Wizards/Suns screw Magic - great DP scene

Re: Magic discussing deal for Arenas

Interesting, when I look at this trade I like it for all of the teams in terms of this year, but if there was one team that I had to pick that I think may get the worst of this (this year) it has to be Orlando.

There is no doubt in my mind this makes the Suns better. Hedo was doing less than nothing, Earl Clark doesn't see the floor, and Richardson can be adequately replaced by Carter. Throw in Pietrus and Gortat and I don't see anyway in which PHX isn't a better team.

Same with Washington. Lewis fills a need and Arenas didn't. Lewis is better than what they currently have playing the 4.

Orlando, however, will rely on whether or not Hedo finds his old form. That, to me, is the only way they come out a better team in this. I think he will, but if not, they are no better now than they were before the trade, and actually probably will end up worse with the huge drop-off in defense they will experience.

Re: Magic discussing deal for Arenas

Rich said:

They didn't have financial flexibility anyways after this off-season and last off-season. That was alreayd out the window. The Lewis contract is just as terrible as the Arenas contract, so that's a sideways move.

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My opinion is that Arenas is the worst contract in the NBA. His knees and personality have limited his career to being the biggest question mark outside of Yao Ming. Rashard Lewis was always overpaid in Orlando and has been on a downturn over the past year and a half... but comparing his production during his downturn and the void of production that is Gilbert Arenas is really a steep divide. Gilbert doesn't match with the talent in Washington, his personality doesn't match with earthlings, and his contract was a mistake one year before he actually signed it. I'm amazed Washington was able to move it without throwing in a first round pick, and the rest of the NBA should be as well.

As you've pointed out, Richardson is in a contract year just like Vince, so that's a sideways move. The only addition was the Hedo contract, but at the same time they moved the smaller Gortat contract.

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I'm with you on Richardson and Wince as a financially sideways move, but I have no doubt in my mind that Richardson will be more productive this season. He is playing for a contract and has a history of trying far harder in contract years. Wince is about ready for the glue factory, but if he checks his ego he can sneak a few more years out of his body as a spark off the bench. Hedo is just as much of a wildcard as Arenas... he has flamed out so many times, burning comeback opportunity after comeback opportunity. You are talking to a member of the Gortat Fan Club, the only other member being Ben. Unlike Hedo, he is worth that contract, and will prove it now that he is splitting time with Robin Lopez rather than praying for Dwight to get into early foul trouble.

I mean, they are in the same situation financially that they were before. The only way they were getting out of it was finding a way to move Lewis contract w/o taking on a long-term deal in return. They didn't manage to do that, so it's really no extra harm in terms of financial flexibility because they were screwed anyways. Basically, if they ahd done none of these trades the ywould still be way, way over the cap in the next two years, just like they will be now.

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The risk is in Hedo and Gilbert returning to being productive players while completely exposing their defense. The secret to beating Orlando for the past two years was to get both Howard and Gortat in foul trouble and feast on the linchpins of the half-court defense and rebounding being off the floor. Now, they are relying on Earl Clark to step it up and be a productive backup big. Might work, might not. Orlando remains the team that had the most lot lose if these wildcards don't respond well to getting moved to a contender.

Re: Magic discussing deal for Arenas

ButterMPancakes, you are one of my favorite posters here so I really feel for you.

Re: Magic discussing deal for Arenas

InBoobieWeTrust said:

As for this trade, if they were going to go make the Phoenix deal, which I actually like for them, because I like Richardson more than Vince and Hedo fits Orlando like a glove.....they should have stayed away from Gilbert Arenas. In-fact, the devastating combination of Lewis/Turkoglu at the forward spots is really what helped make that team roll.

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Good post. My only qualm with your logic is that it's 2011 (almost) and not 2009. Rashard Lewis' game has just gone into the toilet this season compared to the the last two years (even last year he took a step back from 09). His stats and his advanced metrics have dropped across the board without any decrease in minutes. He's taken steps back in virtually every single stat that's out there the last two seasons. Maybe part of it is because he's didn't get the same caliber of looks once the Magic replaced Hedo's above average playmaking skills from the 3 spot by two non-creators in Barnes in 09 and now Q-Rich this year, but Hedo or no Hedo, Lewis has been the Magic's worst starter by a wide margin according to 82games - http://www.82games.com/1011/1011ORL.HTM -- and he's been their 2nd worst rotation player overall.

