Jan 4 Update: College freshmen and international men of mystery dominate the Top 10 of our Big Board. The highest-rated upperclassmen are UConn point guard Kemba Walker, North Carolina power forward John Henson, Arizona small forward Derrick Williams and Kansas power forward Marcus Morris.
Who's the best? Three of the four (Walker, Williams and Morris) are having big, big seasons. But of the group, Henson got the most votes, because he has the most upside. He's got the sort of length and athleticism that NBA teams covet. Walker is an undersized, shoot-first point guard, and Williams and Morris don't have traditional positions. So despite their terrific production, most of the scouts I spoke with had Henson rated as the top non-freshman in the U.S.
Dec 23 Update: Every year there is so much draft talk about the battle between potential and production. NBA teams, in a perfect world, would draft players that have both, and preferably when they are still young.
Think about the majority of top picks each year. Derrick Rose, John Wall, Blake Griffin, Tyreke Evans, Michael Beasley, Kevin Durant, Greg Oden -- all those guys had great potential, to be sure, but they also put up big numbers and had great success in college.
Then consider some other draft picks, guys like DeMar DeRozan, Austin Daye and Xavier Henry -- all super talents who were not quite the production monsters those other guys were. Consequently, they fell out of the top-six range of the draft, though were still drafted high because of their youth and upside.
So what player in this draft stands out as a guy already producing but still flaunts big-time potential? Look no further than last season's freshman of the year in the Pac-10, Arizona's Derrick Williams, who's looking to play his way into the lottery.
Click here for David Thorpe's full blog entry
Nov. 30 Update: Williams comes into the week with a whopping 45.63 PER -- the highest PER of any college player in the country. It has been well-earned.
Williams, the Pac-10 Freshman of the Year last season, is off to a terrific sophomore campaign. His numbers are simply stunning: 21 ppg in just 24.5 mpg. He's shooting 78 percent from the field and 78 percent from 3-point range (7-for-9).
He clearly worked on his game over the summer. Not only does he look more athletic; he has increased the range on his jumper and is confident putting the ball on the floor and driving to the basket. Williams already has made more 3-pointers six games into the season than he did all of last season.
His first real test was against Kansas on Saturday. KU threw three future pros -- Marcus Morris, Markieff Morris and Thomas Robinson -- at Williams and he still managed 27 points and eight boards (six of them offensive) against the Jayhawks. While NBA scouts liked Williams' potential at the start of the season, they are now referring to him as a lock for the first round and a potential lottery pick.
Williams' "tweener" status may limit his ceiling a bit. He's a bit undersized to play the 4, and while he's showing emerging perimeter skills, he's still not considered a pure 3 either. A few scouts have compared him to the Sixers' Thaddeus Young -- but Young never produced like this at the college level.
Nov 29 Update: Williams may not of been one of the most hyped recruits in the country, but he was the best freshman in the Pac-10 last season, averaging 15.7 points per game and 7.1 rebounds per game. Williams doesn't have any one attribute that stands out. He's just solid across the board.
He has a high basketball IQ, can play both inside and outside and brings some intangibles to the court. If he were a better athlete and a few inches taller, he'd be a likely lottery pick. As it stands right now, he's sitting on the first-round bubble.
April 1 Update: Williams was a surprise Pac 10 Freshman of the Year. He was a terrific scorer for the Wildcats and showed he could be effective both insider and outside. A potential first-round pick if he continues to improve his game.
