NBA Draft Lottery Tuesday, May 17th

[inliner311]

One thing that stands out is that Bane had four straight years of excellent to great three point shooting in college while Nesmith had only…one. Nesmith was younger and perhaps not as NBA ready and then maybe didn’t get the development opportunities with the Celtics once there.

I would say that development opportunities is a big factor with Nesmith and other players that the Celtics have taken in that range in recent history. They basically have refused to give those guys minutes to develop. Nesmith, Langford, and Yabusele were all drafted 14-16 and been given basically garbage minutes since they been drafted.

Even Terry Rozier was given fairly limited minutes his first two season. They didn't really realize what they had with him until Kyrie went down and Rozier allowed break out in the playoffs.

 

[adam81king]

Did you notice how good Garland looked playing next to Rubio this year before he went down?

I did. But that means either Garland, or that backup, is effectively playing SG, which brings up the same point of why you have Levert, Sexton and Okoro...

There are 48min available at each position (240 total per game). Where do each of those guys play if you're picking a backup PG at #14?

 

[MirORich]

I did. But that means either Garland, or that backup, is effectively playing SG, which brings up the same point of why you have Levert, Sexton and Okoro...

There are 48min available at each position (240 total per game). Where do each of those guys play if you're picking a backup PG at #14?

Okoro is nothing than a developmental player next year. His draft stock should/will mean nothing any longer. He needs to earn his way into minutes and out of DNP's.

So Okoro is not affecting my draft strategy at all.

LeVert can play some of his minutes at SF when Markannen is out of the game or when they go with more traditional or even small ball lineups.

Don't see the issue. Stack players and skills and let it all sort itself out, whether that's via just how everyone plays, trades, injuries, etc.

 

[Dr. Claw]

If the Cavs took Dyson Daniels with Ochai Agbaji staring them down still on the board I’m resigning as president of the Koby Altman boosters club.

If it's 14 and he's not picked, Agbaji is my guy. I don't care about the log jam, that will be resolved at the trade deadline. Now if Daniels is still on the board in the 2nd round, I'd be down with that pick. Potentially a backup PG.

 

[Lee]

View attachment 9652

If we win the lottery and tae Chet I will be pissed

 

[Ohioplayer00]

I really hope you are wrong on this one

I hope I am too….I just don’t see the Cavs lottery luck getting us into the top four spots

 

[InBoobieWeTrust]

My model is possession based. Agbaji played 5 more minutes than Keels per game (15% more) and played on a higher pace team.

His per game stats are better. His per possession impact is not. That is what my model values. What overall impact does a player have on a possession to possession basis and how does that impact compare to their peers.

I can do a more detailed breakdown of how someone like Keels is favored over someone like Agbaji, but this is the cliff notes explanation. Agbaji got a ton of minutes and played in a system that was advantageous to counting stats…….but what he did on a possession basis was very average relative to 10 years of prospect data.

How does Agbaji compare to Mikal Bridges in your model if you don’t mind me asking?

 

[adam81king]

Okoro is nothing than a developmental player next year. His draft stock should/will mean nothing any longer. He needs to earn his way into minutes and out of DNP's.

So Okoro is not affecting my draft strategy at all.

LeVert can play some of his minutes at SF when Markannen is out of the game or when they go with more traditional or even small ball lineups.

Don't see the issue. Stack players and skills and let it all sort itself out, whether that's via just how everyone plays, trades, injuries, etc.

Ok, let's do some math...

PG (48) - Garland (20), Sexton (10), Washington (18)
SG (48) - Levert (18), Sexton (20), Garland (10)
SF (48) - Lauri (17), Levert (12), Okoro/Wade/Stevens/Cedi (19)
PF (48) - Mobley (20), Lauri (8), Love (20)
C (48) - Jarrett Allen (30), Mobley (10), Lauri (5), Moses (3)

This hypothetical has *no one* playing more than 30mpg (this past year, Mobley played 34mpg, DG played 36mpg, JA played 32mpg, Lauri played 31mpg, Isaac played 30mpg and Caris played 30mpg with Cleveland).

These numbers break out to:
Evan 30
Darius 30
JA 30
Lauri 30
Sexton 30
Levert 30
Love 20
4 guys (Okoro/Cedi/Wade/Stevens) SHARING 19
Moses/backup C 3
Just so a backup rookie can get 18mpg...

Everyone is at, or less than (some drastically less than), their minutes last year.

 

[MirORich]

Ok, let's do some math...

PG (48) - Garland (20), Sexton (10), Washington (18)
SG (48) - Levert (18), Sexton (20), Garland (10)
SF (48) - Lauri (17), Levert (12), Okoro/Wade/Stevens/Cedi (19)
PF (48) - Mobley (20), Lauri (8), Love (20)
C (48) - Jarrett Allen (30), Mobley (10), Lauri (5), Moses (3)

This hypothetical has *no one* playing more than 30mpg (this past year, Mobley played 34mpg, DG played 36mpg, JA played 32mpg, Lauri played 31mpg, Isaac played 30mpg and Caris played 30mpg with Cleveland).

