With all of the youngsters, I am for keeping Bieber and Civale this year. It is not like we are get a haul for either of them. Division sucks but we are in 1st. A 10-12 game winning streak in the second half can change a lot of perceptions.
Even if we trade neither of them we are going to run into the innings cap issues this year. Unless Triston comes back and is healthy the rest of the year we are screwed either way by the time the playoffs come. If we somehow do make the playoffs we aren't getting very far with this lineup, Quantrill and Plesac destructing and being useless, and the rest of our rotation outside of Bieber and Civale having caps. As far as getting a pitcher back I think we can get a rookie like a Brandon Williamson thrown in who is struggling or a triple A guy who may be ready for promotion. In a tight race another team might not want to bring them up and risk multiple bad first starts.
I know you used the word "like" to describe the acquisition of Brandon Williamson. It goes without saying that it must be understood that the Reds and specifically Williamson may not be the only 'possible' trade partner.... But, tbh.. he'd be an appropriate part of a return from the Reds.. The Reds, as a clear competitor in the NL Central, are clearly in need of an addition or "anchor type" starter and have a couple of interesting guys in addition to this "add in". Guys like Cam Collier, Christian Encarnacion-Strand, Levi Stoudt and their two minor league back stops (Tanner Logan and Matheu Nelson) could all be part of a larger deal... with this many "interesting guys".. the return to the Reds doesn't necessarily have to be Shane Bieber...
It's middle of the rotation. I like Civale a lot but if this season is a wash anyways and next year he is in the same position as Bieber is now which is where the Guardians usually trade the guy why not just do it now and get max returns? I'm sure there are a few teams that see Civale's increase in velocity along with 2 extra years of control and think he can be a 1 or 2. I think he nets even more than Bieber if they are both traded this year. He's just had health issues every year and can't be relied on.
Again, we're assuming that no SP/SP prospects will be returned in any deals. Historically that's just not accurate. There are other lower profile SP like Blackburn, Montgomery and a few others that could effectively pitch in the back of the rotation and eat innings. I'd guess there is enough prospect capital to acquire someone like that too. The innings limits for our young pitchers will only be an issue if they allow it to be. It has nothing to do with trading Bieber and/or Civale.
For me anyway, the issue with trading Kluber when they did is the exact same reason they shouldn't wait to deal Bieber. If they would have traded Kluber the season prior the return would have been enormous. Clase was a good get, but imagine the realistic idea of not having an issue with power in the OF right now. Maybe it would have set us up with a C that could actually hit too which would have saved us from years of an offensive black hole in the position. Point being, it's deeper than just who we got. Who we didn't get needs to be considered as well. Lindor is another example. If they do the same f'n thing with Bieber(they kinda already have) then it will have been short sighted and stupid. Selling off our prospects to get a good player or 2 would have likely given us a better short term chance, but certainly would have hurt us in the long run.
It wouldn't surprise me at all if teams interested in acquiring a SP from Cleveland are more interested in Civale than Bieber. Civale is pitching better, looks to have better stuff, has 1 more year of control and they probably think it would require less to get him.
I'll stick with what I said middle of the rotation. At least on the Guardians. If all Guardians starters qualified Civale would actually be 25th. Triston would be 7th. As far as rookies with much more team control and potential Bibee would be 26th and Logan Allen would be 28th. Now tell me where Civale ends up at the end of the season regardless of what team he's on. That he's doing so well this year in his limited starts is exactly why we should trade him. Civale is our 5th pitcher next year if we keep him. I'd gladly trade our 5th pitcher for a haul. Do you actually think what he's done in 9 games is sustainable?
Bieber has the pedigree. Look, between Bieber & Civale I'm all for trading a pitcher that will accumulate the best return
I think you are being too optimistic about our rookies. Success is very rarely linear for players their first couple years. If Bieber is traded before next year, Civale is likely penciled in to start the year as the #2 in the rotation. He may get passed buy some of the young guys as the year goes on, but the FO would have him start the year near the top of the rotation.
Hey, please buy my car. It ran well in the past, if you put the radio on loud enough you won't hear all the jangling.