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I was looking at how various 5-man combinations have done so far and was struck by how effective Garland and Rubio were when they played together. The numbers represent points per 100 possessions.
Here is how units with Garland, Rubio, and the listed players have fared:
Mark, Mobley, JA +52.4 (78 possessions)
Cedi, Mobley, Love +13.6 (72)
Cedi, Mobley, JA +49.8 (52)
Cedi, Windler, Mobley +25.3 (47)
Wade, Mark, Love +39.4 (42)
Cedi, Love, JA +31.0 (41)
Cedi, Mark, Love +74.6 (29)
Okoro, Love, JA +79.3 (29)
Wade, Mark, JA +43.6 (24)
Okoro, Mobley, JA +10.6 (22)
Wade, Mobley, JA +9.5 (21)
Sexton, Mobley, JA -88.3 (20)
OK, putting Garland, Rubio, and Sexton on the floor together was a disaster. Rubio is not a small forward.
There were only a couple of Garland/Rubio units that were negative against the 11 listed above that were positive, in some cases, wildly positive.
cleaningtheglass.com ranks the top four most used Cavaliers units against the rest of the league.
1. Garland/Okoro/Markkanen/Mobley/Allen +12.3 in 397 possessions (72nd percentile)
2. Garland/Okoro/Wade/Mobley/Allen +19.3 in 218 possessions (85th percentile)
3. Garland/Stevens/Markkanen/Mobley/Allen +13.5 in 176 possessions (77th percentile)
4. Garland/Sexton/Markkanen/Mobley/Allen +2.1 in 140 possessions (45th percentile)
That last unit could be the starting lineup next season.
The fact that the 2nd most used 5-man unit includes Wade and the 3rd most used unit includes Stevens shows just how much injuries have impacted the Cavs this year. Assuming everybody is healthy coming out of the break I expect Wade and Stevens to get very little playing time from here on out.
Looking at these numbers makes me wonder just how much Rubio’s injury affected the Cavs’ season. Some of those Garland/Rubio units were absolutely destroying the opposition. I mean like 50-80 points per 100 possessions. I get that the sample sizes were small; less than half a game in most cases. But considering the unit of Garland, Rubio, Marky, Mobley, and Allen was outscoring opponents by 52 points is pretty mind blowing, and that’s based on 72 possessions.
How much has Rubio’s injury hurt the Cavs? Maybe not at all; the Cavs have a winning percentage of 58.8% in games Rubio played and 62.5% in games he did not. But Rubio played in a lot of games during the COVID period when key players were out, usually on both teams.
When JBB put two point guards on the floor together the results were often amazingly good. He’s starting to try that for brief periods with Garland and Rondo. We’ll see how that works out over the next 24 games.
Also, how will it work out next year to have Garland and Sexton on the court together with three bigs? Two guards who can both get dribble penetration and force defensive help, leaving a big man open for a lob or a bounce pass. They can take turns initiating the offense, or let whoever has the slowest defender run the middle pick-and-roll while the other spots up for a 3.
Same with Garland and LeVert, who has very good numbers running the P&R. If JBB can get everybody to buy in to their roles and put the right pieces together next year this could be a top 10 scoring team IMO.
Here is how units with Garland, Rubio, and the listed players have fared:
Mark, Mobley, JA +52.4 (78 possessions)
Cedi, Mobley, Love +13.6 (72)
Cedi, Mobley, JA +49.8 (52)
Cedi, Windler, Mobley +25.3 (47)
Wade, Mark, Love +39.4 (42)
Cedi, Love, JA +31.0 (41)
Cedi, Mark, Love +74.6 (29)
Okoro, Love, JA +79.3 (29)
Wade, Mark, JA +43.6 (24)
Okoro, Mobley, JA +10.6 (22)
Wade, Mobley, JA +9.5 (21)
Sexton, Mobley, JA -88.3 (20)
OK, putting Garland, Rubio, and Sexton on the floor together was a disaster. Rubio is not a small forward.
There were only a couple of Garland/Rubio units that were negative against the 11 listed above that were positive, in some cases, wildly positive.
cleaningtheglass.com ranks the top four most used Cavaliers units against the rest of the league.
1. Garland/Okoro/Markkanen/Mobley/Allen +12.3 in 397 possessions (72nd percentile)
2. Garland/Okoro/Wade/Mobley/Allen +19.3 in 218 possessions (85th percentile)
3. Garland/Stevens/Markkanen/Mobley/Allen +13.5 in 176 possessions (77th percentile)
4. Garland/Sexton/Markkanen/Mobley/Allen +2.1 in 140 possessions (45th percentile)
That last unit could be the starting lineup next season.
The fact that the 2nd most used 5-man unit includes Wade and the 3rd most used unit includes Stevens shows just how much injuries have impacted the Cavs this year. Assuming everybody is healthy coming out of the break I expect Wade and Stevens to get very little playing time from here on out.
Looking at these numbers makes me wonder just how much Rubio’s injury affected the Cavs’ season. Some of those Garland/Rubio units were absolutely destroying the opposition. I mean like 50-80 points per 100 possessions. I get that the sample sizes were small; less than half a game in most cases. But considering the unit of Garland, Rubio, Marky, Mobley, and Allen was outscoring opponents by 52 points is pretty mind blowing, and that’s based on 72 possessions.
How much has Rubio’s injury hurt the Cavs? Maybe not at all; the Cavs have a winning percentage of 58.8% in games Rubio played and 62.5% in games he did not. But Rubio played in a lot of games during the COVID period when key players were out, usually on both teams.
When JBB put two point guards on the floor together the results were often amazingly good. He’s starting to try that for brief periods with Garland and Rondo. We’ll see how that works out over the next 24 games.
Also, how will it work out next year to have Garland and Sexton on the court together with three bigs? Two guards who can both get dribble penetration and force defensive help, leaving a big man open for a lob or a bounce pass. They can take turns initiating the offense, or let whoever has the slowest defender run the middle pick-and-roll while the other spots up for a 3.
Same with Garland and LeVert, who has very good numbers running the P&R. If JBB can get everybody to buy in to their roles and put the right pieces together next year this could be a top 10 scoring team IMO.