JJ Hickson: AKA "4 TIMES THE SHYTTTTTTTTT"

[CleveRocks]

Re: JJ Hickson: AKA "Egg Fart"

Empty stats or not, JJ is playing a lot better than I expected at center. If anybody in the forum expected JJ to put up these numbers at this position after his first few weeks at PF, please raise your hand.. I think it will be an empty room. The team still blows, but I see bright spots. Sessions is getting to the stripe as if he were Dwayne Wade, and if he can continue to do that without getting hurt, then I am happy with him as a point guard and Daniel as our back up.

I am still puzzling about what to think of JJ's performance inside. I don't know if this is growing up or just evidence that he is more undersized center than athletic power forward, and I am not sure if I could tell you where to go with that. If Scott believes he will only rebound this well as a center then maybe you trade him while his numbers are awesome, or maybe you try to find Rasheed Wallace II to pair him with. Its discovery either way and we don't need to be in a particular hurry. As for what pick would I need to trade him straight up (no player returning), for me clearly it has to be a lottery pick, preferably a top 5 after the balls fall. If I did not think I was going to have a pick, I personally would trade him for Sullinger or Williams, because I think those guys will be a better citizens, or for Canter, because he is physically a true center. But it isn't a long list, and thats not too bad considering where we took him.

I am sure someone will say I am overvaluing our assets. But that is my opinion.

 

[KI4MVP]

Re: JJ Hickson: AKA "Egg Fart"

I don't think his stats have all that much to do with changing positions. It's all about him now doing the things Byron wanted him to do earlier in the season. He's starting to figure it all out, and as long as he keeps that up, I would expect similar numbers if we move him back to the 4.

And how can anyone call these numbers "empty stats". Are you forgetting that we've won 3 of the last 5 games, including wins over the Lakers and Knicks? JJ is a big reason for that.

 

[DougHeil]

Re: JJ Hickson: AKA "Egg Fart"

The JJ of last night and the JJ for quite a few recent games is the same JJ I want for every game. If somehow he can turn into that JJ, and keep improving, then NO; I don't trade him for any pick in any draft. He's always had scary athleticism and scary upside. He's young. Since I am rebuilding, what better young kid to rebuild with? To think otherwise is damn scary thinking.

 

[Bob Loblaw]

Re: JJ Hickson: AKA "Egg Fart"

JJ has been doing a very good job for almost 2 months now. He has been giving the effort and improving steadily. If games like last night were to become the norm, he'd be an All-Star. I'll take the 15.8 points 11.8 rebounds he has been averaging in the last 20 games. His per 48 rebounding numbers in that time are pretty ridiculous - 17.4. He's going to make mistakes, but if he keeps working hard he'll keep improving.

 

[Lee]

Re: JJ Hickson: AKA "Egg Fart"

I said it before, I think JJ is really a center. He does better trying to defend a big center like Dwight Howard than Athletic pf's. He is better at boxing out bigger men than quicker men. That is why he is rebounding better as a center. Also, he has an ahtletic around the rim advantage on offense over most centers in the league. I am not saying he is the center of the future, but it seems to me its a position he is more comfortable playing.

 

[Maximus]

Re: JJ Hickson: AKA "Egg Fart"

We still have time to evaluate JJ, my fear is that he is Drew Gooden with worse hands. You will see flashes of brilliance where he plays like an Allstar...and then stretches where he appears to be thinking about peanut butter. The great news is that for guys like him, you can usually get people to overpay if you decide to move him.

