I probably won't update this until after the season but a few guys had new data load this AM. This (lottery) is sorted by the aggregate mock data hoopshype puts together. Guys with a "15" mock rank are generally considered 1st round picks, guys with a "30" mock rank are generally considered second round picks (spot checking mock draft resources).
You can see a giant crater forming in the middle of the lottery.
Just for some context here......picks 4-9 is the "which GM is gonna get fired for thinking one of these guys will pan out?" zone. Purple and blue highlight weaknesses relative to historical data.
Just 8% of the top VORP players from each draft (2011-2018) fell below .750 in POS DIFF. Currently Reddish, Langford, Little, Johnson all miss that mark.....Garland, in a small sample size, is near it. All 5 are considered rather consensus top 9 picks. This calculation also hates Okpala and Porter Jr.
The Median All-Star profile is pinned to the top to give you an idea where players might fall comparatively.
Only 3/17 All-Star players had a GS/100/ADJ of less than -2.00.
Only 3/17 All-Star players had a POSS DIFF of less than .900.
12/17 All-Star players (71%) were above both -2.00 (ADJ), .900 (DIFF).
4/17 All-Star players (23%) were above one of -2.00 (ADJ), .900 (DIFF).
1/17 All-Star players (6%) was below both (Middleton, -6.00 ADJ, .520 DIFF).
Middleton is an absolutely crazy outlier relative to all the other All-Stars.
So if you see guys that are -2 or worse (ADJ), or under .900 (DIFF)......possession data says it's more unlikely that player can be an All-Star. Can it still happen? Sure but it's a much lower success rate.
That pegs these 1st round players (13) as possibly falling in that -2.00 (ADJ), .900 (DIFF) zone.
Zion, Ja, Hayes, NAW, Clarke, Thybulle, Williams, Fernando, Okeke, Washington, Ponds, Porter and Bassey.
Hunter, Bol (small sample)... just misses it.
Those are just kind of some bench marks to see how realistic a jump is for some players. The data can swing pretty drastically at the end of the season and probably 1/3rd of the players in that zone will fall out.....out of the updated data players (showing a NET CH. in the game score), you see that White made a huge jump from just 2 games......he went from a mid to early second round pick to a late 1st over the weekend. So these numbers will look very different given the quality of opponents and pressure all these guys will face during the tourney.