthy coming out of the break I expect Wade and Stevens to get very little playing time from here on out.

Looking at these numbers makes me wonder just how much Rubio’s injury affected the Cavs’ season. Some of those Garland/Rubio units were absolutely destroying the opposition. I mean like 50-80 points per 100 possessions. I get that the sample sizes were small; less than half a game in most cases. But considering the unit of Garland, Rubio, Marky, Mobley, and Allen was outscoring opponents by 52 points is pretty mind blowing, and that’s based on 72 possessions.

How much has Rubio’s injury hurt the Cavs? Maybe not at all; the Cavs have a winning percentage of 58.8% in games Rubio played and 62.5% in games he did not. But Rubio played in a lot of games during the COVID period when key players were out, usually on both teams.

When JBB put two point guards on the floor together the results were often amazingly good. He’s starting to try that for brief periods with Garland and Rondo. We’ll see how that works out over the next 24 games.

Also, how will it work out next year to have Garland and Sexton on the court together with three bigs? Two guards who can both get dribble penetration and force defensive help, leaving a big man open for a lob or a bounce pass. They can take turns initiating the offense, or let whoever has the slowest defender run the middle pick-and-roll while the other spots up for a 3.

Same with Garland and LeVert, who has very good numbers running the P&R. If JBB can get everybody to buy in to their roles and put the right pieces together next year this could be a top 10 scoring team IMO.

I'm just going to say that starting "dual combo guards" is my bete noire. Look that one up, you fuckers. I just absolutely hate it.

I do see it was different when you have a clear starter as point guard, who then perhaps plays with the 3rd or 4th guard in a different role on occasion. But in that starting lineup, you need to have more clearly defined roles. It never, ever lasts if you don't.

 

[foucault87]

I'm just going to say that starting "dual combo guards" is my bete noire. Look that one up, you fuckers. I just absolutely hate it.

I do see it was different when you have a clear starter as point guard, who then perhaps plays with the 3rd or 4th guard in a different role on occasion. But in that starting lineup, you need to have more clearly defined roles. It never, ever lasts if you don't.

Hear me out...what if we do...3 point guards