Pat Riley Karma Safari / DWade to sign with Chicago

[gourimoko]

So, neither scenario likely happens. Both less that 5%.

But, I have to admit, you're in that magic zone right now. Drunk enough that you have an irrational view of yourself, but not so drunk that you've lost your mojo.

All of the facts are reasonable for Wade or Durant. It filters down the line of reasonable assumptions. But in the end... you say... "Holy shit, it might happen" when the compounded odds are just so low.

I'm liking this discussion, however, because I'm high on Championship Cheeba myself.

Yeah, neither of these possibilities are likely -- at all... by any stretch of the imagination.

However, with Wade, we saw what happened last year between Wade and Riley, and we saw how his dad and Gabrielle were pimping the Cavs option hard. We saw him at the Finals games this year, and pimping the Cavs on national television last year.

Now, this year, I guess the assumption is that Riley will just hand Wade $15M a year over 3 years with a smile on his face? I dunno why that's the consensus opinion, but, there's no reason to believe this is true. Riley is a notorious back-stabbing motherfucker; so, why would he change his behavior now?

Then there's the difficulty of actually getting a trade accomplished, working with Riley. I think there's a few reasons to believe this could get done.

#1) Gilbert and Arison got a deal done for James; remember, James was traded to Miami, even after "The Letter" -- he didn't sign there as a free agent. Cavs, when faced with the ultimate loss of a franchise player, still got a deal done for picks. I could see the same thing happening in this instance, owner to owner, with the league likely making sure it didn't get nasty.

#2) Chicago, Los Angeles, and New York will likely offer Wade $15M annually; just for veteran presence and leadership, and for the Knicks, Wade makes them a contender from a novice fan's standpoint. So, the Heat don't have the same bargaining position they did last year when no team really had the cap space to sign Wade, and therefore will likely not have the best financial deal available to Wade.

Wade has more leverage this year, than he did last year.

#3) Wade coming to Cleveland gives him a guaranteed Finals appearance, and likely at least 1 more ring. Going anywhere else, include Miami, means retiring with what he has.

#4) No other contender has enough space to sign him. San Antonio doesn't have the space, and Wade would never sign with Golden State in a million years. OKC, if they re-up with Durant, won't have it, and that leaves no other options except Cleveland and potentially New York (lolol).

---- Durant ----

As far as Durant's concerned... the logic there is simple; how many more years does he risk injury?

To minimize the potential risk completely, he'd want to sign a max deal now, losing roughly $50 million dollars in the process.

To mitigate that loss, he can sign a 1+1 year deal with OKC, become a free agent next season, and then sign wherever he wants, only losing the earning potential of +2.5% annual raises. IMHO, this makes the most sense and is very likely what he's going to do.

However, Golden State will not have a 10Y-vet max cap slot available next off season; but substantially less than that since Curry will have a max cap hold of $32.4M + ~$35M for Klay+Draymond, 11 vet min slots @ 1.4M, leaving ~$26.4M in usable cap space. Durant's max salary next offseason will be $37.8M, so GSW will be $11.4M short, and that's with a bench full of vet min players.. Unless Steph and Durant are taking $5M/yr paycuts, it's not happening.

So, if Durant wants to sign with GSW, he has to go this year -- he can't go next year. The most optimal deal he can sign is a 2+1 deal with Golden State, get early Bird rights after year 2, opt-out in year 3, and then sign for the max -- but if he's injured in those 2 years... well, that'd be a shame.

So via this logic, going to Golden State carries significant risk and loss of pay; however...

Durant can sign-and-trade his way to Cleveland. Cleveland would get his Bird Rights, and Durant could sign for the max. He'd have to play an additional year in Cleveland under the $94M cap, but he'd also have an additional year of guaranteed salary (2+1 vs 3+1), so, it somewhat mitigates the loss due to injury but could cost him significant income depending upon how much BRI continues to grow over time.

Since this is getting to be a long post, I'll sum it up this way..

Let's remove health from the equation, and let's assume Durant wants to leave OKC thereby sacrificing maximum earning potential.

That leaves 3 scenarios:

1) BRI/Salary cap contracts massively; in essence, the cap grows by only 6.5% between 2017-18 and 2018-19.

In this case, Durant loses $14.7M over 7 years by signing with Cleveland instead of Golden State. In the first two years, the loss is $0, but he takes a $10M hit in Year 3, and the raises begin to stack from there.

2) BRI/Salary cap contracts moderately; in essence, 2017-18 represents the peak of growth, and we'll see the rate of growth diminish over time gradually.

In this case, Durant would lose ~$1.6M over 7 years by signing with Cleveland; or in other words, an insignificant amount of money, relatively speaking.

3) BRI/Salary cap growth stops completely. Durant's loss would be around $17M over 7 years by signing with Cleveland.

