Trade Deadline // 2023

[440]

I think you are being too optimistic about our rookies. Success is very rarely linear for players their first couple years. If Bieber is traded before next year, Civale is likely penciled in to start the year as the #2 in the rotation. He may get passed buy some of the young guys as the year goes on, but the FO would have him start the year near the top of the rotation.

If we trade Bieber and Civale, what is our rotation for next year?

• McKenzie - this is assuming he makes it back in 2023 and avoids surgery, which is a huge assumption
• Bibee - 70 innings pitched in the majors
• Allen - 62 innings pitched in the majors
• Williams - 24 innings pitched in the majors
• Quantrill - big wildcard that has a chance of being non-tendered this offseason

Depth (or lack there of)

• Trade Return? - any team trading for Bieber or Civale is in win now mode, so the return will likely be a worse pitcher in 2024 than either of them
• Cantillo - Never pitched in the MLB and has injury history
• Morris - Has never ever ever been healthy
• Gaddis/Battenfield/etc - AAAA filler

I probably am being too optimistic but I think some people are being way too optimistic about Civale too. This is his 5th year and he's never thrown more than 125 innings. Those options are about right but I'd also add in Curry, possibly Burns and Espino later in the year, plus whatever pitchers are traded to us. If that still isn't enough they can deal from a surplus of middle infielders. They could also sign a vet. There are plenty of options available.

 

[CDAV45]

I'll stick with what I said middle of the rotation. At least on the Guardians. If all Guardians starters qualified Civale would actually be 25th. Triston would be 7th. As far as rookies with much more team control and potential Bibee would be 26th and Logan Allen would be 28th. Now tell me where Civale ends up at the end of the season regardless of what team he's on. That he's doing so well this year in his limited starts is exactly why we should trade him. Civale is our 5th pitcher next year if we keep him. I'd gladly trade our 5th pitcher for a haul. Do you actually think what he's done in 9 games is sustainable?

If he remains healthy then yes, I think what he's doing is easily sustainable. I think it was CATS that stated the only issue Civale has had is staying healthy and I second that. No, I don't view him as an ace, but he's a valuable SP when healthy. His injuries have been weird ones too. Nothing arm related that I recall. There was a glute injury and a couple of core injuries I think.

 

[Damage]

Hey, please buy my car. It ran well in the past, if you put the radio on loud enough you won't hear all the jangling.

Oh forgot to mention I have a history of selling junky cars to other people.

Bieber is junk? Weird

 

[CDAV45]

Bieber has the pedigree. Look, between Bieber & Civale I'm all for trading a pitcher that will accumulate the best return

Bieber does have the pedigree for sure, but how much will that be weighed vs their current performances and their cost? It will be interesting and if they manned up and got a haul for each of them then come 2025 this could quite possibly be the best team in MLB. If they don't trade either of them then we'll be relying on a bunch of luck instead of our own talent.

 

[440]

If he remains healthy then yes, I think what he's doing is easily sustainable. I think it was CATS that stated the only issue Civale has had is staying healthy and I second that. No, I don't view him as an ace, but he's a valuable SP when healthy. His injuries have been weird ones too. Nothing arm related that I recall. There was a glute injury and a couple of core injuries I think.

With the control he has left if other teams think the same then he should be the best pitcher available by far if the White Sox actually aren't trading Cease. The return would be massive.

 

[33Y0]

I'll stick with what I said middle of the rotation. At least on the Guardians. If all Guardians starters qualified Civale would actually be 25th. Triston would be 7th. As far as rookies with much more team control and potential Bibee would be 26th and Logan Allen would be 28th. Now tell me where Civale ends up at the end of the season regardless of what team he's on. That he's doing so well this year in his limited starts is exactly why we should trade him. Civale is our 5th pitcher next year if we keep him. I'd gladly trade our 5th pitcher for a haul. Do you actually think what he's done in 9 games is sustainable?

Comparing Triston to Civale this year is slightly disingenuous considering Stix threw a whopping 10 innings this year as opposed to Civale's 52.2, but I digress...

When Civale has been healthy, he's been above average. Keyword, when healthy, but last year his FIP was 3.87 (still above average) and this year it's 3.62. Even if he regresses a little and it ends up being a number similar to last year, it's still above average and more than just a fifth starter. Again, by no means am I saying he's an ace, but over the last two years when he's been healthy, it HAS been sustainable.

