Draft stock: Highest rises, biggest slides - Chad Ford
Highest risers
Derrick Williams, F, Arizona Wildcats
7/1/10 Top 100 Rank: 26
3/1/11 Top 100 Rank: 4
We just did an in-depth update on Williams last week, but his stunning rise warrants even more words of praise. This is a guy who was considered a B-list prospect, a tweener, not an elite athlete and part of a dying program, but this season he's been absolutely terrific. This past week, Williams struggled a bit in losses to the UCLA Bruins and USC Trojans, but he's still considered one of the top prospects in this year's draft.
Jordan Hamilton, F, Texas Longhorns
7/1/10 Top 100 Rank: 28
3/1/11 Top 100 Rank: 9
Unlike Williams, Hamilton has always been considered an elite prospect. But last year's stinker of a freshman season -- when Hamilton couldn't find a shot he didn't like -- has receded a bit into the background. He still lets lots of shots fly, but his discipline this season as a scorer has given scouts the belief that he's matured to the point that he could contribute in the NBA. That is to say, scouts believed that until the last few weeks, during which Hamilton has shot a combined 15-for-58 from the field in Texas' three losses. If the old Hamilton we saw during his freshman season is back, we could see his stock slide back to where he began.
Jimmer Fredette, PG, BYU Cougars
7/1/10 Top 100 Rank: 36
3/1/11 Top 100 Rank: 15
Fredette began the season as a bubble first-rounder. He flirted with the NBA draft last year and couldn't get anyone to bite. They complained he was too small and that he lacked explosiveness. He's still small. He's still not the world's greatest athlete. But what Fredette has done this season is remarkable. Not only is he a serious candidate for player of the year, but he's proved that he can get his shot off against anyone, in any situation. His 23-point, nine-assist game on national TV against the San Diego State Aztecs on Saturday was the icing on the cake. The competition was ranked No. 4 in the country, the atmosphere was electric, the crowd was hostile and the Aztecs did everything they could to disrupt Fredette. Not only did Fredette play well, but more importantly, he got BYU its 26th win of the season and a possible No. 1 seed in the tournament. NBA teams want winners, and, bottom line, Fredette is a winner.
Markieff Morris, PF, Kansas Jayhawks
7/1/10 Top 100 Rank: 58
3/1/11 Top 100 Rank: 22
Morris was considered a borderline second-round prospect coming into the season. His brother, Marcus, was supposed to be the real NBA prospect. But over the course of the season, some NBA scouts have come to believe that Markieff may actually be better than his brother. He's not quite the scorer Marcus is, but he's bigger, a better rebounder and shot-blocker, and he's improved dramatically on offense this year.
Tyler Zeller, C, North Carolina Tar Heels
7/1/10 Top 100 Rank: 88
3/1/11 Top 100 Rank: 28
Zeller was one of the highest risers of anyone on the board this season. Coming into the season, scouts saw him as a marginal prospect at best. Now? While there is still some difference of opinion among scouts, some have Zeller ranked as a late lottery pick. Others in the mid-to-late first round. A few have him in the second, but the growing consensus is that he goes in the first if he comes out. There aren't many centers in this year's draft and Zeller is one of the best.
Biggest sliders
Harrison Barnes, F, North Carolina Tar Heels
7/1/10 Top 100 Rank: 1
3/1/11 Top 100 Rank: 7
Barnes' saga has been well documented. He came into the season as a consensus No. 1 pick in the draft. Some scouts went as far as to compare him to Kobe Bryant. His current comparison? Marvin Williams. Ouch. Some scouts still hold out hope that Barnes will break out of his shell and reclaim his spot atop the draft board, but with every game it looks more and more like we'll have to wait another year to see that Barnes.
Josh Selby, G, Kansas Jayhawks
7/1/10 Top 100 Rank: 6
3/1/11 Top 100 Rank: 19
Selby has struggled all year. First, it was a result of his NCAA suspension. Then he dealt with injuries. Then questions surfaced about how he fit in coach Bill Self's system. Whatever the problem is for Selby, scouts no longer see him as a lock for the lottery, let alone the top six of the draft. Selby most likely will be better in the NBA, as he hasn't had a lot of chances to do his thing at Kansas. But with each passing mediocre game, you have to ask whether we just had him overrated.
Jeff Taylor, G/F, Vanderbilt Commodores
7/1/10 Top 100 Rank: 15
3/1/11 Top 100 Rank: 40
Taylor has caught NBA scouts' eyes for years thanks to his elite athleticism. This was the year he was supposed to break out and show a more complete game. It hasn't happened. Taylor's numbers are basically static across the board. He has shot the ball better, but most scouts still feel he's a year away.
Elias Harris, F, Gonzaga Bulldogs
7/1/10 Top 100 Rank: 21
3/1/11 Top 100 Rank: 63
Harris, most likely, would've been a first-round pick had he declared after his freshman year. Scouts were wowed by his maturity and versatile game as a freshman. His sophomore season, however, has been a bit of a disaster, and his production is down in every category. While he's still a solid prospect, he's become the poster child for why you should declare for the draft while your stock is hot.
Rodney Williams, F, Minnesota Golden Gophers
7/1/10 Top 100 Rank: 22
3/1/11 Top 100 Rank: 66
He's a phenomenal athlete. But at some point, Williams is going to have to show us he's more than that. Williams has become a lockdown defender when he wants to be. But the offensive part of his game is still very, very shaky, as is made evident by his 12.27 player efficiency rating. A 6.6 points per game average isn't going to get you drafted unless you're 7-foot-2.