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2019 Draft Prospects Thread

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AZ_ said:
LVE putting up those testing numbers at his size makes this comparison nearly irrelevant, IMO.
Click to expand...

While I do agree, I'm just pointing out that Kirven, as a late round pick, has the athletic and linebacker skills to have a great impact on a team.

The fact that most places seem to think he'll be there in the 5th round is crazy to me. His production and athletic ability should put him in day 2 conversations, IMO.
 
For those who are interested, Football Outsiders posted their QBASE projections for the 2019 crop (all QBs in Scouts Inc.'s top 100 overall players). The QBASE model was created by Andrew Healy, who is now a senior strategist in the player personnel department for the Browns. The model projects Murray and Haskins as the two best available QBs in this year's draft but is tepid with their long-term projections.

https://www.footballoutsiders.com/stat-analysis/2019/qbase-2019
 
NorthCoastBias said:
For those who are interested, Football Outsiders posted their QBASE projections for the 2019 crop (all QBs in Scouts Inc.'s top 100 overall players). The QBASE model was created by Andrew Healy, who is now a senior strategist in the player personnel department for the Browns. The model projects Murray and Haskins as the two best available QBs in this year's draft but is tepid with their long-term projections.

https://www.footballoutsiders.com/stat-analysis/2019/qbase-2019
Click to expand...

I remember last year when I wasn't on board with Baker being the top QB and then seeing the qbase for 2018 and thought "well shit..maybe he won't be that bad" :chuckle:
 
To follow up on the QBASE post, I thought it would be fun to organize all the QBs Football Outsiders has projected since this is now the fifth year of the model (first rounders in bold), which projects out the QB's passing efficiency in years three through five of their career according to Football Outsiders' Defense-adjusted Yards Above Replacement (DYAR) metric. FO then projects out the QB's chances of falling into one of the following four categories: Elite (>2500 DYAR), Upper Tier (1500-2500 DYAR), Adequate Starter (500-1499 DYAR), Bust (< 500 DYAR).

Baker Mayfield (1480)
Marcus Mariota (1275)
Jared Goff (1211)
Brett Hundley (936)
Lamar Jackson (656)
Patrick Mahomes (656)
Josh Rosen (623)
Kyler Murray (595)
Dwayne Haskins (527)
Mitch Trubisky (435)
Dak Prescott (421)
Joshua Dobbs (419)
Sam Darnold (412)
Ryan Finley (398)
Jameis Winston (378)
Mason Rudolph (343)
Davis Webb (286)
Luke Faulk (277)
Carson Wentz (274)
Kyle Lauletta (273)
Drew Lock (271)
Daniel Jones (263)
Deshaun Watson (261)
Paxton Lynch (104)
Brad Kayaa (6)
DeShone Kizer (-30)
Jarrett Stidham (-45)
Josh Allen (-83)
Sean Mannion (-109)
Will Grier (-151)
Nathan Peterman (-245)
Bryce Petty (-292)
Connor Cook (-301)
Christian Hackenberg (-414)
Garrett Grayson (-427)
 
I actually kind of like Grier as a prospect but fuck lol
 
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NorthCoastBias said:
To follow up on the QBASE post, I thought it would be fun to organize all the QBs Football Outsiders has projected since this is now the fifth year of the model (first rounders in bold), which projects out the QB's passing efficiency in years three through five of their career according to Football Outsiders' Defense-adjusted Yards Above Replacement (DYAR) metric. FO then projects out the QB's chances of falling into one of the following four categories: Elite (>2500 DYAR), Upper Tier (1500-2500 DYAR), Adequate Starter (500-1499 DYAR), Bust (< 500 DYAR).

Baker Mayfield (1480)
Marcus Mariota (1275)
Jared Goff (1211)
Brett Hundley (936)
Lamar Jackson (656)
Patrick Mahomes (656)
Josh Rosen (623)
Kyler Murray (595)
Dwayne Haskins (527)
Mitch Trubisky (435)
Dak Prescott (421)
Joshua Dobbs (419)
Sam Darnold (412)
Ryan Finley (398)
Jameis Winston (378)
Mason Rudolph (343)
Davis Webb (286)
Luke Faulk (277)
Carson Wentz (274)
Kyle Lauletta (273)
Drew Lock (271)
Daniel Jones (263)
Deshaun Watson (261)
Paxton Lynch (104)
Brad Kayaa (6)
DeShone Kizer (-30)
Jarrett Stidham (-45)
Josh Allen (-83)
Sean Mannion (-109)
Will Grier (-151)
Nathan Peterman (-245)
Bryce Petty (-292)
Connor Cook (-301)
Christian Hackenberg (-414)
Garrett Grayson (-427)
Click to expand...

Mahomes as an adequate starter?
Winston and Trubisky as outright busts??

Sheesh.
 
AZ_ said:
LVE putting up those testing numbers at his size makes this comparison nearly irrelevant, IMO.
Click to expand...

I think context is important. LVE was drafted 19th overall because he is a tremendous athlete at the combine and an imposing physical specimen, leading to great tackling numbers and strong analytics numbers against the pass. He is now in the All Pro discussion every year.

Nobody is saying Ben Burr-Kirven is a first round linebacker. The conversation started with a statement that he looks like a fifth rounder. This guy is one of the fastest, highest jumping, and most agile linebackers in the 2019 combine while putting up staggering tackle numbers for an above average Washington defense.

In my mind, that adds up to being undervalued if someone claims he is a day three pick.
 
NorthCoastBias said:
For those who are interested, Football Outsiders posted their QBASE projections for the 2019 crop (all QBs in Scouts Inc.'s top 100 overall players). The QBASE model was created by Andrew Healy, who is now a senior strategist in the player personnel department for the Browns. The model projects Murray and Haskins as the two best available QBs in this year's draft but is tepid with their long-term projections.

https://www.footballoutsiders.com/stat-analysis/2019/qbase-2019
Click to expand...
FYI: QBASE is similar to PER in basketball. Basically, it cannot account for a lot of stats before 2010ish, so as a result, it places a heavy weight on how much time a QB has played as a starter as well as including a metric for scouting consensus.

My guess is the Browns are using something more advanced. The 538 guys have a projection system that, at least I would guess, is closer to what the Browns use in combination with traditional scouting.
 
Ohio said:
Gotta say, it's weird that the draft isn't the Browns' Super Bowl this year. And not even having a 1st round pick takes it to another level. I can just watch the thing for shits & giggles now.
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I know it is weird. One of my good friends is a Bengals fan, we were talking the draft over some beers last night and he was naming prospects and I am like not up on these guys. In the past I was so dialed in first round talent and fits and where you think guys go, but now with no pick, it’s interesting. The only downside is we have to almost pay attention to the back end of the 1st round in case we do trade up for someone. Part of me thinks Dorsey will try if a guy is there he likes, plus the fact you get that 5th year on the contract.
 
The other part I like about this draft and our team, is we can go BPA but we can actually focus on getting guys that fit our scheme more so then pure talent. While in theory all teams do that, we can really focus on more win now / older 5 year college guys who can come in and play. The high ceiling but need development guys are less important now for us as with less open roster spots and how young we are, we need cheap talent that can step in and play on day 1. I also would like to see if move to draft capital until year.
 
Wouldn't mind drafting Jachai Polite in the 2nd or 3rd. Has a bad combine but the tape tells a different story. Would be a very good situational rusher to spell Garrett.
 
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