Heck, even let's look under the hood a little more on Civale...
76th percentile in MLB in Hard Hit %
66th percentile in xERA/xwOBA
72nd percentile in xSLG
88th percentile in Barrel %
93rd percentile in fastball spin
96th percentile in curveball spin
61st percentile in chase rate

 

[Damage]

Bieber does have the pedigree for sure, but how much will that be weighed vs their current performances and their cost? It will be interesting and if they manned up and got a haul for each of them then come 2025 this could quite possibly be the best team in MLB. If they don't trade either of them then we'll be relying on a bunch of luck instead of our own talent.

I'd look at the market availability as much as I'm looking at the decreased production.

Who are the other SP alternatives: Giolito who is a FA after this year? Rodriguez who can opt out of his contract after this year? Cease possibly but his numbers have also dipped.

 

[CDAV45]

I'd look at the market availability as much as I'm looking at the decreased production.

Who are the other SP alternatives: Giolito who is a FA after this year? Rodriguez who can opt out of his contract after this year? Cease possibly but his numbers have also dipped.

Agree 100% and that's what I've been telling the good folks over at the BTV site who think they can get Bieber for a pittance. The market determines worth and right now said market is huge with few good choices. That drives up value.

 

[CDAV45]

Comparing Triston to Civale this year is slightly disingenuous considering Stix threw a whopping 10 innings this year as opposed to Civale's 52.2, but I digress...

When Civale has been healthy, he's been above average. Keyword, when healthy, but last year his FIP was 3.87 (still above average) and this year it's 3.62. Even if he regresses a little and it ends up being a number similar to last year, it's still above average and more than just a fifth starter. Again, by no means am I saying he's an ace, but over the last two years when he's been healthy, it HAS been sustainable.

Heck, even let's look under the hood a little more on Civale...
76th percentile in MLB in Hard Hit %
66th percentile in xERA/xwOBA
72nd percentile in xSLG
88th percentile in Barrel %
93rd percentile in fastball spin
96th percentile in curveball spin
61st percentile in chase rate

This^

 

[440]

Comparing Triston to Civale this year is slightly disingenuous considering Stix threw a whopping 10 innings this year as opposed to Civale's 52.2, but I digress...

When Civale has been healthy, he's been above average. Keyword, when healthy, but last year his FIP was 3.87 (still above average) and this year it's 3.62. Even if he regresses a little and it ends up being a number similar to last year, it's still above average and more than just a fifth starter. Again, by no means am I saying he's an ace, but over the last two years when he's been healthy, it HAS been sustainable.

Heck, even let's look under the hood a little more on Civale...
76th percentile in MLB in Hard Hit %
66th percentile in xERA/xwOBA
72nd percentile in xSLG
88th percentile in Barrel %
93rd percentile in fastball spin
96th percentile in curveball spin
61st percentile in chase rate

I do think he's a good pitcher when healthy and that's exactly why I hope we trade him. I think the Guardians could get a lot this year but if next year comes around and he has a down year or is injured around the deadline we won't get much. If we have the choice of him netting us a haul in this barren pitcher's market where we might not even make the playoffs I think we should take it.

 

[xmasbuck]

Hey, please buy my car. It ran well in the past, if you put the radio on loud enough you won't hear all the jangling.

Oh forgot to mention I have a history of selling junky cars to other people.

Of course one car starts every time. The other is a civale

 

[Damage]

Agree 100% and that's what I've been telling the good folks over at the BTV site who think they can get Bieber for a pittance. The market determines worth and right now said market is huge with few good choices. That drives up value.

Precisely. 2023 is a sellers market given availability

 

[KluberSociety]

Bieber is junk? Weird

Relative to what he was, yes. But look at the last established pitchers we've traded to other teams:
Clevinger
Bauer
Carrasco
Kluber

The joke was on the buyer in all except Cincinnati's case and Bauer was shopped for more obvious reasons.

The Cleveland FO seems to know their pitchers pretty well, and other teams will probably respond by hanging up the phone.

Sure, ask, see what we can get. But we should be setting our own valuation and just dumping guys for nickels on the dollar like we did Benson and Jones and Miller.

 

[sportscoach]

To me, Bieber isn't dealt unless we get a need back that's helps us now...

I'd still price out SPs like Blackburn on bad teams... Blackburn and Civale, career wise have been very similar when healthy...

 

[Gson]

To me, Bieber isn't dealt unless we get a need back that's helps us now...

I'd still price out SPs like Blackburn on bad teams... Blackburn and Civale, career wise have been very similar when healthy...

should have stopped the first sentence after "back"..