It's certainly arguable that removing Lewis makes them better simply in an addition by subtraction situation.

InBoobieWeTrust said:

Arenas servers no purpose to the team at this point. They have so many scorers including Jameer Nelson that I don't see where Arenas fits. They went from nobody to being way overcrowded. Without Lewis, the spacing for that team is going to suffer immensely because of Bass and their lack of a real playmaking PG. I would try to move Nelson ASAP in a deal for a PG that can set the table and then I'd make Arenas the 6th man. Maybe NY would consider Felton for Nelson?

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I think you're sleeping on Bass a little bit. His simple rating according to 82games is a very strong +8.9 which is 2nd best on the entire Magic team. Also, according to Hoops Data, Bass is shooting 52% on shots from 16-23 feet. In fact, he's one of the best shooting big men from midrange in the entire league. Bass' 52% from 16-23 feet (on 3.3 attempts per game so not a tiny sample size) ranks him as the 4th best midrange shooting big man behind Nowitzki, Horford, and Scola. Obviously he doesn't have the same three point range as Lewis, but he's been very efficient at the wide open midrange shots he often gets during the course of the game.

As far as Arenas goes....

He hasn't been good this season. But I assume the Magic are attributing his struggles to the fact that he had difficulty adjusting to playing off the ball and sharing the ball handling duties with Wall (and to a lesser extent Hinrich). That could certainly be a problem with Nelson as well, but Nelson is a good enough shooter to play effectively off the ball (something Wall can't do yet). I'm sure the Magic would be more than happy to see Arenas play like he did last season before the gun incident where he averaged 22 and 7 while shooting 41% from the field and getting to the line 6.5 times a game. Obviously Arenas is never going to be an overly efficient player, but I think the Magic actually need a player who can play a little more selfish and demand the ball in clutch situations and either score baskets or get to the line in big spots. Now the case could certainly be made that its 2011 and not 2006 and Arenas isn't that player anymore, but that's a whole other argument lol.

Re: Magic discussing deal for Arenas

Missed a lot. ..


No, Nelson is not getting traded. Not only does Otis love the guy, but he's also the team's captain and 2nd most important player both in the court and off the court. I also HIGHLY doubt he comes off the bench.


No, I wouldn't want Jamison in any way, shape, or form.


As far as lineups, I wasn't too specific because I had to run


what I think it should be:


Nelson/Arenas/Duhon/Jwill
Jrich/Arenas/JJ
Hedo/Jrich/Qrich
Bass/Hedo/Anderson
Howard/Allen/Clark



Rotation:

Nelson+ 30 minutes
Arenas+ 30 minutes
JRich 25-30 minutes
Hedo 30+ minutes
Bass 30 minutes
Howard 35+ minutes
JJ 20 minutes
Allen 10-15 minutes
Duhon 10 minutes
garbage time for Anderson/Clark



It's going to be highly dependent on matchups. I think that if the perimeter D is struggling Jrich might not see minutes and Duhon will man the point with Arenas at SG (instead of Arenas taking backup guard spots)


JRich leaves at 6ish and Arenas comes in (1st)
Nelson comes out at around the 3 min mark for JJ, Arenas at PG
Nelson/Jrich back at around 6 in the 2nd quarter for Arenas/JJ


Similar for the 2nd half, although it's possible to ride player's hot hands or bench if they're not doing well in the 4th, so it could look different depending on games.



The good: offense could be incredible, play making has severely improved, team still has versatility to play both conventional and stretch four ball
The bad: Hedo, Arenas. . . much worse defensively as the team loses it's best team defender not named Dwight and Arenas is a downgrade defensively (in theory and history, according to HP and synergy somehow Arenas' defense has been better than Wince's while Wince's offense has been better than Arenas'). The team also has basically ruined any chance they had in re-signing Dwight and acquiring another max FA (which was possible prior to Arenas, unless he does what Hedo did and re-negotiates his contract. . . unlikely).

The ???: Jrich on a contract year, Arenas sees Otis as his mentor and really has something to prove, maybe enough talks with him has him wanting to show he can be the team's 6th man and be productive both on and off the court
Arenas knees. . . thin in the frontline.

the biggest ? to me will how much this team will defer to Howard offensively, and if this move means less touches for Howard, it's already a bad move. In theory, Howard would be shooting 6 times a game, but maybe these guys will work with SVG and know Howard's the best offensive and best defensive player in the team.


Time to wait at the airport for Hedo with a box of pizza. . .

