Tyronn Lue has been fired

[KilgoreTrout]

He's had a great season; but he's gotta have more than one-year under his belt at this level of success. If/when that happens, then sure, I'd have no problem calling him a superstar.

He’s more of a superstar than the guy who went #1 that year...

 

[The Human Q-Tip]

If you mean in the context of the Boston trade that we made; then yes, of course -- Kyrie for Oladipo is better than what we ended up with, that's for damn sure.

No, I mean period. Certainly based on this season and moving forward.

 

[Cavatt]

There's not a chance I would take Oladipo over Kyrie Irving... You swap Oladipo onto the 2016-17 Cavs and we'd still be without a title.

VO couldn't have gone off the way Kyrie did, through consistent double-teams, past Curry and Klay -- there's just no way.

Put Oladipo on that team and we likely lose in 5 or 6. With Kyrie, we beat an historically great team in 7.

ok, and in 2017 he wasn't the difference maker and the Cavs lost. They totally negated him last year, and while he had a couple of good games, he was just not the same guys as 2016. Maybe he didn't want to go all out, I don't know. I wasn't saying I would rather have him in 2016.

Right now today I'd take Oladipo over Irving mostly due to health and defense.

 

[gourimoko]

I agree, although neither Hill nor Oladipo is really a PG. That pairing would transform our defense fundamentally, and while Oladipo doesn't have the isolation ability of Kyrie, he is still good enough to be a second option as an iso player. And both are good enough threats from long-distance that they'd keep a defense honest.

I think having Oladipo on this team would be great; but I think we're conflating and confusing a couple of concepts. For one, defense is not equivalent, with respect to an individual player, is not equivalent to offensive production. So while Oladipo might be a better defender than Kyrie, which I think goes without saying; that doesn't mean that you can field LeBron, Oladipo, Hill and once-again-injured Kevin Love and expect Oladipo to score at the same clip as Kyrie Irving.

So while Oladipo could have some higher defensive ceiling; his inability to produce those much needed points to the same degree as Irving would have lost the Cavs that series.

To compare the two playoff stats:

Kyrie Irving 2016-17:
36.9 MPG
25.2 PPG
47.5 FG% / 44.0 3P% / 87.5 FT%
.535 eFG / .574 TS%
20.1 FGA (LeBron was 21.3 FGA)
24.4 PER
4.7 APG
3.0 RPG
1.7 STL
0.6 BPG
2.3 TOV
2.2 PF
USG = 31.1%
OBPM = 4.7 / DBPM = 0.1; BPM = 4.8
VORP = 1.3
WS/48 = .201

Victor Oladipo right now:
36.3 MPG
22.3 PPG
41.7 FG% / 36.4 3P% / 73.9 FT%
.500 eFG / .542 TS%
18 FGA
18.0 PER
5.5 APG
5.3 TRB
2.3 STL
0.8 BPG
4.5 TOV
1.8 PF
USG = 32.3%
OBPM = 2.7 / DBPM = 2.3; BPM = 5.0
VORP = 0.3
WS/48 = 0.085

Oladipo is giving you +0.8 APG, +2.3 RPG, +0.6 STL, +0.2 BPG; but he's also giving up +2.2 more turnovers in equivalent minutes, which contributes to his actually higher usage than Kyrie. So given the rate of points produced off of turnovers compared to steals and the variance within these values, as well as the fact that Oladipo's assist numbers are what they are without playing next to LeBron James; I'm not sure how one could look at Oladipo in these playoffs and take that compared to what we got during our championship run from Kyrie Irving.

Would appreciate thoughts though?

 

[gourimoko]

No, I mean period. Certainly based on this season and moving forward.

See my post here:
http://realcavsfans.com/community/index.php?posts/3001617/

Given their stats; I'm just not sure how one would conclude that'd be a good swap? If you trade Kyrie for Oladipo in 2016-17, we lose the Finals.

Statistically and analytically, I just don't get it? Perhaps what we're seeing is a bit of a combination of recency bias coupled with some post-purchase rationalization?? Or maybe I'm just missing something...

