To follow up on the QBASE post, I thought it would be fun to organize all the QBs Football Outsiders has projected since this is now the fifth year of the model (first rounders in bold), which projects out the QB's passing efficiency in years three through five of their career according to Football Outsiders'
Defense-adjusted Yards Above Replacement (DYAR) metric. FO then projects out the QB's chances of falling into one of the following four categories: Elite (>2500 DYAR), Upper Tier (1500-2500 DYAR), Adequate Starter (500-1499 DYAR), Bust (< 500 DYAR).
Baker Mayfield (1480)
Marcus Mariota (1275)
Jared Goff (1211)
Brett Hundley (936)
Lamar Jackson (656)
Patrick Mahomes (656)
Josh Rosen (623)
Kyler Murray (595)
Dwayne Haskins (527)
Mitch Trubisky (435)
Dak Prescott (421)
Joshua Dobbs (419)
Sam Darnold (412)
Ryan Finley (398)
Jameis Winston (378)
Mason Rudolph (343)
Davis Webb (286)
Luke Faulk (277)
Carson Wentz (274)
Kyle Lauletta (273)
Drew Lock (271)
Daniel Jones (263)
Deshaun Watson (261)
Paxton Lynch (104)
Brad Kayaa (6)
DeShone Kizer (-30)
Jarrett Stidham (-45)
Josh Allen (-83)
Sean Mannion (-109)
Will Grier (-151)
Nathan Peterman (-245)
Bryce Petty (-292)
Connor Cook (-301)
Christian Hackenberg (-414)
Garrett Grayson (-427)