Collin Sexton | The Young Bull

[Dshuks]

It's a little unfair to compare Sexton's effect on the team to Bennet's, yes if you look at advanced stats Bennett had a more positive effect on his Cav's in his rookie year but he only played about 12 minutes a game. Bennett had 663 minutes played in entire the 2013-2014 season, Sexton already has 1163.

If Bennett played the same amount of minutes as Sexton has in his rookie year his advanced stats would be much worse.

Sexton's regular stat's are all massively better though. Sexton's FG % is a good deal higher despite being a guard ( Bennet's was sub 40 despite being a big), his 3p % is way higher, and his efg% is higher, as is his ppg. (even in per 36) . I really don't see how one can say Sexton is a worse rookie than Bennett.

You put any player drafted this year past the 8th pick on this team and they would not be doing much better if at all than Sexton.

 

[cavsfever]

Right. The thing that was so striking about Bennett is that he was a #1 pick who couldn't play the game sufficiently well to even get on the court for one of the worst teams in the NBA. Who cares about his advanced stats. Sexton is much better, although that's not saying much.

 

[Dshuks]

Right. The thing that was so striking about Bennett is that he was a #1 pick who couldn't play the game sufficiently well to even get on the court for one of the worst teams in the NBA. Who cares about his advanced stats. Sexton is much better, although that's not saying much.

The 2013-2014 Cavs was also a much better team than this year's squad, even though they weren't great either. Kyrie, Dion, a young Tristain, CJ Miles, and even a somewhat healthy Andy V were all much better surrounding parts than what Sexton has around him now.

 

[CBBI]

Happy birthday Collin!

May all your "he's only 19" dreams turn into "he's only 20" dreams.

 

[inliner311]

Sexton is really putting up similar numbers to Dion in his rookie season. I think Dion showed more flashes because Byron was better about managing minutes in the flow of the game and Byron was a better coach at developing guards than Drew is. I feel like Byron would allow Kyrie and Dion to stay in the game if they were playing well then adjust everyone's minutes accordingly. Also Byron's system was centered around guard play, Kyrie and Dion were basically the only ball handlers. They had alot of spot up shooters to work with.

I do think Sexton will develop better habits than Dion and Kyrie because he has had to defer so much early on. I just hope we can balance out the roster at the deadline and get a roster to move forward with. We just currently have too many players with no future with the team but who also have trade value, it's getting in the way of developing our young players.

 

[The Human Q-Tip]

Sexton is really putting up similar numbers to Dion in his rookie season. I think Dion showed more flashes because Byron was better about managing minutes in the flow of the game and Byron was a better coach at developing guards than Drew is. I feel like Byron would allow Kyrie and Dion to stay in the game if they were playing well then adjust everyone's minutes accordingly. Also Byron's system was centered around guard play, Kyrie and Dion were basically the only ball handlers. They had alot of spot up shooters to work with.

I do think Sexton will develop better habits than Dion and Kyrie because he has had to defer so much early on. I just hope we can balance out the roster at the deadline and get a roster to move forward with. We just currently have too many players with no future with the team but who also have trade value, it's getting in the way of developing our young players.

Dion was selfish. And dumb.

 

[inliner311]

Dion was selfish. And dumb.

I don't disagree with this. My response was because someone said that Sexton wasn't as good as Dion. Which I disagree with since Sexton is putting up similar numbers to Dion's rookie season. Sexton is more raw but Dion basically never developed further while he was in a Cavs uniform.

 

[TyGuy]

I don't disagree with this. My response was because someone said that Sexton wasn't as good as Dion. Which I disagree with since Sexton is putting up similar numbers to Dion's rookie season. Sexton is more raw but Dion basically never developed further while he was in a Cavs uniform.

I remember before we drafted Sexton he was the one guy I really wanted to stay clear of because he reminded me so much of Dion.

Comparing their numbers and they are eerily similar...
Dion is coming out ahead as the better playmaker, which is quite frightening. Dion was getting a higher volume of assists per possession and less turnovers. Dion also has the slight edge in scoring efficiency and a lead in scoring volume. Collin has a slight lead in rebounding and Dion has the edge in steals.

They are more similar than they are not. They both also have the penchant for taking a million long twos and mid rangers. Although Dion has a much bigger lead in three point attempt rate (.144 < .243)

They also both struggled mightily in finishing (left hand drill). It's a bit frightening how similar these two guys are. Collin has a very long way to go if he is to become an impact player. Collin frankly has been worse than Dion when we factor in advanced stats.

As @CBBI said, the best thing going for him is that he's only 19!!!!

Edit: He's only 20!!!!!!!

 

[TyGuy]

Dion was selfish. And dumb.

Sexton certainly has a better attitude and is younger. So hopefully those two things carry him.

 

[I'mWithDan]

Sexton certainly has a better attitude and is younger. So hopefully those two things carry him.

Is a better attitude Dion worth the #8 pick?

In the pantheon of #8 picks, I would argue it is.....when just assessing projected outcomes.

http://www.basketballinsiders.com/h...-pick/history-of-the-nba-draft-pick-number-8/

Also, if Dion had a bit better attitude and was more coachable, he could have been an even better player too.

IMO Dion could be the 4th best player on a good team. For picking a guy in the late lottery, that's not exactly a draft miss for me. I think Sexton's ceiling is higher than that but we'll see.

 

[TyGuy]

Is a better attitude Dion worth the #8 pick?

In the pantheon of #8 picks, I would argue it is.....when just assessing projected outcomes.

http://www.basketballinsiders.com/h...-pick/history-of-the-nba-draft-pick-number-8/

Also, if Dion had a bit better attitude and was more coachable, he could have been an even better player too.