 

[gourimoko]

I am curious if Wade coming here would increase or decrease the odds that we'd shop Kevin Love.

Decrease, significantly.

Wade needs a floor spacer just as much as James, if not more so. Having Wade on the wings means you really don't need anyone from the 1-4. So the only reason you'd trade Love is if an absolute ideal trade scenario came along.

 

[gourimoko]

LOL certain people want to rebuke a Cleveland-Chicago-Boston 3-team trade that ends with Love on Boston and Butler in Cleveland, yet people are falling all over themselves trying to convince each other that Wade to Cleveland is a realistic possibility.

I still think Love/Butler with the Celtics acting as a third team makes tons of sense; had we lost the Finals.

The only reason I think that deal doesn't get done, is because James would rather keep Love than trade him for Jimmy Butler - and that's just a hunch.

Riley will pay his franchise player whatever he wants

Whoah... I don't think any part of that statement is true, and it's not Riley's decision, to be perfectly honest.

vs. risk losing him to the Cavs.

We thought the same thing about Dan Gilbert facilitating a S&T for James to the Heat. NBA just doesn't work that way.

If taking a MASSIVE pay cut to play in Cleveland is even a realistic possibility, which I don't think is. Somebody will pay the guy if Miami won't.

Right, he can get more money elsewhere, but we shouldn't ignore the possibility he wants another ring. It's not like stars don't take pay cuts.

I also think you're ignoring the fact that Wade has, since 2010, taken a pay cut to compete on the best team he could.

He's not looking for max money, he just wants a respectable deal.

It's the worst pipe dream yet.

Calling it a pipe dream, I think, ignores the very real possibility of Wade leaving Miami. That team is entering a rebuild. Anything could happen.

Is it likely?

No. Not at all... but it's pretty far from a pipe dream coming off winning a title.

Think about it... what happens if Wade and Riley can't come to terms?

 

[godfather]

I'm going on a hunch that Wade wants to get as many, if not more rings than Kobe Bryant.

I know he likes and respects Kobe. But I don't think people realize how competitive he is too. The dude hates losing, and gets fed up with these one-and-done scenarios in the playoffs.

Not quite the same this season, but they were out in the second round. Year before they weren't even in it.

Also, Bosh might never play again. Do you think he really wants to spend the rest of his career on a team going no where, just because he is loyal?

 

[Rick Astley]

1) Durant would look like a bitch joining the guys who bounced him after being up 3-1.

That's what Iguodala did on a different circumstance . He's not a superstar but GS is a team of bitches after all. Durant joining them would make 0 splashes in that category.

 

[gourimoko]

I'm going on a hunch that Wade wants to get as many, if not more rings than Kobe Bryant.

I know he likes and respects Kobe. But I don't think people realize how competitive he is too. The dude hates losing, and gets fed up with these one-and-done scenarios in the playoffs.

Not quite the same this season, but they were out in the second round. Year before they weren't even in it.

Also, Bosh might never play again. Do you think he really wants to spend the rest of his career on a team going no where, just because he is loyal?

Yeah, I don't think Wade really wants to remain on the Heat going through his third rebuild with them. Not if the options included playing for multiple championships and getting right back into the mix.

He's never been a guy that's demanded max money or else.

But at the same time, he's gotta focus on his legacy. Leaving Miami, if it's done, really would have to be because Riley pushed him out.

 

[godfather]

Yeah, I don't think Wade really wants to remain on the Heat going through his third rebuild with them. Not if the options included playing for multiple championships and getting right back into the mix.

He's never been a guy that's demanded max money or else.

But at the same time, he's gotta focus on his legacy. Leaving Miami, if it's done, really would have to be because Riley pushed him out.

I'll never forget what Le Batard said after they got beat by the Celtics in the first round, before 'Bron showed up. Wade said I'm done with this, never again.

He was that disgusted with losing. He already had a title too.

People say he has his rings and all, but I don't think they understand how much he hates losing. He's competitive as hell.

I don't know if he's willing to leave a lot of money on the table though for it.

 

[blommen]

My only apprehensions regarding Wade are the same as they were last year:

1) I don't know that I would want to acquire a guard to put in the starting line-up who doesn't have a reliable 3 point game, and I don't think Wade wants to come off the bench.

2) I think we need to be careful with hiring aging players for our perimeter. At some point we will have to look for younger talent, and Wade as great as he is is nearing that point of his career where I start to expect the drop-off.


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[Walter White]

Calling it a pipe dream, I think, ignores the very real possibility of Wade leaving Miami. That team is entering a rebuild. Anything could happen.

Is it likely?

No. Not at all... but it's pretty far from a pipe dream coming off winning a title.

Think about it... what happens if Wade and Riley can't come to terms?

