The 2013 NBA Finals Thread (Spurs vs Heat)

[TwoPistols]

I don't know why people think the Heat will win. I guess you guys are all mentally prepping for it as the worst case scenario. Spurs in 6 is my worst case scenario. I would be a bit surprised by a sweep, but it wouldn't totally shock me. They have no answer for Duncan or Parker. They won't be able to get away with double-teaming the post like they did to Hibbert and West because the Spurs ball movement is absurd, and they also space the floor really well unlike the Pacers. Leonard and Green are capable of keeping Lebron in check, and that's all they really need to do. Pops been able to sit back and watch the Indy/Miami series for over a week now. I'm sure he has a great idea of how to beat the Heat.

People are going to cry about this, but the Spurs just swept the Grizzlies, who are a very similar team to the Pacers. Both are big men oriented, physical, defensive teams with weak outside shooting. Heat struggled mightily with the Pacers. The Pacers have nowhere near the experience of the Spurs, lack the PG play, and outside shooting. I'm really not concerned about Miami winning the title at all.

 

[bigfoot5415]

I don't know why people think the Heat will win. I guess you guys are all mentally prepping for it as the worst case scenario. Spurs in 6 is my worst case scenario. I would be a bit surprised by a sweep, but it wouldn't totally shock me. They have no answer for Duncan or Parker. They won't be able to get away with double-teaming the post like they did to Hibbert and West because the Spurs ball movement is absurd, and they also space the floor really well unlike the Pacers. Leonard and Green are capable of keeping Lebron in check, and that's all they really need to do. Pops been able to sit back and watch the Indy/Miami series for over a week now. I'm sure he has a great idea of how to beat the Heat.

People are going to cry about this, but the Spurs just swept the Grizzlies, who are a very similar team to the Pacers. Both are big men oriented, physical, defensive teams with weak outside shooting. Heat struggled mightily with the Pacers. The Pacers have nowhere near the experience of the Spurs, lack the PG play, and outside shooting. I'm really not concerned about Miami winning the title at all.

Not only are Duncan & Splitter superior passers, but they are also greater off the ball than Hibbert & West. This would result in one of them moving while the other is being double teamed.

As a whole the Spurs have higher bball IQ. Theyre not going to stand on the perimeter & watch Duncan get double teamed like the Pacers did. Parker & Ginobili are going to cut down the lane. Spurs are also superior ball handlers, and have better hands. They will have less TOs dribbing the ball, and have less of a problem catching the ball in the post.

If Parker gets shut down by Bron, I expect a heavy dose of Tim Duncan. If they focus on double teams, then their shooters will have a field day. It took Miami 7 games, and to get Hot in game 7 to beat the Pacers. I cant imagine them being able to beat a team with such high IQ, superior post talent, and better guard play.


ALL HAIL TRACY MCGRADY!!!!

 

[Kepler]

Spurs in 6.

Spurs haven't even played TMAC.

 

[TwoPistols]

Spurs in 6.

Spurs haven't even played TMAC.

I read this as T-Mac is a secret weapon.

They are about to unleash prime T-Mac on the Heat. Makes me more confident.

 

[jay_em]

I don't know why people think the Heat will win. I guess you guys are all mentally prepping for it as the worst case scenario. Spurs in 6 is my worst case scenario. I would be a bit surprised by a sweep, but it wouldn't totally shock me. They have no answer for Duncan or Parker. They won't be able to get away with double-teaming the post like they did to Hibbert and West because the Spurs ball movement is absurd, and they also space the floor really well unlike the Pacers. Leonard and Green are capable of keeping Lebron in check, and that's all they really need to do. Pops been able to sit back and watch the Indy/Miami series for over a week now. I'm sure he has a great idea of how to beat the Heat.

People are going to cry about this, but the Spurs just swept the Grizzlies, who are a very similar team to the Pacers. Both are big men oriented, physical, defensive teams with weak outside shooting. Heat struggled mightily with the Pacers. The Pacers have nowhere near the experience of the Spurs, lack the PG play, and outside shooting. I'm really not concerned about Miami winning the title at all.

As a Duke fan, I wont hammer you :chuckles:, but really a sweep? C'mon Dukie that is really hard to imagine. I know it was hard to imagine the Grizzles getting swept, but the Heat are NOT the Grizzlies. If I was a betting man I would put much of it on AAA and South Beach hosting the NBA Championship celebrations for the 3rd time in 3 seasons...unless Wade and Bosh are OUT for multiple games.

 

[Mdog1]

I voted Mia in 6, but hoping for a 7 game seies either way. I just can't fathom Bosh being THAT bad again for a whole series. Wade's obviously injured, but if he plays every game like he did last night it's Heat in 4. I don't see that happening though.

 

[Randolphkeys]

This will be close, 6 or 7 game series. One question I can't get over: how rusty will the Spurs be after the long layoff? Can they surprise the Heat with a road win in the first two games? If I knew the answer I'd pick a winner.

I do think the Spurs are built to attack the Heat small ball lineup. You have to go right at LeBron when he defensively is forced to defend power forwards. Pops will devise ways to do that.

 

[Surge]

Miami in 3.

Beatings so severe, San Antonio will forfeit game 4.