But as far as I can tell, Oladipo is not better than Kyrie Irving. He's a great individual player, on a decent team, but I think we might be overvaluing Oladipo because of just how poorly the Cavs are currently playing.

FWIW, if we did end up facing a completely healthy Celtics team in the first round of these playoffs, with a healthy Kyrie and Hayward; given just how bad the Cavs are playing right now, we might have gotten swept. And again, FWIW, here's no way the Cavs defense could contain Kyrie the way they're currently containing Oladipo; we just don't have the personnel in either the backcourt or any sort of rim protection to backup our perimeter defenders -- and yet, Oladipo has been unable to capitalize due to the Cavs traps and double-teams.

And to me, that's really the big difference between these two players. One is unstoppable offensively, the other is not. Yes, Oladipo is a better defender; but I think some might be overvaluing just how impactful that difference is given the other areas of difference.

 

[gourimoko]

He’s more of a superstar than the guy who went #1 that year...

Believe me, I agree.. If you go back and look at my posts at the time, Oladipo and Porter were my two guys... I preferred Porter simply because I figured Oladipo and Irving overlapped too much. I was astonished that we passed on both to pick Bennett (just as I was astonished when we picked Dion Waiters and just as I was astonished that we picked Tristan Thompson)....

 

[Sir'Dom Pointer]

Believe me, I agree.. If you go back and look at my posts at the time, Oladipo and Porter were my two guys... I preferred Porter simply because I figured Oladipo and Irving overlapped too much. I was astonished that we passed on both to pick Bennett (just as I was astonished when we picked Dion Waiters and just as I was astonished that we picked Tristan Thompson)....

*Just as astonished when we picked Miles Bridges

 

[Ethan]

ok, and in 2017 he wasn't the difference maker and the Cavs lost. They totally negated him last year, and while he had a couple of good games, he was just not the same guys as 2016. Maybe he didn't want to go all out, I don't know. I wasn't saying I would rather have him in 2016.

Right now today I'd take Oladipo over Irving mostly due to health and defense.

KD shut off Kyries water. KD was waiting for him near the rim every time. That was the difference from 16 to 17. GS got better. VO is overrated, refs treat the guy like hes james harden when his drives.

 

[gourimoko]

ok, and in 2017 he wasn't the difference maker and the Cavs lost.

The Cavs lost because of Kevin Durant, not Kyrie Irving. Durant played a perfect Finals, and we had no answer for him. We didn't retool or respond in anyway to the Durant acquisition.

They totally negated him last year

I agree he wasn't as good as 2016-17, but, FWIW, Irving put up 29.4 PPG / 4.4 APG / 4.0 TRB on 47/42/90 (.524 eFG / .558 TS%) ... In 5 games he scored 147 points, compared to LeBron's 168 over 5 and Love's 80..

So they definitely didn't negate him. The difference was largely in the fact that there was now a 7'0 hyper-athletic, crazy long wing who could switch onto Irving, block his shot, and also help Klay/Steph whenever needed... Not that Irving couldn't isolate on Durant, but, he was being doubled and then still had to face Durant/Green/whomever at the rim.

Even with all of that, he's massively outproducing Oladipo in these playoffs, and that's going against Golden State's defense compared to Dipo going against our lol-defense..

Maybe he didn't want to go all out, I don't know. I wasn't saying I would rather have him in 2016.

I understand, and I agree ... something was definitely up with that team. I think honestly they knew they were beaten. I honestly don't think that Cavs squad believed they had a chance...

Right now today I'd take Oladipo over Irving mostly due to health and defense.

I agree Oladipo is a significantly better defender, and I agree he's definitely healthier which must be considered...

But I'm saying that if we're being objective here, I think the team we have would be better off with a player like Kyrie who can generate 30 PPG even against an historically good defense, at do so at high efficiency (considering the defense being thrown at him) rather than a player who is better defensively but can be taken largely out of the game offensively.

And believe me, I'm not saying Oladipo wouldn't be good on this team; I would love to have him compared to what we got... Seriously.... He's a great player. But, he's never once played to the level that Kyrie has over his career -- and that's why I'm hesitant to say he's now better when he has yet to actually be better than Kyrie.