A 73 win team has a chance to sign Kevin freaking Durant, and we are talking about Wade coming to play with is best friend in Cleveland as the worst pipe dream ever? If anyone has been watching the NBA lately, it shows absolutely anything is possible. David West sacrificed like 12 million just to ride the bench in San Antonio.

If somebody is willing to pay Wade 20+ mil a year for another 2-3 years, it would be smart to take it. Not sure what he will get offered, but after he gets one more big contact, I could definitely see him coming to play with LeBron for a year or two after that.

Heat are in a tough spot because Whiteside will command a max. And with or without Whiteside or Wade, they aren't real contenders. Anything short of signing KD and another superstar which won't happen. And probably literally can't happen money wise. So how much money will Heat want to give Wade? Maybe they are willing to give him one more nice contract. But if there is only a 10-12 mil a year difference between signing with us or anyone else, we could be in heavy consideration right away. But if it's more of a 20 mil difference, like I said, he shouldn't pass that up. At least get that last big contract if you can before he plays with LeBron.

 

[gourimoko]

My only apprehensions regarding Wade are the same as they were last year:

1) I don't know that I would want to acquire a guard to put in the starting line-up who doesn't have a reliable 3 point game, and I don't think Wade wants to come off the bench.

Wade being in the starting lineup likely moves Tristan to the bench, not JR Smith.

James plays the 4 next to Wade more often than not.

2) I think we need to be careful with hiring aging players for our perimeter. At some point we will have to look for younger talent, and Wade as great as he is is nearing that point of his career where I start to expect the drop-off.

Wade coming to the Cavs is entirely about winning the title next year....

Wade makes James better. Wade can teach Kyrie a lot. I think the move makes us unquestionably the favorites assuming Durant doesn't go to Golden State.

 

[blommen]

Wade being in the starting lineup likely moves Tristan to the bench, not JR Smith.

James plays the 4 next to Wade more often than not.

At that point I would personally be afraid of losing a bit too much size at the 3 for us to properly be able to switch on defensive assignments. Wade is a great defender and supremely crafty on that end but I worry about his ability to defend bigger players proficiently. I suppose we could put JR at the 3 who is a bit bigger though, but that still seems like a very small line-up to me, and I would worry about teams exploiting that on defense.

Wade coming to the Cavs is entirely about winning the title next year....

Wade makes James better. Wade can teach Kyrie a lot. I think the move makes us unquestionably the favorites assuming Durant doesn't go to Golden State.

You make some good points and excuse me playing the Devils advocate a bit, but I was curious to hear people's viewpoints on the different dilemmas we face by bringing Wade on to the team.



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[gourimoko]

At that point I would personally be afraid of losing a bit too much size at the 3 for us to properly be able to switch on defensive assignments. Wade is a great defender and supremely crafty on that end but I worry about his ability to defend bigger players proficiently. I suppose we could put JR at the 3 who is a bit bigger though, but that still seems like a very small line-up to me, and I would worry about teams exploiting that on defense.

I don't disagree that you're giving up some size, however, out of curiosity, what team do you think could successfully turn an Irving/Wade/James/Love lineup into a net positive for them?

You make some good points and excuse me playing the Devils advocate a bit, but I was curious to hear people's viewpoints on the different dilemmas we face by bringing Wade on to the team.

Don't get me wrong, I love the debate and the thought that goes into it.

Critical thinking is all about questioning one's assumptions and conclusions... Nothing wrong with challenging those positions constantly.

 

[Jordan]

Decrease, significantly.

Wade needs a floor spacer just as much as James, if not more so. Having Wade on the wings means you really don't need anyone from the 1-4. So the only reason you'd trade Love is if an absolute ideal trade scenario came along.

Also, Wade's ability to pass in the post is one of his most gifted abilities. If we get Wade, Love will be a Cav until Dwyane and LBJ retire.

 

[gourimoko]

Also, Wade's ability to pass in the post is one of his most gifted abilities. If we get Wade, Love will be a Cav until Dwyane and LBJ retire.

Yes exactly, it's one of the points I was trying to get across. Wade helps Kyrie and Love, not the reverse. He worked excellently well with Chris Bosh.

 

[blommen]

I don't disagree that you're giving up some size, however, out of curiosity, what team do you think could successfully turn an Irving/Wade/James/Love lineup into a net positive for

I guess specifically I'm wary at the prospect of a GS Backcourt consisting of Klay, Draymond and Durant overwhelming us on length. I realize this is by no means set in stone but with the news coming out of OKC regarding Ibaka I must admit I'm more than a little worried about going that small. If that happens I would actually say that getting an elite perimeter defender to hold Durant in check becomes our top priority. If that happens I expect us to pursue the Butler deal hard