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i just hope the cavs draft two guys who have distinctly different positions. For example I wouldn't want to draft Williams and Barnes. Williams is a 3/4 and I think Barnes is a solid 3, not quick enough for the 2. While Jeff Green was solid, I think OKC might have been kicking themselves for drafting him and Durant....I guess thats my point, I don't want one pick to be limited by the other one....Green and Durant are both SF. Just think if they had drafted Noah and Durant....
 
hud11 said:
i just hope the cavs draft two guys who have distinctly different positions. For example I wouldn't want to draft Williams and Barnes. Williams is a 3/4 and I think Barnes is a solid 3, not quick enough for the 2. While Jeff Green was solid, I think OKC might have been kicking themselves for drafting him and Durant....I guess thats my point, I don't want one pick to be limited by the other one....Green and Durant are both SF. Just think if they had drafted Noah and Durant....
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Barnes isnt a good enough rebounder to play the 3
 
CBB Fan25 said:
Barnes isnt a good enough rebounder to play the 3
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rebounding is not a high priority for SF. I bet the avg NBA SF averages 5-6 reb a game. I think Barnes in College is avg 5.5? I think he's fine, if thats your criteria.
 
If Barnes were averaging 5.5 rebounds in the NBA, that would make him the 10th best rebounding Small Forward in the league.
 
hud11 said:
rebounding is not a high priority for SF. I bet the avg NBA SF averages 5-6 reb a game. I think Barnes in College is avg 5.5? I think he's fine, if thats your criteria.
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5.5 translates to about 2-3 in the NBA if that
 
if anything you would think college numbers would be low considering the pace. You have to take into account the increased height i suppose. For example carlos boozer averaged 8 rpg at duke, but has a career nba average of 10.2.

but conversely KD average 11 rpg at texas but only 6.2 in the nba

wade has kept his basically identical at just over 6.

so whatever formula you have it seems hard to justify empirically
 
Using the last year in college and current NBA season:

TOP 10 REBOUNDING SMALL FORWARDS (who played in college)
Carmelo Anthony: 10 rpg in college, 7.7 rpg in the NBA (-2.3)
Kevin Durant: 11.1 rpg in college, 7.2 rpg in the NBA (-3.9)
Shawn Marion: 9.3 rpg in college, 6.6 rpg in the NBA (-2.7)
Rudy Gay: 6.4 rpg in college, 6.2 rpg in the NBA (-0.2)
Luol Deng: 6.9 rpg in college, 6.1 rpg in the NBA (-0.8)
Wilson Chandler: 6.9 rpg in college, 5.9 rpg in the NBA (-1)
Danny Granger: 8.9 rpg in college, 5.6 rpg in the NBA (-3.3)
Trevor Ariza: 6.5 rpg in college, 5.5 rpg in the NBA (-1)
Luc Richard Mbah a Moute: 6 rpg in college, 5.3 rpg in the NBA (-0.7)
Paul Pierce: 6.3 rpg in college, 6.1 rpg in the NBA (-0.2) (Had to use career averages)


This isn't sure fire proof, since its only one season and not career averages (except for Pierce), but it would appear that Small Forwards typically rebound less upon entering the NBA. Which is something you would expect. So, in one sense, CBB Fan25 is right in saying that rebounding will decrease, but the 2-3 number isn't correct. It would appear that that number is typically around 1-1.5 less rebounds.

Of course, this ignores so many factors (what was the player's role in college? What was their role in the NBA? What did they average in their careers? Who were they playing with?) that its probably not even a safe analysis.
 
Czvosec said:
Using the last year in college and current NBA season:

TOP 10 REBOUNDING SMALL FORWARDS (who played in college)
Carmelo Anthony: 10 rpg in college, 7.7 rpg in the NBA (-2.3)
Kevin Durant: 11.1 rpg in college, 7.2 rpg in the NBA (-3.9)
Shawn Marion: 9.3 rpg in college, 6.6 rpg in the NBA (-2.7)
Rudy Gay: 6.4 rpg in college, 6.2 rpg in the NBA (-0.2)
Luol Deng: 6.9 rpg in college, 6.1 rpg in the NBA (-0.8)
Wilson Chandler: 6.9 rpg in college, 5.9 rpg in the NBA (-1)
Danny Granger: 8.9 rpg in college, 5.6 rpg in the NBA (-3.3)
Trevor Ariza: 6.5 rpg in college, 5.5 rpg in the NBA (-1)
Luc Richard Mbah a Moute: 6 rpg in college, 5.3 rpg in the NBA (-0.7)
Paul Pierce: 6.3 rpg in college, 6.1 rpg in the NBA (-0.2) (Had to use career averages)


This isn't sure fire proof, since its only one season and not career averages (except for Pierce), but it would appear that Small Forwards typically rebound less upon entering the NBA. Which is something you would expect. So, in one sense, CBB Fan25 is right in saying that rebounding will decrease, but the 2-3 number isn't correct. It would appear that that number is typically around 1-1.5 less rebounds.

Of course, this ignores so many factors (what was the player's role in college? What was their role in the NBA? What did they average in their careers? Who were they playing with?) that its probably not even a safe analysis.
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Why didn't you use career averages for everybody? How did you decide which year to use for the NBA numbers, career highs or this season?
 
I think Harrison Barnes’ rebounding will transfer to the NBA. If you watch him play, he is good rebounder who hustles for them.

Some of the other SF’s in the past played a lot of PF in college so their rpg were increased. Barnes plays behind a 6’10 good rebounding PF John Henson and a 7’0 C Tyler Zeller. When he’s been on the floor he’s almost always played SF, which is probably what he'll play in the NBA. If he plays SG his rpg might go down a bit, but probably not too much.
 
MattyFos said:
Why didn't you use career averages for everybody? How did you decide which year to use for the NBA numbers, career highs or this season?
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I used their final season in college because the assumption would be that they entered the NBA having just finished their best year in school (although, it was probably too risky since, oddly enough, Mbah a Moute's rebounding numbers took a drastic hit his final year in school... which just so happened to be Kevin Love's freshman season).

The NBA numbers were this season. That was used because the original question dealt with the average number of rebounds for a small forward, a number you would expect to stay somewhat consistent regardless of the names.

I could go back and use career averages. That would still leave other factors unaccounted. For example, Shawn Marion averaged about 9.9 rebounds per game in Phoenix (which would exceed his last collegiate season). Now that he is playing in a reduced role, and he has a rebounding big playing alongside him, his rebounding number has dropped dramatically.

Honestly, there are so many factors that it's almost impossible to say that because player x averaged this many rebounds in college, then he will average this many rebounds in the NBA. The main point was that the numbers CBB Fan25 threw out there had no statistical backing, and even just a little bit of research would show those numbers to be wrong.
 
http://insider.espn.go.com/nba/blog...spn.go.com/nba/blog?name=nba_draft&id=6147962

I don't have ESPNinsider so I can't read this entire article. I guess Chad Ford has moved Derrick Williams to 4th in his top 100. If somebody could post the article I'd be grateful. It'd be a nice read and a nice addition to draft talk at RCF..

EDIT- If the article is just about Williams I guess it should go in the Derrick Williams thread
 
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