There are 6 players who have played more than 1000 minutes for the Cavs this year. Here's their floor time +/-

Player +/- MINS
D. Gibson -170 1330:10
A. Parker -214 1445:15
M. Williams -284 1065:24
R. Sessions -351 1488:46
A. Jamison -355 1812:29
J. Hickson -418 1490:35

Here's last year's numbers---

Player %Mins +/-
James 74% +649
Varejao 54% +513
Parker 57% +406
M.Williams 59% +258
Ilgauskas 33% +223
West 37% +206
Jamison 20% +153
Gibson 27% +152
O'Neal 31% +96
Moon 26% +78
Hickson 42% +55

5 of the 11 players above had 70% winning percentages or higher. 4 players had 60% or higher. JJ was 38W & 40L for a 48% winning percentage when he was on the floor. Keep this in mind - HE STARTED 73 GAMES ON A TEAM THAT WON 74.4% OF THEIR GAMES. Yet his winning percentage was 48%??? That seems almost impossible to believe.


As I sad earlier, we still have time and he has been playing well of late. He's still only 22.
I want to see more consistancy down the stretch. I want see how hard he works this this offseason and what he does the first half of next season. I also want to see more of the fire and passion we saw last night. There isn't anything we can do about what's between his ears and that's what worries me most.

The jury is still out...

 

[KI4MVP]

Re: JJ Hickson: AKA "Egg Fart"

is there any site that will give a split on +/- numbers by month? Here are his on +/- the last few games

+9 W
-12 L
+2 W
-26 L
+2 W
+6 L
+2 L

The numbers didn't looks so good before that. Of the two recent poor games, I'd blame the Rockets loss in him, but not the wizards loss as I think the team as a whole is to blame for that one.

The big question is can he keep it up?

 

[The Voice]

Re: JJ Hickson: AKA "Egg Fart"

Just tell him he's playing Amar'e and Griffen every night.

 

[Matches]

Re: JJ Hickson: AKA "Egg Fart"

On what would, or wouldn't you trade JJ for, JJ's play so far already indicates that he's worth a lottery pick. He may end up starting about 50% of his games, and players drafted late there (which was discussed above) do that at only a 30% clip. So JJ's better than that, but those players also have about a 10% chance of becoming all-stars, which is slightly better than JJ's current prospects if you ask me, so...that's where I'll slot him. Thanks Gimme Some Mo for reminding us how much we overrate "lottery picks". I think we should be happy to have gotten the Clippers pick, but we should also keep in mind that if the recent past is any indication of the present, unless we move up with that pick, the chances that we get someone only as good as JJ Hickson is RIGHT NOW (not talking about potential, I'm talking about what he is NOW) is only about 55%.

On JJ, I think he's either peaked or reached 75% of his offensive peak with these performances. His two fatal flaws are his low basketball IQ and his small, rock-like hands. Someone upthread said he'd improve when we get someone who can get him the ball. Our guards were getting him the ball. He proceeded to drop it, over and over. I don't see anything that tells me he'll ever be able to reliably catch passes in traffic. He can fill in the remaining 25% of his potential with any combination of: post game refinements, improved midrage jump shot, general basketball IQ. But just because "he's young" doesn't mean that those things are necessarily going to get better with time. A lot of people make that mistake - Sasha Pavlovic didn't get any better after he turned 23. You can see how hard JJ is working in the games he plays well in -- if he can bring that nightly, he's well worth a 7th-8th overall.

 

[Chris]

Re: JJ Hickson: AKA "Egg Fart"

We still have time to evaluate JJ, my fear is that he is Drew Gooden with worse hands. You will see flashes of brilliance where he plays like an Allstar...and then stretches where he appears to be thinking about peanut butter. The great news is that for guys like him, you can usually get people to overpay if you decide to move him.

There are 6 players who have played more than 1000 minutes for the Cavs this year. Here's their floor time +/-

Player +/- MINS
D. Gibson -170 1330:10
A. Parker -214 1445:15
M. Williams -284 1065:24
R. Sessions -351 1488:46
A. Jamison -355 1812:29
J. Hickson -418 1490:35

Here's last year's numbers---

Player %Mins +/-
James 74% +649
Varejao 54% +513
Parker 57% +406
M.Williams 59% +258
Ilgauskas 33% +223
West 37% +206
Jamison 20% +153
Gibson 27% +152
O'Neal 31% +96
Moon 26% +78
Hickson 42% +55

5 of the 11 players above had 70% winning percentages or higher. 4 players had 60% or higher. JJ was 38W & 40L for a 48% winning percentage when he was on the floor. Keep this in mind - HE STARTED 73 GAMES ON A TEAM THAT WON 74.4% OF THEIR GAMES. Yet his winning percentage was 48%??? That seems almost impossible to believe.