 

[billmac91]

This will be close, 6 or 7 game series. One question I can't get over: how rusty will the Spurs be after the long layoff? Can they surprise the Heat with a road win in the first two games? If I knew the answer I'd pick a winner.

I do think the Spurs are built to attack the Heat small ball lineup. You have to go right at LeBron when he defensively is forced to defend power forwards. Pops will devise ways to do that.

I disagree about attacking LeBron when he is guarding the 4. LeBron actually does a great job of fronting the post and expends a ton of energy to hold his own. The Pacers looked like shit every time LeBron was guarding David West because they'd get stagnant trying to force the ball into him. And when West did get it, he wasn't as successful as when he had traditional bigs banging against him. It was also a disaster last year when Kendrick Perkins thought he was Lou Alcindor when LeBron was defending him. Some mathc-ups just don;t need to be exploited.

Honestly, if LeBron is busy defending the 4, I'm attacking on the perimeter since he's not there to step in lanes. I think it's fools gold to force the ball inside against him.

 

[Randolphkeys]

I disagree about attacking LeBron when he is guarding the 4. LeBron actually does a great job of fronting the post and expends a ton of energy to hold his own. The Pacers looked like shit every time LeBron was guarding David West because they'd get stagnant trying to force the ball into him. And when West did get it, he wasn't as successful as when he had traditional bigs banging against him. It was also a disaster last year when Kendrick Perkins thought he was Lou Alcindor when LeBron was defending him. Some mathc-ups just don;t need to be exploited.

Honestly, if LeBron is busy defending the 4, I'm attacking on the perimeter since he's not there to step in lanes. I think it's fools gold to force the ball inside against him.

Its not just about scoring, its about getting LeBron in foul trouble early. I do think the passing of the Spurs perimeter will create better opportunities than what the Pacers did in that series. Pacers are an inside out team and have been all year. The problem is Hill and Stephenson aren't close to the talents that Parker and Ginobili will be.

 

[MDLT]

My concern with the Spurs is that if Leonard ever gets in foul trouble (Stern: "He will"), then who can possibly guard James in that case? They have no one else - he's literally their only SF.

 

[Rich]

Its not just about scoring, its about getting LeBron in foul trouble early. I do think the passing of the Spurs perimeter will create better opportunities than what the Pacers did in that series. Pacers are an inside out team and have been all year. The problem is Hill and Stephenson aren't close to the talents that Parker and Ginobili will be.

I'm not in on the NBA conspiracy stuff, I just think the refs suck. But I do know that LeBron getting in foul trouble, no matter what he does, is about as common as a 9.0 earthquake. Yea, happened last series. But that probably means there is no chance it will happen in this one.

 

[billmac91]

My concern with the Spurs is that if Leonard ever gets in foul trouble (Stern: "He will"), then who can possibly guard James in that case? They have no one else - he's literally their only SF.

I think they go 2007 Spurs at that point which was let LeBron get his but don't give up lay ups to cutters or open threes on the perimeter. It's actually reminiscent of 2007 in that Bruce Bowen was their stopper. Like 2007, when Bowen was out of the game, I expect it will be a committee....Ginoboli and Danny Green will likely be the sacrificial lambs out of necessity. I imagine Popovich substitutes Leonard in a similar pattern as Lebron to keep him fresh. I also imagine Popovich will verse Leonard very well on the importance of avoiding foul trouble. LeBron will be dared to take a lot of jump shots this series...guaranteed.

One other thing I wouldn't rule out, just because Pop is the master of unknown, is zone. I could very easily see the Spurs going into a zone for short minutes with Leonard on the bench. They don't play zone, but then again, they've had 10 days off and Pop loves to mix things up. It could be reminiscent of the Dallas series when Marion went to the bench and JJ Barea was on the floor. They went matchup zone and dared Miami to shoot. I have fond memories of LeBron taking jumps shots over Barea at the top of the key late in the clock.

Pop is all about percentages. Expect some "hack a bird man" too when he's in the game. Guy has to fall back to earth eventually....

 

[Randolphkeys]

I'm not in on the NBA conspiracy stuff, I just think the refs suck. But I do know that LeBron getting in foul trouble, no matter what he does, is about as common as a 9.0 earthquake. Yea, happened last series. But that probably means there is no chance it will happen in this one.

In basketball, the refs can turn a blind eye to fouls away from the ball or incidental contact. LeBron is very good at this point in his career at limiting those type of fouls. But, when he challenges shots close to the basket against a taller opponent, it is hard for the refs to ignore.

I think the Heat are certainly the favorites, I was just breaking down what I think Popovich will try to do: quick passing that leads to LeBron isolated defending the hoop without one of his goons around to take the foul instead.

 

[mhi]

Don't see how the Spurs who almost tilted against a bunch of young perimeter athletes in GSW will be able to handle Lebron.

Look for MIA to try and get their shooters going next, and if it happens, SAS is in for a long series as they don't have the speed (their core) to make the rotations. I want to see how Pop can mix and match his role players (young and athletic, but dumb) and his core (old, slow but smart) to get what he needs out of every unit.

That being said I can see most games coming down to the wire with the team having the best crunch time lineup (least liabilities, on both ends of the floor), taking the games.