The Dilemna
The cupboard is bare. The only guys left are restricted free agents (Josh Smith, Josh Childress, Andre Igoudala, Monta Ellis, Andris Biedrins, Nenad Krstic), guys with baggage (Ricky Davis, Kwame Brown, Shaun Livingston), or equally unintriguing role players who haven’t got snatched up for a reason. For Cavs fans, their hopes and focus are solely on James Posey.
So the question becomes do you come to the negotiating table with a fourth year for James Posey? The 31 year old guard/forward is certainly a valuable piece to a veteran team, but after making similar mistakes with older veterans in the recent past, do the Cavs bite the bullet and offer a fourth year in order to steal away a guy who would immediately log big minutes as a shooting guard/small forward for the Cavaliers?
History’s Lessons
If you believe you believe in the mantra “those who do not learn from history are doomed to repeat it”, you probably oppose going to the wall to get Posey. With contenders like Boston and New Orleans offering similar mid-level deals of the three year variety, and some suggesting the Lakers are in the mix, those teams would likely have the edge as more desirable locations to play if all things are equal. Posey would see considerable floor time here, but in what will likely be his last contract, he would no longer be playing for a contract. He’d be playing out his contract. And minutes would become much less relevant them being placed in a position to compete if the money is comparable.
The last time the Cavs splurged on role players they signed Donyell Marshall (4 years, 22 million) coming off a great year as the first reserve for the Toronto Raptors and Damon Jones (4 years 16 million) coming off a record-setting year as the 3-point marksmen for the Miami Heat. Look a little further back and you’ll find that previous Cavaliers GM John Paxson made similar (if not larger) mistakes signing Ira Newble (5 years, 15 million), and even Kevin Ollie (5 years, 15 million). Ollie was later exchanged for Eric Snow (a worse deal if that’s even possible).
The Analysis
We all know the relevant facts. What does Posey do well? Defense and shooting are his specialities. You won’t find much left from the days where he would slash through the lane (circa Denver 1999-2003). But on a team with Delonte West and Daniel Gibson and Wally Szczerbiak, what’s lacking is not outside shooting. What’s lacking is a consistent presence guarding the perimeter and knocking down open looks when they’re there. Cavs fans know all too well how painful it can be to watch players like Sasha Pavlovic or even Wally Szczerbiak deliver such inconsistent performances night in and night out (that’s not even mentioning their injury concerns).
Can we all except to see Posey play out a four year deal with little to no fall off in his game? The likely answer is no. Like Marshall before him, Posey is a shooter who progressed in that area as he aged. Shooting is an area that “ages” well (just ask Z), and so perhaps his stroke see little to no fall off with the open looks playing next to a guy like Lebron would afford.
If you look to Eric Snow for reference on how defense “ages”, maybe we can hope Posey’s defense would hold up. The pessimist would point out Eric Snow’s defense was based on strength and quick hands, not lateral quickness. Posey, who turns 32 in January, would be hard pressed to play a four year deal out without seeing a fall off on that end of the floor.
The Conclusion
The most likely outcome of this wait and see approach is that Danny Ferry is hesitating for a reason, probably one of the concerns highlighted above. Perhaps its a personnel issue he anticipates encountering based on the guys he intends to move. Giving Posey a four-year deal is a calculated risk, and on a team whose payroll ranks the third-highest in the NBA despite playing in the mid-sized market of Cleveland, a little financial prudence may be the “unspoken mandate” despite what we’ve seen reported about Ferry’s ability to “do what is necessary to build a winner”. Ultimately, my prediction, and common sense would tell you that the only way Posey lands anywhere except the Celtics is with more money or more years.
As the current roster is built, next year’s lineup will likely see Sasha Pavlovic man the shooting guard spot, with Daniel Gibson seeing considerable time on the floor as a 2 when Delonte is running the point. Devin Brown is all but gone, and Wally Szczerbiak will probably be moved by the trading deadline as the most valuable trading chip (from an expiring deal standpoint) that the Cavs have.
Bringing in Posey would be a welcome addition, but I, like many others, am opposed to offering a fourth year in any form other then a team option. The roster and the Cavs ”needs” will likely look much different after the trade deadline. A glue guy who plays solid defense may be added in a deal. Adding a fourth year for Posey on a team that is going to see dramatic upheaval before the trade deadline (not to mention before Lebron’s contract renewal) is risky, unless Ferry anticipates still having considerable minutes at the 2/3 spot because of trades that he may need to make. The Cavs may have to take on some additional bad deals just to land a star talent in a trade.
In the end, I think the Cavs willingness to go the extra mile for Posey will depend on what Ferry and the management knows that we don’t. With Szczerbiak being shopped, and possibly Pavlovic as well, having a bigger perimeter player to complement Gibson and West seems that much more desirable. I won’t be overly critical of management if they pass on James Posey. The midlevel is there every year, and I’d rather the risks that management takes have bigger potential rewards. We’ve seen this team bring in role guys year after year. This may be the season the Cavs land a legitimate second fiddle to Lebron James if they play their hand correctly and if a few things fall into place before the trade deadline. Everyone’s optimistic in the fall, but come February, it’s a buyer’s market.