Re: Magic discussing deal for Arenas

ButterMPancakes said:

No, Nelson is not getting traded. Not only does Otis love the guy, but he's also the team's captain and 2nd most important player both in the court and off the court. I also HIGHLY doubt he comes off the bench.

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At the press conference today, Van Gundy said that Nelson was going to start and mentioned Arenas could come off the bench.

Re: Magic discussing deal for Arenas

jerzy234 said:

At the press conference today, Van Gundy said that Nelson was going to start and mentioned Arenas could come off the bench.

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Cool, thanks. . . I'm so damn behind and stilltrying to catch up to all of this. Gotta find that press conference. Wonder how long it will take before SVG

Figured that much, Arenas is going to be this team's Jamal Crawford/Terry/Manu and it should not change. Nelson is a better defender at the PG spot and more efficient, not to mention you want Arenas to play with Howard as little as possible.

The only thing I do like is that this team can play the timeout end quarter games and have a lineup of Nelson/Arenas/JRich/Hedo/Howard for buckets.

This is definitely Otis basically not taking his chances with Free Agency and going all out, hoping for things to change. I don't think he really believed in the underachieving Wincent and Lewis' age was starting to show. Not only that, but there is also the huge possibility of some real problems in the lockerroom that could have ended badly. While I still wish they went after Iggy instead of Arenas, gotta live with it now.








Who am I kidding

Re: Magic discussing deal for Arenas

Watching the Magic post game show here.

Stan Van said flat out that Jameer Nelson will not be taken out of the starting lineup.
Nelson, Bass, and Howard are all going to be in the starting lineup. Which means one of the three of Gilbert, Hedo, or Richardson will be coming off the bench.

Stan also said Turk will be playing small forward.

I'm thinking Arenas is going to be the guy coming off the bench with the way Stan is talking right now.

Re: Magic discussing deal for Arenas

Only way I'll be able to feel good about this now is if the Magic can somehow make another trade to land a PF/C similar to Camby.

Re: Magic discussing deal for Arenas

ButterMPancakes said:

Only way I'll be able to feel good about this now is if the Magic can somehow make another trade to land a PF/C similar to Camby.

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I've got JJ Hickson in my trunk wrapped in saran wrap with orange slices to cover the smell of shittyness.

Where can we meet?

Just throw me a draft pick or something it's the holidays what the hell.

Re: Magic discussing deal for Arenas

JSS2306 said:

I've got JJ Hickson in my trunk wrapped in saran wrap with orange slices to cover the smell of shittyness.

Where can we meet?

Just throw me a draft pick or something it's the holidays what the hell.

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For Hickson?? I'll give you an authentic Adonal Foyle Jersey :chuckles:

Re: Magic discussing deal for Arenas

JSS2306 said:

I've got JJ Hickson in my trunk wrapped in saran wrap with orange slices to cover the smell of shittyness.

Where can we meet?

Just throw me a draft pick or something it's the holidays what the hell.

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Why are you trading away the cavs' after game snack, i suppose you want to give him the juice boxes too.

Re: Magic discussing deal for Arenas

The part of this trade that's been overlooked and might have the biggest impact is Brandon Bass becoming a starter. Orlando just got a lot tougher inside. Dumping Rashard Lewis basically scraps the stretch offense Orlando has run since Lewis got to town and turns the power forward-center combo into a power duo similar to Boston, LA and Utah. The big payoff could be in matching up with the Heat. I don't see how Miami is going to be able to keep Howard and Bass off the boards. By starting Bass the Magic are taking aim at Miami's biggest weakness.

Re: Magic discussing deal for Arenas

Why are people suddenly listing Earl Clark as a Center? He's a 6' 9" Small Forward, no way he's able to guard Centers.

Re: Magic discussing deal for Arenas

I see Orlando admitting they cannot compete with the Heat as they were configured. Although they started the season on fire a lot went into the tank the past month or two. If they want to keep Howard they can take a risk. Arenas was pretty good when he was motivated and had healthy knees. Moving to Orlando will help the motivation if not the knees. They will play Hedo for sure, as he fit very well with Dwight, and opens space inside for him. JRich can still ball, whereas QRich is pretty much Anthony Parker. So I think Orlando gets better (only because Lewis took two steps back this year). I hear what you are mostly saying about fewer shots for Dwight, but I think this is better shots for Dwight as both Hedo and JRich will need to be covered outside and that will open the lanes.