 

[gourimoko]

KD shut off Kyries water. KD was waiting for him near the rim every time. That was the difference from 16 to 17. GS got better. VO is overrated, refs treat the guy like hes james harden when his drives.

Bingo .... You said it more concisely than I could; but Kevin Durant playing help defense and acting as a 7'0 rim protector really fucked Kyrie's game up... Then having Durant come at Kyrie on the opposite end in the pick-and-roll ... They did to us what we did to them in 2016-17 with Irving on Curry....

And we should have KNOWN that they were taking that route... Yet we did nothing to respond.

 

[CTownSportsFan]

I think having Oladipo on this team would be great; but I think we're conflating and confusing a couple of concepts. For one, defense is not equivalent, with respect to an individual player, is not equivalent to offensive production. So while Oladipo might be a better defender than Kyrie, which I think goes without saying; that doesn't mean that you can field LeBron, Oladipo, Hill and once-again-injured Kevin Love and expect Oladipo to score at the same clip as Kyrie Irving.

So while Oladipo could have some higher defensive ceiling; his inability to produce those much needed points to the same degree as Irving would have lost the Cavs that series.

To compare the two playoff stats:

Kyrie Irving 2016-17:
36.9 MPG
25.2 PPG
47.5 FG% / 44.0 3P% / 87.5 FT%
.535 eFG / .574 TS%
20.1 FGA (LeBron was 21.3 FGA)
24.4 PER
4.7 APG
3.0 RPG
1.7 STL
0.6 BPG
2.3 TOV
2.2 PF
USG = 31.1%
OBPM = 4.7 / DBPM = 0.1; BPM = 4.8
VORP = 1.3
WS/48 = .201

Victor Oladipo right now:
36.3 MPG
22.3 PPG
41.7 FG% / 36.4 3P% / 73.9 FT%
.500 eFG / .542 TS%
18 FGA
18.0 PER
5.5 APG
5.3 TRB
2.3 STL
0.8 BPG
4.5 TOV
1.8 PF
USG = 32.3%
OBPM = 2.7 / DBPM = 2.3; BPM = 5.0
VORP = 0.3
WS/48 = 0.085

Oladipo is giving you +0.8 APG, +2.3 RPG, +0.6 STL, +0.2 BPG; but he's also giving up +2.2 more turnovers in equivalent minutes, which contributes to his actually higher usage than Kyrie. So given the rate of points produced off of turnovers compared to steals and the variance within these values, as well as the fact that Oladipo's assist numbers are what they are without playing next to LeBron James; I'm not sure how one could look at Oladipo in these playoffs and take that compared to what we got during our championship run from Kyrie Irving.

Would appreciate thoughts though?

Basically you could plug in any all-star SG ‘s name where you have Oladipo and come to the same conclusion. Beal, McColumn, Thompson, Kawhi. Etc..

 

[gourimoko]

Basically you could plug in any all-star SG ‘s name where you have Oladipo and come to the same conclusion. Beal, McColumn, Thompson, Kawhi. Etc..

Well yeah, I agree, I think Kyrie is clearly better than 3 of those 4 players. But not Kawhi though...

Kawhi Leonard is on another level compared to Irving, IMHO. Kawhi when healthy is easily Top 5 and both a DPOY as well as MVP candidate, year after year. The guy is a beast.

 

[The Human Q-Tip]

See my post here:
http://realcavsfans.com/community/index.php?posts/3001617/

Given their stats; I'm just not sure how one would conclude that'd be a good swap? If you trade Kyrie for Oladipo in 2016-17, we lose the Finals.

I never made the 16-17 argument, so I don't know why you keep bringing it up. Also, we did lose the '16-'17 Finals with Kyrie on the team, so I don't understand the point you're trying to make.

Moreover, subbing out one set of player stats for another, at a different position, and claiming that proves what the result would have been is...not right. You know that, but for some reason are doing it anyway. Things like chemistry and fit matter, and a stud perimeter defender has relatively more value on a team like the Cavs that lacked both rim protection and even average backcourt defense.