IMO Dion could be the 4th best player on a good team. For picking a guy in the late lottery, that's not exactly a draft miss for me. I think Sexton's ceiling is higher than that but we'll see.

Is it really lack of a good attitude that keeps Dion from being effective? Or is he just not all that talented?

A smallish guard that isn't a good shooter, playmaker or finisher isn't really all that talented for an nba guard.

Also, I wouldn't focus so much on historical 8th picks as much as I would look at 8-13 range historically. You will find that plenty of good rolepayers and even stars have been picked in that range. So it's mainly been a collective failure of whoever holds that 8th pick passing on superior players.

 

[I'mWithDan]

Is it really lack of a good attitude that keeps Dion from being effective? Or is he just not all that talented?

A smallish guard that isn't a good shooter, playmaker or finisher isn't really all that talented for an nba guard.

Also, I wouldn't focus so much on historical 8th picks as much as I would look at 8-13 range historically. You will find that plenty of good rolepayers and even stars have been picked in that range. SO it's mainly been a collective failure of whoever holds that 8th pick passing on superior players.

I don't think that is necessarily the case.

A band of draft picks will always produce a subset of good players.

Since 2000, All-Stars in the lottery, outside of the top 7 (picks 8-14):

#9 Drummond
#9 Kemba
#11 Klay
#9 Hayward
#10 George
#9 DeRozen
#10 Lopez
#9 Noah
#10 Bynum
#9 Iggy
#9 Amare
#10 Caron Butler
#10 Joe Johnson

So in 20 years, there was (1) difference making player taken 8-14......George.

There were (2) other 3rd / 4th best players on a title team (Klay, Iggy).

Mind you, that was 133 draft picks over those slots during that period of time. So less than a 10% chance for even a one year All-Star. Less than a 1% chance for a franchise type player.

I think a lot of people just are not realistic at all. 8th pick is the breaking point in the lottery. 7 and above, there's a really nice track record of talent. 8-14 is a black hole.

 

[TyGuy]

I don't think that is necessarily the case.

A band of draft picks will always produce a subset of good players.

Since 2000, All-Stars in the lottery, outside of the top 7 (picks 8-14):

#9 Drummond
#9 Kemba
#11 Klay
#9 Hayward
#10 George
#9 DeRozen
#10 Lopez
#9 Noah
#10 Bynum
#9 Iggy
#9 Amare
#10 Caron Butler
#10 Joe Johnson

So in 20 years, there was (1) difference making player taken 8-14......George.

There were (2) other 3rd / 4th best players on a title team (Klay, Iggy).

Mind you, that was 133 draft picks over those slots during that period of time. So less than a 10% chance for even a one year All-Star.

I think a lot of people just are not realistic at all. 8th pick is the breaking point in the lottery. 7 and above, there's a really nice track record of talent. 8-14 is a black hole.

Well, we will have to disagree then. A lot of people make the point about how historically poor the #8 pick is. Using it as if there was just no talent available there, but in reality there have been plenty of good players available that were just passed on.

It depends on what your idea of a difference maker is because there are plenty of net positive players there including several perennial all stars.

I don't know how you can say you cant hope for much more than Dion or Sexton when just looking at the list you provided.

There is nothing wrong with picking a very good roleplayer with the 8th pick by the way. There is one available there in the vast majority of drafts.

Some notable recent guys picked in that range are Sabonis (pick 11 in 2016) Donovan Mitchell (13th pick 2017) Devin Booker (2015 13th pick) Myles Turner (2015 11th pick) Steven Adams (2013 12th Pick).

There are other good players as well that I haven't mentioned.

 

[I'mWithDan]

Well, we will have to disagree then. A lot of people make the point about how historically poor the #8 pick is. Using it as if there was just no talent available there, but in reality there have been plenty of good players available that were just passed on.

It depends on what your idea of a difference maker is because there are plenty of net positive players there including several perennial all stars.

I don't know how you can say you cant hope for much more than Dion or Sexton when just looking at the list you provided.

There is nothing wrong with picking a very good roleplayer with the 8th pick by the way. There is one available there in the vast majority of drafts.

How do you use the term "plenty" seeing the data above?

I'm not saying you can't hope for more than Dion or Sexton......anyone can hope for whatever they want.....the data just says it is a shot in the dark outside the top 7.

Will players leak out of those slots? Sure. Can anyone claim they have a system for success in a 10% success game? Hell no.

I was pointing out how unrealistic people are with the NBA draft. Picks outside of the top 7 are generally worthless when you are assessing team building potential, across a cross section of time. Every now and then a team gets really lucky......but most just get role players or guys who are out of the league in 2-4 years.

 

[TyGuy]

How do you use the term "plenty" seeing the data above?

I'm not saying you can't hope for more than Dion or Sexton......anyone can hope for whatever they want.....the data just says it is a shot in the dark outside the top 7.

Will players leak out of those slots? Sure. Can anyone claim they have a system for success in a 10% success game? Hell no.

I was pointing out how unrealistic people are with the NBA draft. Picks outside of the top 7 are generally worthless when you are assessing team building potential, across a cross section of time. Every now and then a team gets really lucky......but most just get role players or guys who are out of the league in 2-4 years.

The player don't need to have made all star teams to be good players though. I don't think that should be the qualifier. I listed more good players there in that range that haven't made all star teams. You have really high end impact guys like Sabonis and Adams that weren't even on your list. Then you have some solid role players in Taureen Prince recently picked there and possible future all stars in Booker, Turner, Mitchell that were again absent from your list. Hell, if we expand the range to 15 now you have Giannis and Kawhi.

My argument is you can get a good player at #8 every year. Maybe not an all star, but a good player. It just so happens that historically whoever has the 8th pick has tends to fuck it up.