As I sad earlier, we still have time and he has been playing well of late. He's still only 22.
I want to see more consistancy down the stretch. I want see how hard he works this this offseason and what he does the first half of next season. I also want to see more of the fire and passion we saw last night. There isn't anything we can do about what's between his ears and that's what worries me most.

The jury is still out...

Great post.

Jury is still out. Exactly what I've been saying, yet people weren't comprehending it. And if somebody is telling me we don't float JJ's name out there and see what people are offering...well, that's just damned silly.

And saying "any pick in the top 20" still means you would think about taking the 20th pick.

Correct- I already said that, and also said that with each spot the pick moves up it would increase my likelihood of taking it for Hickson. Unless of course JJ finishes the season averaging 20 and 10 which, well, isn't going to happen. I also stand by my opinion that Love would be doing nowhere near what he is on a contending team surrounded by talent (that is almost inarguable), although he would still be a coveted player.

 

[Cavatt]

Re: JJ Hickson: AKA "Egg Fart"

Empty stats are numbers that come as a result of inefficiency and lack of defense. JJ is not a great defender, but he is getting better. He is really pretty efficient around the basket, and his rebounding is real. He is a lot better now, and showing the natural ability for rebounding he had in college. The difference is that he is actually boxing out now, and playing more around the basket and boxing out. Bottom line is that JJ is developing, and he is holding his own against some good players. There was a time this year I doubted him, but that was awhile ago. Let him grow.

Looking for empty stats? Look no further than Jamison and his bad D, and chucking ways.

 

[Triumph36]

Re: JJ Hickson: AKA "Egg Fart"

unadjusted +/- is practically worthless for long periods of time. anyway, last year his apm was -9.55 and this year it's only -5.18. still terrible, but....an improvement? maybe next year he'll crack the positive digits

 

[MattyFos.]

Re: JJ Hickson: AKA "Egg Fart"

unadjusted +/- is practically worthless for long periods of time. anyway, last year his apm was -9.55 and this year it's only -5.18. still terrible, but....an improvement? maybe next year he'll crack the positive digits

Not too mention he's on a team that lost 26 straight by an average of more than 10 Pts/game.

 

[Adam]

Re: JJ Hickson: AKA "Egg Fart"

I think as long as he's putting in the effort like he is recently then hes strengths far outweigh his weaknesses. Coming into next season i think the cavs have to decide what they want him to be, see if he can achieve their aims and if not package him off at the deadline with jamison to a team in need of salery cap releif for a longer contract and young player/ 2012 loto pick. Hicksons the kind of player that GMs can sell their fanbase on to sweeten a trade that is made for more financial reasons.

 

[Jon]

Re: JJ Hickson: AKA "Egg Fart"

A developing player is a dynamic situation. You can't judge him truly by what he was doing a month ago anymore than you can fairly judge him by what he's doing right now.

JJ is playing much better the past two months. This is a good thing. Can he keep it up? Can he start taking care of some of his weaknesses along the way?

Ups and downs are a given ... the fact he's having an "up" is pretty important.

Maximus and Cavatt got right to the heart of the empty stat issue ... it's all about efficiency, defense, and doing all the little things that help your team play better. Putting up 24 & 15 doesn't mean a whole lot when your counterpart got 31 & 11; but your team being +9 when you were on the court .vs. the opponent being -11 when your counterpart was on the court means a lot. But JJ is still making a lot of mistakes and those get exposed against better teams that have their act together.

Can he clean them up? Why not? When? Who knows ....