Anyway, as I stated upthread, a Kyrie for Oladipo swap at the the beginning or end of this season meant we'd have had to have changed other elements of the team as well, and I think it is to acquire a good PG than a good SG. I also think that Oladipo's career is on more of an upward trajectory than is Kyrie's, who has now had seven seasons to prove he is willing and able to become even a adequate defender, and has not done so.

 

[LeMighty]

Bingo .... You said it more concisely than I could; but Kevin Durant playing help defense and acting as a 7'0 rim protector really fucked Kyrie's game up... Then having Durant come at Kyrie on the opposite end in the pick-and-roll ... They did to us what we did to them in 2016-17 with Irving on Curry....

And we should have KNOWN that they were taking that route... Yet we did nothing to respond.

Thats because we did not have anything to respond with. It was an uneven battle that could not have been won even with the great MJ.

 

[gourimoko]

I never made the 16-17 argument, so I don't know why you keep bringing it up. Also, we did lose the '16-'17 Finals with Kyrie on the team, so I don't understand the point you're trying to make.

It's a typo Q-Tip.. I'm referencing our championship run, which was 2015-16 -- you know, the one that we won; 2016-17 is clearly a typo if you read the posts where I'm mistakenly using the wrong year. But my bad for the confusion...

Moreover, subbing out one set of player stats for another, at a different position, and claiming that proves what the result would have been is...not right. You know that, but for some reason are doing it anyway.

I disagree with your logic here.

Oladipo and Kyrie are both combo-guards, both players play both backcourt positions. Kyrie Irving was not the Cavs point player in any of our playoff runs -- LeBron James was. Irving played the role of secondary ball-handler, and secondary-point player; which is what Oladipo would be doing on the Cavs alongside LeBron.

So the difference between Oladipo and Irving with respect to position and role is minimal at best; nor does it have really anything to do with the conversation we're actually having.

Lastly, I don't understand what you mean by "not right." Your argument is that you would trade Kyrie for Oladipo, "period." I'm pointing out why such a trade does not make sense in hindsight given their historic production.

So I really don't know what you mean... I'm pointing out that Oladipo has never produced to the level that Irving has; so if you swap these two players around, what would the projected outcome be?

Things like chemistry and fit matter, and a stud perimeter defender has relatively more value on a team like the Cavs that lacked both rim protection and even average backcourt defense.

But the Cavs backcourt defense in 2015-16 was excellent ... And our offense, generated predominantly by Kyrie was elite. Even in 2016-17 (the Finals we lost), again, Irving scored at an elite clip of 30 PPG, and the defense struggled yes, because we had no answer for Durant in the pick-and-roll -- and it wasn't just the backcourt. Durant scored on LeBron, Irving, Love, everyone, at will. Which opened up the game for Curry as well.

As far as chemistry and fit; you couldn't have a better fit than Kyrie Irving since we absolutely needed every single point he scored. Chemistry at that time was thought to be good between the players, but we have no idea how to project how Oladipo would respond to playing with James and Love, so I don't think that's worth really debating.

Anyway, as I stated upthread, a Kyrie for Oladipo swap at the the beginning or end of this season meant we'd have had to have changed other elements of the team as well, and I think it is to acquire a good PG than a good SG.

Seems like you're suggesting Oladipo and another player that we'd have gotten, somehow, would be better than Kyrie? I'm not sure who this other player would be, again, I'm directly comparing Oladipo's production against Kyrie's; not Oladipo+PG, and Kyrie+SG -- I don't think such a comparison really makes sense?

So I'm not sure why you're not willing to simply directly compare the two players given their obvious similarities at their role/position, especially given neither would play the point on the Cavs.

I also think that Oladipo's career is on more of an upward trajectory than is Kyrie's, who has now had seven seasons to prove he is willing and able to become even a adequate defender, and has not done so.

Yeah, I don't think that's true at all... If you look at Oladipo's last season playing alongside Westbrook, I think that would temper this idea that Oladipo's career trajectory is projecting him higher than Kyrie Irving.

Lastly, again, while defense is important, I think you're overvaluing the degree to which Oladipo's defense matters with respect to the gulf between him and Irving offensively... particularly given just how close the 2015-16 series was by the fourth quarter of Game 7.