These numbers break out to:
Evan 30
Darius 30
JA 30
Lauri 30
Sexton 30
Levert 30
Love 20
4 guys (Okoro/Cedi/Wade/Stevens) SHARING 19
Moses/backup C 3
Just so a backup rookie can get 18mpg...

Everyone is at, or less than (some drastically less than), their minutes last year.

Why assume Sexton gets 30 every night? Some nights it might be 22-28 range, some it might be 26-32 range.
Same with LeVert.

For Love, this was his healthiest year in a long while. Is that likely to continue? Is he a guaranteed 20mpg guy next year? Some games it could be 14, some 22.

Why factor Cedi, Wade, Moses, or Okoro in at all? They will/may play but they're not guys that just get automatic minutes next year fro simply being on the roster. In tight games, they may play little. In blowouts, they may play more.

As we know, injuries will happen. Rets games will happen. Some Covid games will probably happen as well.

You can do the same math with the bigs. You can do the same math with drafting a traditional SF because that will push some LeVert minutes back to SG only and some Markannen minutes back to PF.

Draft and acquire talented players and while some consistency in a 9 or 10 man rotation is necessary, no one but Garland, Mobley, and Allen are guaranteed huge minutes every game.

You're either way overthinking this or giving too much consideration to anyone not named Garland/Mobley/Allen in terms of what position we should or should not draft.

The only position that there is a strong argument for not drafting at 14 is C or traditional PF. But backup PG, combo guard, traditional SG, wing, big wing, and. even SF/small ball PF should all be on the table if the are the BPA and have translatable NBA skills like good athleticism, high effort, especially + shotmaking/playmaking

 

[Douglar]

I did. But that means either Garland, or that backup, is effectively playing SG, which brings up the same point of why you have Levert, Sexton and Okoro...

And Wade and Cedi and Stevens and Rondo…

The team is desperate for an SG that can play at a high level on both ends of the floor. The team is desperate for a guard that can run the team when Garland sits & hit from deep when playing next to him.

Cavs need to find a way to take that pile of slightly below average abilty guards and SF’s and turn it into something. Lots ways to do that.

It’s always best if you can do it though player development, but Sexton and Okoro are close to being known quantities.

Caris LeVert doesnt seem like the answer if the question is “How do we win games?”

Maybe the team can find an NBA ready impact player in the draft, but that can be hard at #14.

Maybe the answer is combining the drafted player with guys on the roster like they did to get K-love. A lot easier with a lottery pick than #14, but could happen.

Maybe Rick Rubio comes back. Don’t know.

It’s going to be an exciting off season.

 

[cliffdawg]

First I’m still a Okoro fan ,the guy is only 21 for god sake, but with Sexton and LeVert and potential 14 pick being a swing man…..I would love to know what is Okoro value around the league, could we fetch a late first round pick for him, not interested in using him to move up just for a few spots, like to think his value is higher then that…….

 

[cliffdawg]

Until we’re not picking 1st , dreaming of what Jabbar Smith would look on this team has me drooling, I thinking he would LM on steroids for this team……..

 

[inliner311]

I watched Agbaji highlights and I can see the fascination with him. His 3 point shots seem to be from NBA range since he seems to lay back from the college line. I couldn't tell how good his handles are because he seems to be able to use his athleticism to cut slash to the basket. I think he could be one of those players that has just a mature body and game that shines in college after refining it for 4 years. The question for me is how much of an advantage his athleticism gives him if any in the NBA.

His shooting will definitely translate. All the lob dunks in his highlights probably won't happen in the NBA, he just won't have that advantage at 6'5 against NBA speed and length. I'm not sure how his slashing translates or if he has the handles to drive in traffic in the NBA.

 

[I'mWithDan]

Out of curiosity and not really relevant to current conversations how did your data evaluate Desmond Bane vs Aaron Nesmith? Both were in the same draft, both older prospects but Bane and his shooting has taken off in the nba while Nesmith has floundered.

I was trying to get a feel for how college shooting translates to nba and these two really stuck out and puzzled me

It liked both of them overall.

In terms of shooting production, I'll have to dig up the post I did on it but predicting shooting improvement is really hard for every position expect bigs.

I did some regression stuff on projecting it based on college stats and guards and wings were all over the map but the bigs had near predictive r-values.

I think I still have the charts saved......I'll just have to figure out what spreadsheet they are in.

 

[Cavatt]

I watched Agbaji highlights and I can see the fascination with him. His 3 point shots seem to be from NBA range since he seems to lay back from the college line. I couldn't tell how good his handles are because he seems to be able to use his athleticism to cut slash to the basket. I think he could be one of those players that has just a mature body and game that shines in college after refining it for 4 years. The question for me is how much of an advantage his athleticism gives him if any in the NBA.

His shooting will definitely translate. All the lob dunks in his highlights probably won't happen in the NBA, he just won't have that advantage at 6'5 against NBA speed and length. I'm not sure how his slashing translates or if he has the handles to drive in traffic in the NBA.

His ability to shoot off the dribble is what stands out the most to me. He looks like he has excellent balance. Can go up from catching the ball and still shoot. His finishing around the basket seems to indicate that balance as well.

I think he would work on this team. Totally agree the handle is pretty questionable. Will that work in the NBA?